In Times Of Recession, Go For Broke

For the last few years the Dolphins have had a weakness at wide receiver, and before that they had a weakness on the D-line, and before that they had a weakness on the O-line, and yadda yadda, I could go on forever.  It's not unusual for any (or all) NFL team(s) to have a missing link and/or be known for being weak at a particular area for more than one season at a time, often several seasons at a time.  And as long as any given team has such a reputation, its fans have blogged, commented, called-in, shouted from the rooftops, etc, that the team needed to spend a huge chunk of money or draft picks on [insert name of whoever best player in the NFL at that position is]. 

Case in point, for at least 3 years, Dolfans the world over have recognized the scrawny Dolphins wide receiver unit and played at-home GM, making it evidently clear that the Dolphins should trade for Anquan Boldin, the former Arizona Cardinal.  Boldin, of course, provided the easiest possible answer to Miami's problems.  He was a local kid, was big, tough, and made big plays on a regular basis.  He also wanted to be the #1 receiver, and being on a team with Larry Fitzgerald, that was unlikely to happen.

I was not in this camp of thought, however, understanding that a trade for Boldin would've cost too much.  For starters, with a salary cap in place, a Boldin contract would've caused immediate problems elsewhere on the roster - you'd have to sacrifice more than one solid vet to accomodate Boldin's paycheck.  Secondly, the draft picks lost would've set Miami back dramatically - can you imagine if in 2009 we didn't have the draft picks to get Vontae Davis and Sean Smith because we had traded them to get Boldin?

This is why it may have seemed surprising, nay, shocking at first when the Dolphins signed Brandon Marshall.  Two 2nd round draft picks and a massive contract similar to what Boldin would've requested a couple of seasons ago (keep in mind that recent injuries drove down the Boldin price tag) seemed out of sync with what the Trifecta values.  But when you look a bit further you'll see why the deal made sense now for Marshall and not two years ago for Boldin.

Keep in mind that 2 years ago, Boldin would've cost the same as Marshall got - 2 high draft picks and $8M to $10M per season.  However, this year a few things worked out for the Dolphins that allowed them to make the deal:

1.  No Salary Cap.  While this allowed teams to cut their costs as much as they wanted, it allowed them also to overspend, or at least be a little more adventurous with their money.

2.  A very deep draft and loads of late round picks.  The Dolphins knew that they could trade a 2nd round pick this year where a 1st round would've been required the year before.  That combined with their high 1st round pick meant they were pretty confident they could get a 1st round talent like Marshall for a 2nd, and then trade their other picks to get back the quality they hoped for in the draft.  Bottom line, in 2008, the only offer Arizona would listen to for Boldin was a  1st and a 3rd, minimum.  

3. Arizona didn't want to lose Boldin.  Denver, on the other hand, led by boy-genius Josh McDaniel, couldn't wait to get rid of Marshall.

Also, there's the intangibles - Boldin too often fumbles the ball, has had concussions, knee injuries, back injuries, etc.  Marshall is a number 1 WR - Boldin is just now coming into that role.  Think of TJ Houshmandzadeh leaving Cincinnati where he was brilliant and being the guy in Seattle, where he was rubbish.  Marshall didn't have a lot of help in Denver, he pretty much was the guy.  Marshall has 4 inches and 13lbs on Boldin.  Boldin is more of a bruiser whilst Marshall is more of a finesse player - something to keep in mind when thinking of the longevity of a player in a skill position.  

Still, Marshall will be the highest paid Dolphin skill player for the next 5 years, making $5.1M, $10.6M, $10.1M, $10.2M, and $10.2M over the course of his contract (and this is not taking into consideration any escalators/incentives we don't know about).  It's the kind of thing that probably irks Ronnie Brown, and makes Davone Bess look like nickel-plating compared to Marshall's platinum.  

Marshall will be under a lot of pressure from fans and the media simply because of his contract.  The Dolphins will be forced to use him according to that contract in order to get any kind of value out of the deal.  You don't pay a WR $10M per year unless you intend to win the Super Bowl during the course of that contract and intend on that WR being the driving force behind that push.

Think of what the Jets have been doing the past 3 years, paying out the big bucks in order to get to that level.  The Dolphins are doing the same thing, though in a slightly different way, choosing to spend the money on key players in an attempt to get the overall make-up right rather than just getting as many top-flight players under one roof as imaginable.  Marshall, Karlos Dansby, Jake Long - these are some of the high-priced anchors that the Trifecta hopes will elevate the rest of the team - bottom line, a guy who wants the big contract could look to his left and see what kind of production he needs to contribute in order to get there.  

Sometimes you have to spend money to make money, or in this case, get quality payback.