Blessed and Highly Favored - or - The Saints Are Coming! The Saints Are Coming!

One of the best things about playing a team twice in the season is that as a blogger, I get to recycle some of my first match-up article for use on the second match-up. Unfortunately, when we met the Saints in week 4 of the pre-season, both teams fielded a completely different version of themselves so I can't do that here.

We didn't face Drew Brees and his assortment of receiving goodies, and we didn't face what has turned into one of the top defenses in the NFL. We faced the 2nd and 3rd stringers, and the hapless Joey Harrington. At one point they wheeled Mark Brunell onto the field, and we took advantage. It's amazing how the team with arguably the best starting QB in the league had such mediocre depth at the position. They have since gotten rid of Harrington and have Brunell and Chase Daniel as the back-ups.

I'm not going to lie to you. Miami's best shot at winning this game is for Brees to get food poisoning mere minutes before the game.

Even that may not be enough. I'm by no means a Saints fan, but they have several things going for them that make them an intimidating opponent.

The Receiving Corps
Not to take anything away from Brees, but just about any QB would look good with this group of receivers. Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, and of course Jeremy Shockey are the main event but they use running backs, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Heath Evans in the passing game as well. The ability to put 8 or 9 legitimate receiving threats on the field in a game is one of the tactical advantages New Orleans brings to the game. The wide receivers make the kinds of plays that show up on highlight reels on a consistent basis. Brees knows he can put the ball up for them to make a play on it, and they will make the effort to get it. In watching the Giants/Saints game this past week, you can see Brees time and again making throws that most people would expect to fall incomplete or be intercepted. But for the most part, his receivers were ready for the early throw, or battled it out for the deep lob.

The Defensive Backfield
Eli Manning had tons of time to make throws, and went deep time and again, and the Saints secondary was all over it. Talk about speed - Jabari Greer looks like he's found new legs, and Tracy Porter continues to be the best cornerback you've never heard of in the NFL. Starting safeties Roman Harper and Darren Sharper seem to be in a perpetual cover-2 scheme, making the deep ball very tough to place. But there is another dimension to the Saints' DBs - the Blitz. Sean Payton sends blitzes frequently and from all different angles. The safety blitz is something the Dolphins can expect to see a good ten times a game, and they will blitz a nickel corner a few times as well.

These two units, combined with Drew Brees' quiet leadership and poise, and very accurate, very brave passing, and Sean Payton's coaching, is my opinion on why the Saints are undefeated and getting the media buzz they are. Being unstoppable in the passing game, and preventing other teams from passing on them makes for a pretty harsh opponent.

But since I only pointed out two specific units as strengths, you can probably foresee that I'm about to point out more weaknesses than you can shake a stick at (I don't know what that cliche actually means, but it fits here, right?).

Weaknesses

Offensive Line
This isn't a bad group, but they're not that great either. Pro-Bowler Jammal Brown is on injured reserve, and while the rest of the group has been moving the chains, I wasn't impressed with the pass-protection I saw from them. Brees gets hit a lot. They're not forming a pocket around him. And a lot of their running game comes from the outside. It will be work, but there's no reason why we won't have a good chance at getting pressure and limiting their running game.

The Linebackers
If Scott Fujita can't go on Sunday, then backup Troy Evans takes over. Johnathan Vilma is on pace to end up with 50 fewer tackles than last year. These guys are not really designed to stuff a power running game coming off a Bye week. If we can get past their defensive line, we should be able to push for extra yardage. They're also not a huge pass-rush threat, though the Saints will find other ways to create pressure, as mentioned above.

Special Teams
This could be the first time we face an opponent this year with worse kick coverage than ourselves. They looked awful vs the Giants, allowing Dominic Hixon to rack up 230 yards on 7 kick returns and 51 yards on 2 punt returns. Considering this will be Ted Ginn's first opportunity at more than one return in a game, there could be opportunity here for the Dolphins.

Reggie Bush
What's strange to me is that Bush is listed first on the Saints depth chart when basically all he does is return punts and run for negative yardage. I don't understand the Saints love-affair with Bush, especially considering Miami's hate affair with Ginn. Say what you like but Ginn has made more of an impact than Bush has for their respective teams. In fact, I would go as far as to say that the Saints having Bush active is much the same as the Dolphins having Pat White active on game days, so they sort of cancel each other out.

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Ok, here's the deal. The Saints are a damn good football team. But they are not unbeatable. They win by having a very balanced offense, and running a lot of play action. which sets up big plays down the field. Basically a very normal, un-gimmicky offense that is just executed very well. If an opponent facing them was able to do the same thing, then they'd have a good shot at defeating them. That opponent might as well be the Dolphins.

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INJURY REPORT - FRIDAY, 10/23/09

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins

New Orleans
Questionable: LB Scott Fujita (calf), CB Malcolm Jenkins (ankle)
Probable: LB Jonathan Casillas (calf), TE Jeremy Shockey (shoulder), CB Leigh Torrence (hamstring), DE Jeff Charleston (rib), G Jahri Evans (toe), LS Jason Kyle (knee, ankle), P Thomas Morstead (right ankle)

Miami
No injuries to report.

Climbing Mount Olympus - or - Facing the Atlanta Falcons

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Ok, time to get down to the nitty-gritty, the bottom line, the heart of the matter, the quintessential truth that is the Miami Dolphins first matchup of the regular season.  

The Atlanta Falcons are good.  In fact, they're QUITE good.  They offer several mismatches for the Dolphins, and other than the season finale versus the Steelers, I can think of no tougher matchup for the Dolphins.  Don't get me wrong - I don't think the Falcons are as good of a team as the Steelers, but I do think the Dolphins have the most issues 'mano a mano' with the Falcons, and I will begin the discussion below, and offer a simplified game-plan to counteract these mismatches and hopefully produce a win.  I do believe a win vs Atlanta would be the first step to a successful season, and ultimately would end the media's obsession with believing Mike Smith was/is a better coach than Tony Sparano.  I'm doing this today, because I believe this is the discussion we all care about now, or at least should be caring about now, and I believe we'll still be talking about it after the next five days leading up to the game.

Where do I start with the Falcons?  The obvious thing would be to say how great their offense is, but since it's so obvious, let's start with the defense.  

Mismatch #1.  John Abraham vs. Jake Long.  Think of Long facing Abraham as the equivalent of him facing Joey Porter.  Abraham and Porter are neck and neck in career sacks, and last year they were neck and neck as well, with Porter edging out Abraham's 16.5 sacks with 17.5 of his own.  But there's a big difference.  Atlanta runs a 4-3 and Abraham is a sure tackler and run stopper as well.  This means no downs off for Long, who will have Abraham plus blitzes from Mike Peterson to deal with.  While there's no doubt Long can step up to the task, the task will be unrelenting.  Atlanta's biggest defensive weakness is it's depth, so the starters will likely play as much as possible.

Mismatch # 2.  Peria Jerry vs. Jake Grove.  Anyone who's been following Peria Jerry knows this rookie has been pretty much unstoppable in the pre-season.  In fact, he's looked like instead of stepping up to the NFL, he's been transplanted into a high school game level of competition.  For Miami to keep Chad Pennington upright, it's not just the ends they have to worry about.  Atlanta has been getting most of it's pressure up the middle, as Jerry has been unblockable one-on-one.  Obviously there's the ramifications of broken lanes versus the run as well.  For Miami to move the ball they'll have a very big challenge in controlling the line of scrimmage.

Mismatch # 3.  Matt Ryan vs. Miami's Secondary.  I'm not worried about applying pressure so much as I am about Ryan's ability to fire lasers.  I was not really impressed by his rookie numbers all that much, but seeing his throws, you can't help but be impressed.  He throws bullets that get there in a hurry.  The Falcons receivers can get deep in a hurry and Ryan's throws don't usually give safeties and corners time to recover even on the slightest misstep. 

Mismatch # 4.  Michael Turner vs. Miami's Linebackers.  The one thing I noticed as the biggest strength of the Falcons during the pre-season was their offensive line just completely dominating the line of scrimmage.  While I have no doubt that Langford, Ferguson or Starks could wrap up the bruising running back, the truth is it's likely they'll be blocked off and he will get to the second level more often than not.  The key here is if the combo of JT, Crowder, Ayodele and Porter can wrap up Turner and his reliable backup Norwood and not allow them to drag out an extra 3 or 4 yards. 

Mismatch # 5.  Tony Gonzalez vs. the Miami Dolphins.  In five regular season match-ups, Tony Gonzalez has been a thorn in the side of the Miami Dolphins, averaging 5.6 catches for 75.2 yards and a shave under a TD a game.  Most of us will never forget the 7 catch, 140yard, 3 TD game he burned us on a few years back.  And he hasn't really lost a step, in fact, he's gotten bigger and stronger, in my estimation, and has looked to be a very big part of the Falcons offense.  Joey Porter and JT can't cover this guy, and as they'll probably be rushing the passer anyway, I doubt Yeremiah Bell could cover him on his own either.  The problem with Gonzalez is that he plays football like he's playing basketball.  He doesn't look to get wide open, he simply looks to get in front of the defender and create a passing lane.  Once he's done that he uses his long arms to reach for the ball, keeping it safely away from any defenders reaching in.  As long as he can 'post up', he's unstoppable.

So those are the main concerns I have heading into week 1.  Yes, Roddy White is a fantastic young receiver with the rare combo of speed and size, but his success actually will hinge on some of the things already mentioned above, i.e. the O-line giving Ryan time to wind up (he has a slow motion but a rocket release as well as the running game opening up the passing game.

So, how do we get around these mismatches?  Well, I'm a strong believer in doing whatever it takes to win the game, and sometimes it's not all about winning more battles than the other guy, but winning the right ones.  So here is my game-plan for overcoming this tough week 1 opponent (please chime in with your own strategies):

The biggest battle in any football game is the battle for control.  Controlling the line of scrimmage, controlling time of possession, and controlling mistakes.  Any team that can do these three things is in pretty good shape to come out on top at the end of the game.  It's often not as apparent as in a basketball game - consider the LOS is the rebound in bball.  If a basketball team out-rebounds, controls the possession clock, and commits fewer turnovers/fouls than the other team, it's practically a guaranteed win.  So the Dolphins have to do that as goal number one in every game.  This is the foundation.  Long offensive drives, the defense getting off the field on 3rd downs, no penalties and turnovers.  That's how you get the law of averages on your side.  But I know it's easier said than done.

Now, onto the mismatches that Atlanta presents:

1.  There must be an additional blocker in the backfield. ON EVERY DOWN!  Long is good but shouldn't be left alone in this fight.  Ronnie Brown is the best stand-up blocker option here.  Polite can move people when he's running downhill, and Haynos' height can be an issue in the backfield.  Brown also presents the best check-down option and would help to keep the defenders honest as they look for the screen.

2.  This one isn't as simple.  The thing here is for Grove to try to get Jerry to bounce over to Donald Thomas, taking him out of the direct middle.  Thomas' upper body strength would then be better matched for the bull-rushing Peria.  Vernon Carey, meanwhile, should push the left end out to the tight end/perimeter, and offer help on either Jerry or the aforementioned end.  This should allow a gaping hole up the middle for Ronnie Brown to burst through.  Also effective here would be an I-formation play action.  Having Polite as reinforcement in the middle, the tailback would fake the run then ease into open space for the checkdown if no one was open downfield.

3.  No doubt this is the key that the media will hone in on as the biggest game-breaker.  but obviously it's not.  As good as Ryan is, Atlanta is not going to come out trying to throw the ball 40 times.  They are a run first team.  The key to Ryan not having a stunner of a game is actually to stop the run.  Without the play-action fake, the Falcons receivers should be matched up well by Will Allen and Sean Smith.  Allen's close coverage and Smith's rangy arms will make any quick passing to the outside relatively dangerous.  So ultimately the key to stopping Ryan is to stop Turner first, then throw the sink at Ryan in an effort to force quick throws.  I know this sounds pedestrian, but Atlanta's o-line will not allow it to be so.

4. Turner is a bruiser, and Norwood is an excellent change of pace.  Once again, the key here is fundamentals.  The linebackers have to tackle quickly and sharply.  There should be no heads-down launching at these guys.  They need to be wrapped up and that starts with good positioning.  The LBs need to 'stay at home' so to speak so as not to over-run any plays.  Remember that messy play vs Carolina in the pre-season when Deangelo Williams should've been stopped in the backfield but bounced out to score from 28 yards out?  Exactly the kind of thing we should try to avoid by not over pursuing.  I'd much rather give Turner 2 or 3 yards all day long than have him break on or two big plays due to poor tackling and bad positions.

5.  Like I said above, it's not about winning all the battles, just the right ones.  Despite Gonzalez's domination in the NFL, the truth is, it didn't really help his team win games or make any of his quarterbacks look good.  He is unstoppable in man-coverage, unless you get between him and the QB.  This goes hand in hand with the LBs staying at home like I mentioned in point # 4.  Do not leave the middle of the field unprotected in the 5 to 10 yard range from the LOS.  Gonzalez almost always runs dead center about 7 yards and posts up.  The best defense against this is to get in the passing lane.  Obviously this can't be done on every play, and ultimately, this mismatch shouldn't be considered a top-priority.  Let him get 80 yards receiving.  Without the big plays down the field and the strength of the running game minimized, it won't matter in the end.  

It's all about controlling what you can control.  Time of possession, mental errors, line of scrimmage.  By doing these things, we should be scoring points as a result.  He who scores the most wins the game.

Tin's Score Predictor:     MIA 27  ATL 31