Climbing Mount Olympus - or - Facing the Atlanta Falcons

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Ok, time to get down to the nitty-gritty, the bottom line, the heart of the matter, the quintessential truth that is the Miami Dolphins first matchup of the regular season.  

The Atlanta Falcons are good.  In fact, they're QUITE good.  They offer several mismatches for the Dolphins, and other than the season finale versus the Steelers, I can think of no tougher matchup for the Dolphins.  Don't get me wrong - I don't think the Falcons are as good of a team as the Steelers, but I do think the Dolphins have the most issues 'mano a mano' with the Falcons, and I will begin the discussion below, and offer a simplified game-plan to counteract these mismatches and hopefully produce a win.  I do believe a win vs Atlanta would be the first step to a successful season, and ultimately would end the media's obsession with believing Mike Smith was/is a better coach than Tony Sparano.  I'm doing this today, because I believe this is the discussion we all care about now, or at least should be caring about now, and I believe we'll still be talking about it after the next five days leading up to the game.

Where do I start with the Falcons?  The obvious thing would be to say how great their offense is, but since it's so obvious, let's start with the defense.  

Mismatch #1.  John Abraham vs. Jake Long.  Think of Long facing Abraham as the equivalent of him facing Joey Porter.  Abraham and Porter are neck and neck in career sacks, and last year they were neck and neck as well, with Porter edging out Abraham's 16.5 sacks with 17.5 of his own.  But there's a big difference.  Atlanta runs a 4-3 and Abraham is a sure tackler and run stopper as well.  This means no downs off for Long, who will have Abraham plus blitzes from Mike Peterson to deal with.  While there's no doubt Long can step up to the task, the task will be unrelenting.  Atlanta's biggest defensive weakness is it's depth, so the starters will likely play as much as possible.

Mismatch # 2.  Peria Jerry vs. Jake Grove.  Anyone who's been following Peria Jerry knows this rookie has been pretty much unstoppable in the pre-season.  In fact, he's looked like instead of stepping up to the NFL, he's been transplanted into a high school game level of competition.  For Miami to keep Chad Pennington upright, it's not just the ends they have to worry about.  Atlanta has been getting most of it's pressure up the middle, as Jerry has been unblockable one-on-one.  Obviously there's the ramifications of broken lanes versus the run as well.  For Miami to move the ball they'll have a very big challenge in controlling the line of scrimmage.

Mismatch # 3.  Matt Ryan vs. Miami's Secondary.  I'm not worried about applying pressure so much as I am about Ryan's ability to fire lasers.  I was not really impressed by his rookie numbers all that much, but seeing his throws, you can't help but be impressed.  He throws bullets that get there in a hurry.  The Falcons receivers can get deep in a hurry and Ryan's throws don't usually give safeties and corners time to recover even on the slightest misstep. 

Mismatch # 4.  Michael Turner vs. Miami's Linebackers.  The one thing I noticed as the biggest strength of the Falcons during the pre-season was their offensive line just completely dominating the line of scrimmage.  While I have no doubt that Langford, Ferguson or Starks could wrap up the bruising running back, the truth is it's likely they'll be blocked off and he will get to the second level more often than not.  The key here is if the combo of JT, Crowder, Ayodele and Porter can wrap up Turner and his reliable backup Norwood and not allow them to drag out an extra 3 or 4 yards. 

Mismatch # 5.  Tony Gonzalez vs. the Miami Dolphins.  In five regular season match-ups, Tony Gonzalez has been a thorn in the side of the Miami Dolphins, averaging 5.6 catches for 75.2 yards and a shave under a TD a game.  Most of us will never forget the 7 catch, 140yard, 3 TD game he burned us on a few years back.  And he hasn't really lost a step, in fact, he's gotten bigger and stronger, in my estimation, and has looked to be a very big part of the Falcons offense.  Joey Porter and JT can't cover this guy, and as they'll probably be rushing the passer anyway, I doubt Yeremiah Bell could cover him on his own either.  The problem with Gonzalez is that he plays football like he's playing basketball.  He doesn't look to get wide open, he simply looks to get in front of the defender and create a passing lane.  Once he's done that he uses his long arms to reach for the ball, keeping it safely away from any defenders reaching in.  As long as he can 'post up', he's unstoppable.

So those are the main concerns I have heading into week 1.  Yes, Roddy White is a fantastic young receiver with the rare combo of speed and size, but his success actually will hinge on some of the things already mentioned above, i.e. the O-line giving Ryan time to wind up (he has a slow motion but a rocket release as well as the running game opening up the passing game.

So, how do we get around these mismatches?  Well, I'm a strong believer in doing whatever it takes to win the game, and sometimes it's not all about winning more battles than the other guy, but winning the right ones.  So here is my game-plan for overcoming this tough week 1 opponent (please chime in with your own strategies):

The biggest battle in any football game is the battle for control.  Controlling the line of scrimmage, controlling time of possession, and controlling mistakes.  Any team that can do these three things is in pretty good shape to come out on top at the end of the game.  It's often not as apparent as in a basketball game - consider the LOS is the rebound in bball.  If a basketball team out-rebounds, controls the possession clock, and commits fewer turnovers/fouls than the other team, it's practically a guaranteed win.  So the Dolphins have to do that as goal number one in every game.  This is the foundation.  Long offensive drives, the defense getting off the field on 3rd downs, no penalties and turnovers.  That's how you get the law of averages on your side.  But I know it's easier said than done.

Now, onto the mismatches that Atlanta presents:

1.  There must be an additional blocker in the backfield. ON EVERY DOWN!  Long is good but shouldn't be left alone in this fight.  Ronnie Brown is the best stand-up blocker option here.  Polite can move people when he's running downhill, and Haynos' height can be an issue in the backfield.  Brown also presents the best check-down option and would help to keep the defenders honest as they look for the screen.

2.  This one isn't as simple.  The thing here is for Grove to try to get Jerry to bounce over to Donald Thomas, taking him out of the direct middle.  Thomas' upper body strength would then be better matched for the bull-rushing Peria.  Vernon Carey, meanwhile, should push the left end out to the tight end/perimeter, and offer help on either Jerry or the aforementioned end.  This should allow a gaping hole up the middle for Ronnie Brown to burst through.  Also effective here would be an I-formation play action.  Having Polite as reinforcement in the middle, the tailback would fake the run then ease into open space for the checkdown if no one was open downfield.

3.  No doubt this is the key that the media will hone in on as the biggest game-breaker.  but obviously it's not.  As good as Ryan is, Atlanta is not going to come out trying to throw the ball 40 times.  They are a run first team.  The key to Ryan not having a stunner of a game is actually to stop the run.  Without the play-action fake, the Falcons receivers should be matched up well by Will Allen and Sean Smith.  Allen's close coverage and Smith's rangy arms will make any quick passing to the outside relatively dangerous.  So ultimately the key to stopping Ryan is to stop Turner first, then throw the sink at Ryan in an effort to force quick throws.  I know this sounds pedestrian, but Atlanta's o-line will not allow it to be so.

4. Turner is a bruiser, and Norwood is an excellent change of pace.  Once again, the key here is fundamentals.  The linebackers have to tackle quickly and sharply.  There should be no heads-down launching at these guys.  They need to be wrapped up and that starts with good positioning.  The LBs need to 'stay at home' so to speak so as not to over-run any plays.  Remember that messy play vs Carolina in the pre-season when Deangelo Williams should've been stopped in the backfield but bounced out to score from 28 yards out?  Exactly the kind of thing we should try to avoid by not over pursuing.  I'd much rather give Turner 2 or 3 yards all day long than have him break on or two big plays due to poor tackling and bad positions.

5.  Like I said above, it's not about winning all the battles, just the right ones.  Despite Gonzalez's domination in the NFL, the truth is, it didn't really help his team win games or make any of his quarterbacks look good.  He is unstoppable in man-coverage, unless you get between him and the QB.  This goes hand in hand with the LBs staying at home like I mentioned in point # 4.  Do not leave the middle of the field unprotected in the 5 to 10 yard range from the LOS.  Gonzalez almost always runs dead center about 7 yards and posts up.  The best defense against this is to get in the passing lane.  Obviously this can't be done on every play, and ultimately, this mismatch shouldn't be considered a top-priority.  Let him get 80 yards receiving.  Without the big plays down the field and the strength of the running game minimized, it won't matter in the end.  

It's all about controlling what you can control.  Time of possession, mental errors, line of scrimmage.  By doing these things, we should be scoring points as a result.  He who scores the most wins the game.

Tin's Score Predictor:     MIA 27  ATL 31