Pulling Out The Lynchpin - or - The Bills Are Coming, The Bills Are Coming! Updated 10/2/09 @ 2pmEST

So, the Bills, our biggest AFC East rivals of the 1990s, will be sliding into homeplate....oh, scratch that...the infield should be AWOL from Landshark Stadium for Sunday's game.

This will be a heart-warming reunion between Bill Parcells and one of his favorite all-time players, Terrell Owens.  It will also be the first game of 2009 for Bills' running back, Marshawn Lynch (photo on right).

The talking heads are saying 'WATCH OUT' for Lynch as he's coming in with fresh legs.  I look at it a different way.  While the Dolphins D has been stout versus the run, and is at week 4 stride-wise, the troubled Bills' back will come in in week 1 shape and speed.  I'm not really worried about Lynch, to be honest.  He has not really been successful against the Dolphins, and I doubt he'll be given the full load in his first appearance anyway.  Not to mention his replacement, Fred Jackson, has been pretty spectacular in Lynch's absence.

The most notable thing about this game is the injury list.  It will play a major factor because our former backup QB will get his first start against the Bills backup secondary.  Don't think the Dolphins won't be playing that card.  Here's a look at the injuries with my speculation on whetehr they'll play or not:

Miami    - Joey Porter (hamstring/questionable),  Chad Pennington (shoulder/injured reserve)

Buffalo  - Donte Whitner (thumb/out), Bryan Scott (ankle/out), Leodis McKelvin (fibula/out), Paul Posluzny (forearm/out), Kyle Williams (groin/questionable), Demetrius Bell (groin/out), John McCargo, (calf/out), Shawn Nelson (shoulder/probable).

The Bills are severely at a disadvantage number wise.  Three starters in the secondary are out - Whitner, Scott and McKelvin.  Rookie safety, Jairus Byrd, may have to play every snap on defense.  With Williams and McCargo possibly both out,(update: MacCargo is out) the Bills' defensive line could also be very porous, especially in the middle. update - due to the shortage of bodies, former Oklahoma safety, Nic Harris, who was converted to LB before the draft, has been practicing at his old safety position.  Harris has struggled so far in his rookie campaign.

The Dolphins meanwhile, are relatively injury free, unless you count broken spirits as an injury.  Nothing heals that injury faster than winning.  And nothing makes that injury overcome the entire mind, body and soul, like continuing to lose.  We've already been through that in 2007.  If the Dolphins go through that again, they could be broken for a LONG time.  

This is a MUST win game.

Here is how we do it:

1. Forget immediately that it is Chad Henne's first start.  You must not gameplan 'NOT TO LOSE'.  You must gameplan TO WIN.  How do teams win over and over again?  By running the football down the opponents throats, running down the clock at the same time, keeping the defense fresh and not turning the ball over.  The young, inexperienced Bills defense chock full of reserves will react slower to the Wildcat, and be attempting to throw the kitchen sink at the new Dolphins QB.  This should leave receivers wide open in the middle of the field.  This is Fasano's time to make up for a so far abysmal season.  I know Henne's favorite target are the quicker wide receivers, but I expect the tight-end to be open for business (that sounded wrong, I know).
2. Do not force the big play.  When teams force the big play, turnovers happen more often than not.  There is a formula in football that sounds very boring, bland, and obvious, but for over a hundred years, it has worked more times than not.  Run....Run....Pass.  This doesn't need to be so literal as to say we run the ball out of the 'I' twice to get to third and short then pass for the first down, although that has worked nicely for us in the past.  There can be big plays as well.  But it's the meat and potatoes stuff that should be forced, not the dessert.  Control the clock, keep control of the ball, then stun them when they're lulled into thinking you're going to run the ball, with a nice play-action bomb or a flea-flicker, for example.
3. Defensively we need to cover better.  We need more speed on the field.  I'm not going to get into chiding the coaching staff for not playing Jason Allen, as that seems like pushing the elevator button over and over again.  So I will say this - WHOMEVER is playing in the defensive backfield should be FASTER and have better BALL SKILLS in this game.  The Bills have a bent/almost broken offensive line, so Trent Edwards is going to try to get the ball out faster, and that means we can't have cornerbacks giving a ten yard cushion to the receivers.  They need to be pressed.  This has been another pain in the arse this season stemming form Pasqualoni.  We drafted two of the best (if not the two best) press corners in the draft, and yet we continue to play pu**y-ball on the outside.  There's only one way to truly stop a wide receiver in this league, and that is to stick him at the line of scrimmage.  The same goes with the tight-ends.  For some reason we are not jarring the receivers, and obviously, it's allowing them to get wide open and turned around waiting for the ball.  We need to do this.  We will not even distract T.O. if we do not try to disrupt his routes.  There's few better route runners in the NFL.

I think we all have to believe that this week we finally get some adjustments from the coaching staff.  I'm not worried about the red zone stuff as much as Sparano is obsessed by it.  If we control the clock, and get the ball back on defense, there's no reason why we can't get 15 points out of our kicker alone.  Eventually 35 to 40 running plays will result in a few big plays, including touchdowns.  Eventually Ginn's defender will slip up and Henne will find him downfield for 35+ yards, maybe a touchdown.  These things will come.  We need to not force them or focus on them to the point where we forget to block, tackle, hold on to the ball, etc.  Let's get the fundamentals down first, Dolphins.  Let's get that first all-around good effort from the team, where all three units can walk off the field at the end of the day knowing they did their job.  If we do that, we win.

Set All Phasers To Stun - or - Did Someone Forget The Chargers? -- UPDATED 4:15pm EST

Every year I have to hear about how great the Chargers are and how they'll be vying for the Super Bowl, yadda yadda.  It seems to me that playing in the worst division in the league has helped to give a boost to the Chargers reputation, because they're one of those teams that have a hit and miss offense (though they hit more than miss) and a 'miss-the-hit' defense, which misses more than it hits.  We seem to play these guys every year for some reason, but we also tend to beat them, so I'm not complaining.  Still, they do have a solid collection of star players and a head coach who's been around the block.  And we're playing in their house, and the Dolphins don't like to go that far West.

So let's take a look at how the Dolphins can come out of San Diego with a win. First, the current injury status:

San Diego:  Shawne Merriman (groin), LaDanian Tomlinson (ankle), Luis Vasquez (knee), Antwan Applewhite (Hamstring), Travis Johnson (groin), Mike Scifres (groin), Eric Weddle (illness), Marcus McNeill (illness), Kris Dielman (illness), Nick Hardwick (ankle/IR).

Miami:  Vernon Carey (knee), Greg Camarillo (back/ribs), Brian Hartline (foot/ankle), Joey Porter (hamstring).
 

GAME PLAN - OFFENSE

To keep it short and sweet, we should do almost exactly what we did on Monday Night.  The Chargers will not be able to stop our running game.   The Chargers run a 3-4, and they are not good at stopping the run, giving up 278 yards in two games.  They do have one of the best secondaries in the league and protect the intermediate routes well.  The most successful passing approach would be screens and the occasional deep throws.  But running the ball should be just as easy if not more so against the Chargers than it was against the Colts.  In fact, I would activate Ronnie Brown in your fantasy league if you've got him.  The most important thing we can do this weekend is to continue to run the ball, keep the opposing offense off the field, and to push it in for touchdowns.  If they kick a FG on 4th and short this week, I may have a stroke.

GAME PLAN - DEFENSE

Now this is where it gets tricky.  Like I said above, and like the Dolphins did on Monday night, the best defense against the Chargers is to keep their offense off the field to begin with.  They are not a quick strike 'O' like the Colts, but they have just enough weapons and a very good QB that can work enough magic to keep OUR offense off the field, which would be a disaster.  

When they ARE on the field, our secondary will be tested.  The Chargers are 31st in the league in rushing yards with 65.  SIXTY-FIVE in two games!!  I don't even want to know who's 32nd.  It looks like once again LT is injured and won't play, so Darren Sproles will be the offensive focus here, and let's be honest, he's probably more dangerous than LT is at this point anyway.  He's not effective as runner, but knowing our team's penchant for missing tackles, he could prove slippery.  Still, he will be used again and again on screen plays, so once again this brings up the question of 'to blitz or not to blitz?'  The Chargers make their money on the screen, so blitzing could backfire  a ton.  The key here, I believe is to consider Sproles a WR, and play a nickel package with an extra safety or corner covering him at all times.  You could use this extra DB on a blitz after the Chargers get comfortable with him being there to cover Sproles.

As for the more traditional receivers, Vincent Jackson is a beast, and a player I wanted desperately to trade for last year, but it's possible the Dolphins think Patrick Turner is the next Vincent Jackson.  Hopefully they've been using him this way in practices, so we'll see how they plan on covering him.  Chris Chambers does not get a lot of looks but he is always a big play threat.  Antonio Gates, obviously, is the biggest worry for us, as we haven't done well covering tight-ends so far this season, although I reiterate that Dallas Clark is not a tight-end, in my book.  So we can't assume that because covering him with a LB was a disaster that we couldn't do the same versus Gates.  His size would be a big mismatch on a safety.  Again, putting in a nickel package for most of the game would help to crowd those short routes and force Philip Rivers to look elsewhere.  And not to sound like a homer, but this strategy would be a perfect time to utilize the skill-set of Jason Allen.  Size, speed, and nose for the ball will be needed, especially if we are to start getting turnovers, something we haven't done yet.

My final point goes back to the blitz packages and QB pressure in general.  Obviously, we didn't get enough in our first two games.  Jason Taylor does not look quick at all like he did in the pre-season.  Porter is trying to speed rush too much and getting beat but I have to give him kudos for looking good against the run.  I don't remember even seeing any reserve rushers last week.  The issue all comes down to these guys beating their blockers.  They're getting stopped at the line of scrimmage, fair and simple.  It might be time to give someone else some reps.  A bullrusher like Cam Wake would be a change-up from the more finesse rushes of Taylor and Porter.  Lining up Porter wide of the line got him his first sack last week...but then they never tried it again!  Sometimes this team's inability to stay with what works can be very frustrating.  This game would also be a great time to throw in a couple of CB blitzes, especially from that nickel position.  Lastly, the Dolphins will have some help this week, as the Chargers lost Center Nick Hardwick for 8 to 10 weeks and have a couple of banged up starters.  They only carry 7 OL on the roster, and now with Hardwick gone and 3 of the 4 other starters nursing injury or illness, they will not be at full strength when we face them.

PREDICTION:      MIA  27   SD  23 

FWIW, the folks at Profootballtalk.com do weekly picks and this is what they had to say about the Dolphins/Chargers game.

A Letter To Coach Sparano -or- The Colts Are Coming

Dear Coach Sparano,

2008 was fun wasn't it?  After the heartbreak of 2007, Dolfans everywhere were truly reinvigorated by the 2008 turnaround, the media attention, and our new family members, i.e. the 'Trifecta' and its staff, and the new players.  We reveled in the excitement of the Wildcat, and we rested assured that we would compete in every game and be in it at the end of things.  We knew we had a chance to win every game, and we did that down the stretch en route to a division championship.  Once in the playoffs, we realized we weren't quite there yet, and though disappointed by the loss, we were stronger then than we had been for a long time.

This is what leads me to bring this up now.  We Dolfans support the team and its management.  We know there are a lot of challenges still on the table, and we know it will not be as simple as last year.  Yet, we EXPECT that these challenges will be met.  The Dolphins have had time to prepare, have molded a sharp roster, and have learned from past experiences.  There are no excuses, only hurdles that must be overcome one at a time.  The best teams in the league do not go into games thinking it will be a cake walk and that they can control every aspect of the game.  They go in prepared to face the hurdles.  

The Dolphins were not prepared for Atlanta.  The four turnovers and negative yardage are  not excuses.  They are hurdles that we should've been prepared to overcome.  The following list below is the fundamental game plan that we SHOULD be prepared to enact from the opening kick-off.  I am prepared for the Monday Night home opener.  The fans will be there.  The Estefans will be there.  The Williams's will be there.  And finallly, J-Lo's ass will be there.  The question is, will the Dolphins show up?  

Yours Sincerely,

Tinshaker, 

Elite Blogger Extroadinaire

Tin's Fins / tinsfins.blogspot.com

GAME PLAN 

The Colts tend to sound scary, but nine games out of ten they start off very slowly, and usually have to rely on an aggressive passing attack in the 4th quarter to overcome their opponent.  This is how you stop them on defense.

• Peyton Manning is a pre-snap genius.  The Colts utilize a system usually seen only in College Football.  They line up with plenty of time on the play-clock and THEN Manning calls the play, or audibles if you like.  90% of the time he calls an audible, it's going to be a running play.  Watch the tape.  It's not rocket science.  If you hear an audible, make adjustments to focus more on the tailback.

• Manning keeps his accuracy percentage high by throwing a lot of screens and a lot of quick slants.  We know it's coming, but if he sees we know it's coming, he will audible out of it.  The key here is to drop the OLB back into coverage after showing blitz.  Think the famous Harrison INT in the Superbowl.  We can replicate this play by not showing our hand too early.  Getting the linebacker into this lane also means he'll be in position to stop the screen pass.

• The Colts running game sucks big time.  Their O-line is average at pass-blocking, which could be why Manning calls so many quick routes, but they are terrible run-blockers.  We cannot allow the Colts to show us up here.  We have a solid run defense, but it will be a huge missed opportunity if we start missing tackles.  While Joseph Addai is the starter, keep a close eye on the rookie, Donald Brown.  He is very slippery, strong, and an excellent blocker out of the backfield.  Do not take the poor output of the Colts running game for granted.

• We are not going to get to Manning by throwing the kitchen sink at him.  He gets the ball out too fast, and stripping the manpower of the secondary out is only going to hurt us.  We must not blitz a lot in this game.   We should try to trick Manning into THINKING we will blitz, then drop back into coverage.  Our best bet for pressure on him is up the middle on bull rushes, getting hands up into passing lanes.

• Finally, we need to talk about Reggie Wayne.  This guy simply is one of probably the top 5 or 6 WRs in the league.  He is going to beat us if we don't stick to him like glue.  I would cover him with Vontae Davis, because he needs to be physically abused at the LOS, and then have the safety cheat over to his side.  This may provide more opportunity for the other receiver....I would expect rookie Austin Collie will start in Anthony Gonzalez's absence...but this rookie should be easier to handle than Wayne.  Dallas Clark should be flattened at the LOS.  He is one of, if not, the most overrated TE in the league, thanks to the fact that he actually lines up in the slot, not on the line, and thus should not be compared to 99% of the TEs in the league.

• Moving on to what we need to do on offense, I have three words for you.  RUN THE BALL.  Indianapolis has great pass-rushers in Freeney and Mathis, but their run defense is atrocious.  Their secondary coverage is pretty good though, and trying to force things down field will not be the best idea.  Last week, Ronnie Brown, your best offensive player, only carried the ball four times in the first half, ten for the game.  Had we given Brown 20 carries, and Williams 15 carries, based on their rush average we would've gotten 170 yards just from those two, without adding the yards from the QB, Polite, Ginn, Cobbs, etc.  If the Dolphins fail to run the ball at least 30 times in this upcoming game, I will start calling for heads to roll.  22 combined carries in an entire game is SHAMEFUL.

• Now keep in mind that the Colts know that their run defense is horrible.  They have activated a suspended player, Ed Johnson, a 6'2", 300lb DT to line up as a starter next to 6'3", 310lb Antonio Johnson.  Still, we cannot go into the game scared to run it down their throats.  We need to line up with Polite and Brown in the backfield and just hammer it over and over again until it breaks.  I don't care if we go 3 and out for the first 3 drives, if we don't show that we are serious about running the ball, then the play-action is for naught. 

• Now, to make one more point about the offense, because I do actually think my first point above is enough to win the game (obviously we need a passing attack as well, but if we do the above, then that will open itself up).  My final point is that Chad Pennington needs to relax.  He looks like he is trying too hard, or worse, thinking too much.  He needs to settle in, be confident, make his little dink and dunk throws, but primarily he needs to do it a lot quicker than he has been.  Freeney and Mathis are going to try to take his head off, and he can't hold on to the ball for 7 seconds in the pocket like he did when he fumbled last week.  I can forgive the INT, because the other team is playing too, but putting the ball on the ground is another thing entirely.  

• And speaking of that, Coach Sparano needs to hold Anthony Fasano accountable.  He should not be allowed to start this game.  And Ronnie Brown should be running the Wildcat, not Pat White.  If you're going to use White in the game, use him on a reverse where he pump fakes and then takes off on the ground.  Keep it simple.
  

Climbing Mount Olympus - or - Facing the Atlanta Falcons

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Ok, time to get down to the nitty-gritty, the bottom line, the heart of the matter, the quintessential truth that is the Miami Dolphins first matchup of the regular season.  

The Atlanta Falcons are good.  In fact, they're QUITE good.  They offer several mismatches for the Dolphins, and other than the season finale versus the Steelers, I can think of no tougher matchup for the Dolphins.  Don't get me wrong - I don't think the Falcons are as good of a team as the Steelers, but I do think the Dolphins have the most issues 'mano a mano' with the Falcons, and I will begin the discussion below, and offer a simplified game-plan to counteract these mismatches and hopefully produce a win.  I do believe a win vs Atlanta would be the first step to a successful season, and ultimately would end the media's obsession with believing Mike Smith was/is a better coach than Tony Sparano.  I'm doing this today, because I believe this is the discussion we all care about now, or at least should be caring about now, and I believe we'll still be talking about it after the next five days leading up to the game.

Where do I start with the Falcons?  The obvious thing would be to say how great their offense is, but since it's so obvious, let's start with the defense.  

Mismatch #1.  John Abraham vs. Jake Long.  Think of Long facing Abraham as the equivalent of him facing Joey Porter.  Abraham and Porter are neck and neck in career sacks, and last year they were neck and neck as well, with Porter edging out Abraham's 16.5 sacks with 17.5 of his own.  But there's a big difference.  Atlanta runs a 4-3 and Abraham is a sure tackler and run stopper as well.  This means no downs off for Long, who will have Abraham plus blitzes from Mike Peterson to deal with.  While there's no doubt Long can step up to the task, the task will be unrelenting.  Atlanta's biggest defensive weakness is it's depth, so the starters will likely play as much as possible.

Mismatch # 2.  Peria Jerry vs. Jake Grove.  Anyone who's been following Peria Jerry knows this rookie has been pretty much unstoppable in the pre-season.  In fact, he's looked like instead of stepping up to the NFL, he's been transplanted into a high school game level of competition.  For Miami to keep Chad Pennington upright, it's not just the ends they have to worry about.  Atlanta has been getting most of it's pressure up the middle, as Jerry has been unblockable one-on-one.  Obviously there's the ramifications of broken lanes versus the run as well.  For Miami to move the ball they'll have a very big challenge in controlling the line of scrimmage.

Mismatch # 3.  Matt Ryan vs. Miami's Secondary.  I'm not worried about applying pressure so much as I am about Ryan's ability to fire lasers.  I was not really impressed by his rookie numbers all that much, but seeing his throws, you can't help but be impressed.  He throws bullets that get there in a hurry.  The Falcons receivers can get deep in a hurry and Ryan's throws don't usually give safeties and corners time to recover even on the slightest misstep. 

Mismatch # 4.  Michael Turner vs. Miami's Linebackers.  The one thing I noticed as the biggest strength of the Falcons during the pre-season was their offensive line just completely dominating the line of scrimmage.  While I have no doubt that Langford, Ferguson or Starks could wrap up the bruising running back, the truth is it's likely they'll be blocked off and he will get to the second level more often than not.  The key here is if the combo of JT, Crowder, Ayodele and Porter can wrap up Turner and his reliable backup Norwood and not allow them to drag out an extra 3 or 4 yards. 

Mismatch # 5.  Tony Gonzalez vs. the Miami Dolphins.  In five regular season match-ups, Tony Gonzalez has been a thorn in the side of the Miami Dolphins, averaging 5.6 catches for 75.2 yards and a shave under a TD a game.  Most of us will never forget the 7 catch, 140yard, 3 TD game he burned us on a few years back.  And he hasn't really lost a step, in fact, he's gotten bigger and stronger, in my estimation, and has looked to be a very big part of the Falcons offense.  Joey Porter and JT can't cover this guy, and as they'll probably be rushing the passer anyway, I doubt Yeremiah Bell could cover him on his own either.  The problem with Gonzalez is that he plays football like he's playing basketball.  He doesn't look to get wide open, he simply looks to get in front of the defender and create a passing lane.  Once he's done that he uses his long arms to reach for the ball, keeping it safely away from any defenders reaching in.  As long as he can 'post up', he's unstoppable.

So those are the main concerns I have heading into week 1.  Yes, Roddy White is a fantastic young receiver with the rare combo of speed and size, but his success actually will hinge on some of the things already mentioned above, i.e. the O-line giving Ryan time to wind up (he has a slow motion but a rocket release as well as the running game opening up the passing game.

So, how do we get around these mismatches?  Well, I'm a strong believer in doing whatever it takes to win the game, and sometimes it's not all about winning more battles than the other guy, but winning the right ones.  So here is my game-plan for overcoming this tough week 1 opponent (please chime in with your own strategies):

The biggest battle in any football game is the battle for control.  Controlling the line of scrimmage, controlling time of possession, and controlling mistakes.  Any team that can do these three things is in pretty good shape to come out on top at the end of the game.  It's often not as apparent as in a basketball game - consider the LOS is the rebound in bball.  If a basketball team out-rebounds, controls the possession clock, and commits fewer turnovers/fouls than the other team, it's practically a guaranteed win.  So the Dolphins have to do that as goal number one in every game.  This is the foundation.  Long offensive drives, the defense getting off the field on 3rd downs, no penalties and turnovers.  That's how you get the law of averages on your side.  But I know it's easier said than done.

Now, onto the mismatches that Atlanta presents:

1.  There must be an additional blocker in the backfield. ON EVERY DOWN!  Long is good but shouldn't be left alone in this fight.  Ronnie Brown is the best stand-up blocker option here.  Polite can move people when he's running downhill, and Haynos' height can be an issue in the backfield.  Brown also presents the best check-down option and would help to keep the defenders honest as they look for the screen.

2.  This one isn't as simple.  The thing here is for Grove to try to get Jerry to bounce over to Donald Thomas, taking him out of the direct middle.  Thomas' upper body strength would then be better matched for the bull-rushing Peria.  Vernon Carey, meanwhile, should push the left end out to the tight end/perimeter, and offer help on either Jerry or the aforementioned end.  This should allow a gaping hole up the middle for Ronnie Brown to burst through.  Also effective here would be an I-formation play action.  Having Polite as reinforcement in the middle, the tailback would fake the run then ease into open space for the checkdown if no one was open downfield.

3.  No doubt this is the key that the media will hone in on as the biggest game-breaker.  but obviously it's not.  As good as Ryan is, Atlanta is not going to come out trying to throw the ball 40 times.  They are a run first team.  The key to Ryan not having a stunner of a game is actually to stop the run.  Without the play-action fake, the Falcons receivers should be matched up well by Will Allen and Sean Smith.  Allen's close coverage and Smith's rangy arms will make any quick passing to the outside relatively dangerous.  So ultimately the key to stopping Ryan is to stop Turner first, then throw the sink at Ryan in an effort to force quick throws.  I know this sounds pedestrian, but Atlanta's o-line will not allow it to be so.

4. Turner is a bruiser, and Norwood is an excellent change of pace.  Once again, the key here is fundamentals.  The linebackers have to tackle quickly and sharply.  There should be no heads-down launching at these guys.  They need to be wrapped up and that starts with good positioning.  The LBs need to 'stay at home' so to speak so as not to over-run any plays.  Remember that messy play vs Carolina in the pre-season when Deangelo Williams should've been stopped in the backfield but bounced out to score from 28 yards out?  Exactly the kind of thing we should try to avoid by not over pursuing.  I'd much rather give Turner 2 or 3 yards all day long than have him break on or two big plays due to poor tackling and bad positions.

5.  Like I said above, it's not about winning all the battles, just the right ones.  Despite Gonzalez's domination in the NFL, the truth is, it didn't really help his team win games or make any of his quarterbacks look good.  He is unstoppable in man-coverage, unless you get between him and the QB.  This goes hand in hand with the LBs staying at home like I mentioned in point # 4.  Do not leave the middle of the field unprotected in the 5 to 10 yard range from the LOS.  Gonzalez almost always runs dead center about 7 yards and posts up.  The best defense against this is to get in the passing lane.  Obviously this can't be done on every play, and ultimately, this mismatch shouldn't be considered a top-priority.  Let him get 80 yards receiving.  Without the big plays down the field and the strength of the running game minimized, it won't matter in the end.  

It's all about controlling what you can control.  Time of possession, mental errors, line of scrimmage.  By doing these things, we should be scoring points as a result.  He who scores the most wins the game.

Tin's Score Predictor:     MIA 27  ATL 31