Pulling Out The Lynchpin - or - The Bills Are Coming, The Bills Are Coming! Updated 10/2/09 @ 2pmEST

So, the Bills, our biggest AFC East rivals of the 1990s, will be sliding into homeplate....oh, scratch that...the infield should be AWOL from Landshark Stadium for Sunday's game.

This will be a heart-warming reunion between Bill Parcells and one of his favorite all-time players, Terrell Owens.  It will also be the first game of 2009 for Bills' running back, Marshawn Lynch (photo on right).

The talking heads are saying 'WATCH OUT' for Lynch as he's coming in with fresh legs.  I look at it a different way.  While the Dolphins D has been stout versus the run, and is at week 4 stride-wise, the troubled Bills' back will come in in week 1 shape and speed.  I'm not really worried about Lynch, to be honest.  He has not really been successful against the Dolphins, and I doubt he'll be given the full load in his first appearance anyway.  Not to mention his replacement, Fred Jackson, has been pretty spectacular in Lynch's absence.

The most notable thing about this game is the injury list.  It will play a major factor because our former backup QB will get his first start against the Bills backup secondary.  Don't think the Dolphins won't be playing that card.  Here's a look at the injuries with my speculation on whetehr they'll play or not:

Miami    - Joey Porter (hamstring/questionable),  Chad Pennington (shoulder/injured reserve)

Buffalo  - Donte Whitner (thumb/out), Bryan Scott (ankle/out), Leodis McKelvin (fibula/out), Paul Posluzny (forearm/out), Kyle Williams (groin/questionable), Demetrius Bell (groin/out), John McCargo, (calf/out), Shawn Nelson (shoulder/probable).

The Bills are severely at a disadvantage number wise.  Three starters in the secondary are out - Whitner, Scott and McKelvin.  Rookie safety, Jairus Byrd, may have to play every snap on defense.  With Williams and McCargo possibly both out,(update: MacCargo is out) the Bills' defensive line could also be very porous, especially in the middle. update - due to the shortage of bodies, former Oklahoma safety, Nic Harris, who was converted to LB before the draft, has been practicing at his old safety position.  Harris has struggled so far in his rookie campaign.

The Dolphins meanwhile, are relatively injury free, unless you count broken spirits as an injury.  Nothing heals that injury faster than winning.  And nothing makes that injury overcome the entire mind, body and soul, like continuing to lose.  We've already been through that in 2007.  If the Dolphins go through that again, they could be broken for a LONG time.  

This is a MUST win game.

Here is how we do it:

1. Forget immediately that it is Chad Henne's first start.  You must not gameplan 'NOT TO LOSE'.  You must gameplan TO WIN.  How do teams win over and over again?  By running the football down the opponents throats, running down the clock at the same time, keeping the defense fresh and not turning the ball over.  The young, inexperienced Bills defense chock full of reserves will react slower to the Wildcat, and be attempting to throw the kitchen sink at the new Dolphins QB.  This should leave receivers wide open in the middle of the field.  This is Fasano's time to make up for a so far abysmal season.  I know Henne's favorite target are the quicker wide receivers, but I expect the tight-end to be open for business (that sounded wrong, I know).
2. Do not force the big play.  When teams force the big play, turnovers happen more often than not.  There is a formula in football that sounds very boring, bland, and obvious, but for over a hundred years, it has worked more times than not.  Run....Run....Pass.  This doesn't need to be so literal as to say we run the ball out of the 'I' twice to get to third and short then pass for the first down, although that has worked nicely for us in the past.  There can be big plays as well.  But it's the meat and potatoes stuff that should be forced, not the dessert.  Control the clock, keep control of the ball, then stun them when they're lulled into thinking you're going to run the ball, with a nice play-action bomb or a flea-flicker, for example.
3. Defensively we need to cover better.  We need more speed on the field.  I'm not going to get into chiding the coaching staff for not playing Jason Allen, as that seems like pushing the elevator button over and over again.  So I will say this - WHOMEVER is playing in the defensive backfield should be FASTER and have better BALL SKILLS in this game.  The Bills have a bent/almost broken offensive line, so Trent Edwards is going to try to get the ball out faster, and that means we can't have cornerbacks giving a ten yard cushion to the receivers.  They need to be pressed.  This has been another pain in the arse this season stemming form Pasqualoni.  We drafted two of the best (if not the two best) press corners in the draft, and yet we continue to play pu**y-ball on the outside.  There's only one way to truly stop a wide receiver in this league, and that is to stick him at the line of scrimmage.  The same goes with the tight-ends.  For some reason we are not jarring the receivers, and obviously, it's allowing them to get wide open and turned around waiting for the ball.  We need to do this.  We will not even distract T.O. if we do not try to disrupt his routes.  There's few better route runners in the NFL.

I think we all have to believe that this week we finally get some adjustments from the coaching staff.  I'm not worried about the red zone stuff as much as Sparano is obsessed by it.  If we control the clock, and get the ball back on defense, there's no reason why we can't get 15 points out of our kicker alone.  Eventually 35 to 40 running plays will result in a few big plays, including touchdowns.  Eventually Ginn's defender will slip up and Henne will find him downfield for 35+ yards, maybe a touchdown.  These things will come.  We need to not force them or focus on them to the point where we forget to block, tackle, hold on to the ball, etc.  Let's get the fundamentals down first, Dolphins.  Let's get that first all-around good effort from the team, where all three units can walk off the field at the end of the day knowing they did their job.  If we do that, we win.