Tin Bits - Tuesday, May 11th, 2010

• Funny, when I wrote the article about Brian Cushing's drug test, I didn't think it would elicit much debate or discussion, but it did, so here's an update - Cushing tested positive for elevated levels of Human Chorionic Gonadotropin, or HCG, the same compound Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games last year for.  It is commonly used as a post-steroid fix, primarily to restore testicle-size.  I really couldn't make this stuff up - Cushing literally was going through a sex change (he does kind of look like a transexual now that I think of it)  Keep in mind, there really is no reason to take this stuff unless you are taking steroids or
  by growing breasts and reducing his male gonads. heavy into the tea-bagging scene.  Since HCG is found in seminal fluid, Adam Schefter of ESPN has suggested that Cushing could have ejaculated before taking the urine test - leading to a false positive.  This would of course imply that Cushing was jacking off in the doctors office right before the test.  Pardon the imagery of the transexual supplemental meathead freak wanking off during a medical appointment.  I could go so much further....but I won't.  Let's just say there's no way Cushing comes out of this with his head held high.  Well, maybe one of his heads....

• The Dolphin vets returned to workouts today after a couple of weeks off.  The rookies will join them next Tuesday for the first of the OTAs, after checking into the facilities on Sunday.  It's unfortunate that the OTAs and mini-camps are not open to the public, though I understand why they are not - imagine the legal implications of someone in the stands getting hit in the eye by an errant Pat White throw...

• The 'official' preseason schedule has been released:

                   Aug. 14 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7 p.m.
                   Aug. 21 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 7:30 p.m.
                   Aug. 27 vs Atlanta Falcons, 7 p.m.
                    Sept. 2 at Dallas Cowboys, 8 p.m.

• It looks like Wes Welker really won't be ready to go on opening day.  Since the Dolphins don't play the Patriots until week 4, it may not have an effect on that game, but the Pats will likely start the season without their leading receiver and anything that could slow them down versus their 1st 3 opponents, the Bengals, Jets and Bills, could be beneficial to Miami in the long-run.

• Now that the Dolphins have a #1 WR in Brandon Marshall, it's hard to remember all the names we've tried to improve our WR corps under the current regime.  But two of the more memorable guys are currently getting another shot in the NFL - Anthony Armstrong, one of the coolest, most grounded WRs out there, is currently in camp with the Redskins, while Brandon London, the braggart who couldn't catch a fly with a glue trap, is still bragging his way around the league claiming no one in the league works harder than him on his 'quest to be better than Jerry Rice' and is currently in camp with the Steelers.  You may recall London had 3 catches for 30 yards in 14 games as a Miami Dolphin and then spent more time in the VIP room than on the practice field in 2009 before being released.  Perhaps London should 'amend' his goals a little or realize that you have to get on a roster first, then get in the game, then perform when you get your chance.  Instead of looking at Jerry Rice as 'the guy you gotta beat', look to yourself and try to beat your own limitations first. 

• Dolphins' running back, Kory Sheets, confirmed to me that he is going to be competing as kick returner this off-season, as they try to replace Ted Ginn.  Personally, I think Sheets is the best option - I read somewhere a couple of weeks ago that Sheets hasn't returned kicks before - whoever wrote that didn't watch any Purdue games where he returned 38 kicks and his lone punt return was for a TD.  Ultimately the only thing that keeps Patrick Cobbs above Sheets on the depth chart is his tackling ability on special teams and possibly his blocking ability - Sheets could make the push this year to unseat Cobbs.

 

INITIAL 2010 SCHEDULE

Dolphins Schedule for 2010

Home: Browns, Steelers, Titans, Bears, Lions.

Away: Ravens, Bengals, Raiders, Packers, Vikings.

Home & Away:  Bills, Jets, Patriots. 

Ironically I will be leaving the Bay Area before that Raiders game, but if scheduling allows I will travel to attend it, despite my previous experience at that stadium.

Truth be told, this schedule looks even harder than 2009's, with the Vikings, Packers, and Ravens on the road, the much improved  Bengals on the road, and the Steelers, Titans, Jay Cutler,  etc at home.   

Keep in mind if we don't vastly improve our coverage of the opposing Tight End, we face Greg Olsen (CHI), Visanthe Shiancoe (MINN), Todd Heap (BAL), Heath Miller (PIT), Zach Miller (OAK), Bo Scaife (TEN), Jermichael Finley (GB), Brandon Pettigrew (DET) in addition to Dustin Keller, Ben Watson and Shawn Nelson twice each.  

This will make those positions of need that much needier in 2010.  LBs who can cover, a Free Safety who can  cover the field and close in a heartbeat.

Which game/games are you most interested in?

The 2009 Schedule

The Dolphins play 16 games this year against 13 different opponents. They did the same thing last year and came out on top 11 times.

Of the 13 we faced in 2008, their ending record was 91 and 117. 43% win rate.

Of the 13 we face in 2009, their ending record from 2008 was 125 and 83. 60% win rate.

Well I'll be damned, we DO have a tougher schedule...or do we? If we're going to make blanket statements that's fine, but if you've got time to look further you may find the blanket doesn't 'cover' the full truth.

For example, in 2007, the teams we faced in 2008 had an almost identical record of 92 and 116, a 44% win rate. Keep in mind this includes a NE team that went from 16-0 to 11-5 and a Baltimore team that went from 5-11 to 11-5. The Jets improved by 5 games and the Dolphins by 10.

On the other side, our future 2009 opponents put together an impressive 2007, going 117 and 91. But this 56% win rate was significantly lower than their 2008 one, and the on year difference included Jacksonville sliding by 6 games, Carolina increasing by 5 games, and so on.

Truth is, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team in the NFL that consistently wins at a high rate. Even the New England and Pittsburgh teams have their rise and fall years. Miami was 32-2 in 72/73 before going 6-8 just 3 years later after a steady decline. In general, teams fluctuate by anywhere from 2 to 5 games a season.

Now it would be impossible for all of our 2009 opponents to have such a fluctuation since they play against each other in 3 divisions. But let's just speculate that just 1/3 of them have a downward fluctuation of 3 games a piece and the rest of them post exactly the same record as they did in 2008. That would end up with a 53% win rate, or a 7% drop from the previous year.

What if every team posts the same record, 60% is an average 10-6 record. The Dolphins, at 11-5 for 2008, actually outperformed their 2009 opponents as a whole.

But let's look at another angle, the historic head-to-head records, by each team.

MIA vs. Atlanta
7 - 3

MIA vs. Indy
46 - 23

MIA vs San Diego
14 - 12

MIA vs New Orleans
6 - 3

MIA vs. NY Jets
40 - 46 - 1 tie

MIA vs Tampa Bay
4 - 4

MIA vs Carolina
3 - 0

MIA vs Buffalo
52 - 37 - 1 tie

MIA vs New England
49 - 38

MIA vs Jacksonville
3 - 1

MIA vs Tennessee
17 - 14

MIA vs Houston
O - 4

MIA vs Pittsburgh
11 - 11

You may have noticed Miami has a sizable lead in the head-to-head department. 258 wins to 190 losses and two ties. That is the equivalent of a 9 - 7 record, or 57%. This 57% is also higher than the speculated 53% win rate of our opponents from above.

Sure alot of this is speculation and statistics, but even Mr. Spock would not consider it illogical that Miami can make the playoffs against 'the toughest schedule' in the NFL.

Keep in mind that Pittsburgh has gone through typical post-Super Bowl attrition, losing several contributors from the previous season, as has Tennessee, Tampa Bay, the Jets, etc. Indianapolis isn't getting any younger and has a new coach. Jacksonville was terrible last year yet they let several of their best players go in the off-season.

We lost to Houston last year (and every time we've faced them), but our secondary is bigger and all indications are we'll have a better pass rush this year. I am not scared to face any of these teams in 2009. I think our improved team actually matches up well 'on the field' with most of them. I think that with the intangibles included we can beat any and all of them.

I believe we can sweep both the Jets and the Bills. The coldest game we will play in this year is in Buffalo on Nov. 29th - estimated 40 degrees. 3 of our last 5 games are at home, and the other two are in Jacksonville and Tennessee. 3 of our FIRST 5 games are at home. After we face the Jets in week 5, we have a bye week to recover and rest/prepare for the tough middle stretch where four of the next six are on the road. If we can win 3 of 5, then 2 of 6, then 3 of 5, we'll be 8-8. There's no reason why we can't steal a few on the road as well.

In the end it will come down to who has the best game plan that week, the best preparation, the best health, and the best motivation. I don't think talent is an issue, I believe we have talent at every position. If all the rest falls into place we should end up with a winning record and a playoff berth come January 2010.

Tin Tackles The Schedule

I realize I'm the last person to bring up the subject of the Dolphins' 2009 Schedule, but I might be the first one to actually dive in face first and get covered in it. You see, I may not know much (actually I know quite a bit, but I'm trying to come across as humble) but if there's one thing I do know, it's how to assemble things from a list of parts, It's sort of what I do for a living, and on the weekends I like to go to the local Ikea and show up the pimply punks who work there by assembling additional 'floor models' while no one's looking.

So in the next installment of Tin's Fins, I will tackle the schedule in a way that no one else will (at least not until August), by greasing up, and going in full throttle. I will assemble the Dolphins 2009 schedule one game at a time and give you a finished product at the end that you can either sit on, stack books upon, or store extra blankets in. Whatever you do with it, it will present itself as useful to you, and might even have a Nordic name, like 'Taking a loki at the schedule'.

Don't miss it.