The 2009 Schedule

The Dolphins play 16 games this year against 13 different opponents. They did the same thing last year and came out on top 11 times.

Of the 13 we faced in 2008, their ending record was 91 and 117. 43% win rate.

Of the 13 we face in 2009, their ending record from 2008 was 125 and 83. 60% win rate.

Well I'll be damned, we DO have a tougher schedule...or do we? If we're going to make blanket statements that's fine, but if you've got time to look further you may find the blanket doesn't 'cover' the full truth.

For example, in 2007, the teams we faced in 2008 had an almost identical record of 92 and 116, a 44% win rate. Keep in mind this includes a NE team that went from 16-0 to 11-5 and a Baltimore team that went from 5-11 to 11-5. The Jets improved by 5 games and the Dolphins by 10.

On the other side, our future 2009 opponents put together an impressive 2007, going 117 and 91. But this 56% win rate was significantly lower than their 2008 one, and the on year difference included Jacksonville sliding by 6 games, Carolina increasing by 5 games, and so on.

Truth is, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team in the NFL that consistently wins at a high rate. Even the New England and Pittsburgh teams have their rise and fall years. Miami was 32-2 in 72/73 before going 6-8 just 3 years later after a steady decline. In general, teams fluctuate by anywhere from 2 to 5 games a season.

Now it would be impossible for all of our 2009 opponents to have such a fluctuation since they play against each other in 3 divisions. But let's just speculate that just 1/3 of them have a downward fluctuation of 3 games a piece and the rest of them post exactly the same record as they did in 2008. That would end up with a 53% win rate, or a 7% drop from the previous year.

What if every team posts the same record, 60% is an average 10-6 record. The Dolphins, at 11-5 for 2008, actually outperformed their 2009 opponents as a whole.

But let's look at another angle, the historic head-to-head records, by each team.

MIA vs. Atlanta
7 - 3

MIA vs. Indy
46 - 23

MIA vs San Diego
14 - 12

MIA vs New Orleans
6 - 3

MIA vs. NY Jets
40 - 46 - 1 tie

MIA vs Tampa Bay
4 - 4

MIA vs Carolina
3 - 0

MIA vs Buffalo
52 - 37 - 1 tie

MIA vs New England
49 - 38

MIA vs Jacksonville
3 - 1

MIA vs Tennessee
17 - 14

MIA vs Houston
O - 4

MIA vs Pittsburgh
11 - 11

You may have noticed Miami has a sizable lead in the head-to-head department. 258 wins to 190 losses and two ties. That is the equivalent of a 9 - 7 record, or 57%. This 57% is also higher than the speculated 53% win rate of our opponents from above.

Sure alot of this is speculation and statistics, but even Mr. Spock would not consider it illogical that Miami can make the playoffs against 'the toughest schedule' in the NFL.

Keep in mind that Pittsburgh has gone through typical post-Super Bowl attrition, losing several contributors from the previous season, as has Tennessee, Tampa Bay, the Jets, etc. Indianapolis isn't getting any younger and has a new coach. Jacksonville was terrible last year yet they let several of their best players go in the off-season.

We lost to Houston last year (and every time we've faced them), but our secondary is bigger and all indications are we'll have a better pass rush this year. I am not scared to face any of these teams in 2009. I think our improved team actually matches up well 'on the field' with most of them. I think that with the intangibles included we can beat any and all of them.

I believe we can sweep both the Jets and the Bills. The coldest game we will play in this year is in Buffalo on Nov. 29th - estimated 40 degrees. 3 of our last 5 games are at home, and the other two are in Jacksonville and Tennessee. 3 of our FIRST 5 games are at home. After we face the Jets in week 5, we have a bye week to recover and rest/prepare for the tough middle stretch where four of the next six are on the road. If we can win 3 of 5, then 2 of 6, then 3 of 5, we'll be 8-8. There's no reason why we can't steal a few on the road as well.

In the end it will come down to who has the best game plan that week, the best preparation, the best health, and the best motivation. I don't think talent is an issue, I believe we have talent at every position. If all the rest falls into place we should end up with a winning record and a playoff berth come January 2010.