Well, it's official, the 2009 NFL season is over, and the Saints won it all. It was a deserved win, but I thought both the Miami vs Saints and Colts vs Miami games during the regular season were more exciting matchups than the meeting between the two there. It made me realize that we had some obvious lines drawn in performance/results in 2009. We won 80% of the time we played well, and lost 80% of the time we didn't. Nothing surprising there, but based on our 7-9 final record and the almost week to week see-sawing of performance, it's pretty obvious that Tony Sparano did not get the consistency he always preaches about to the media.
As a fan, I entered 2009 with a lot of optimism, and feeling pretty strongly about the roster. And despite a lot of short-comings, I still feel pretty good about that roster, and I feel a couple of lucky breaks could have resulted in a playoff berth and a consecutive division crown. Imagine if Ginn and Bess hadn't started out the season wearing Teflon gloves? Imagine if we had a coach and offensive coordinator who didn't completely abandon the run early in the season if we were down by a score? Imagine if we had only lost half the veteran starters to IR than we did. I think we got the short end of the stick by the refs, and the injury gods, and our coaches did their best to lose games at times. Yes, Gibril Wilson whiffed on a few tackles, but wasn't he set up to fail in the first place?
In any event, the year is over and 2010 starts now. Free Agency is less than 3 weeks away, the Combine starts in 2 weeks and in the next few weeks several players will be cut by teams as they clear off their reserves and prepare for adding fresh blood to the roster.
It is at this point I encourage all of you who are into this sort of thing to start roughing up your Mock Drafts. I suggest doing this before Free Agency and the Combine starts because it will allow you to decide what a team's priorities are and if they cover one in free agency you'll be able to easily switch to the next priority or if a player flops in the Combine, etc.
I'm currently up to pick no. 59 and have taken a break for the day. I must say, you don't realize how much talent there is in a draft until you start mocking it out. It also helps you to see what sort of trades Miami would have to do to get the players it wants.
I won't reveal my Mock until a couple of days before the Combine just in case someone snaps an ACL in the meantime, so expect it on the 22nd, but I will reveal that both CJ Spiller and Rolando McClain were off the board before the 12th pick.
You should at least share who you believe the Fins will pick. If not, you're just one big tease!
ReplyDelete<span>Yes, Gibril Wilson whiffed on a few tackles, but wasn't he set up to fail in the first place?</span>
ReplyDelete<span></span>
<span>Ummm, if you play defense, shouldn't you be able to tackle? I think the only guy who got away with not being able to tackle on defense was Deon Sanders...</span>
Wilson had some missed tackles but tackling wasn't his main problem. Everyone seems locked in on the one where Shockey took him for a ride. Wilson's problem was in coverage. He was late to help over the top way too often. He did have 93 tackles and at times he played very well against the run and making tackles against short and medium range routes. The deep ball is where he really struggled and that always gets magnified.
ReplyDeleteThis draft is considered very deep so that's a good thing being that we need a few positions.
The statement wasn't meant to be taken so literally. The reality is Gibril
ReplyDeletewas out of position on a lot of missed tackles because he was not playing
deep enough. When a safety is lined up too short to protect against the
deep ball, I have to believe that is the result of scheme as opposed to the
player. When he was tackling running backs he was very good at tackling,
better than any of our linebackers. The problem was further downfield when
he was out of position (which is what causes the QB to go deep in the first
place) and his not changing his technique between tackling a running back in
the box and tackling a WR that's in open field. You have to stay upright so
the offensive player doesn't juke/spin/jump past you.
As bad as Wilson was in pass defense, he was terrific in run defense. Maybe
they should move him to linebacker....
I was just laughing at that statement and had to say something. I will say that some responsibility lies on the Trifecta as they signed him to that ridiculous contact.
ReplyDeleteEven if you take out all the "highlight" missed tackles, he missed too many for his position. But I agree that his coverage skills are his weakest point. I still think Bell is way better at everything than Wilson and he should remain our SS. I would be shocked if we kept Wilson and if we didn't draft a true FS this year. Can Clemons play FS or is he more of a SS?
ReplyDeleteBell seems to get a free pass. He missed his share of tackles and was also out of position too often early on. But he played much better down the stretch and got a few picks and his stock went up. The secondary as a whole struggled on many levels. Will Allen went down and we had two rookie corners starting.
ReplyDeleteCan we trade some players for some picks? Do we have any players some teams can find interesting to trade for?
ReplyDeleteI think this is the first blog I've seen without any Jet Trolls...
ReplyDeleteClemons is a FS, but he may be better as a corner, IMO.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure what direction the trifecta will go in. But I think we have a better understanding of what they will be thinking before the actual draft. For the past 2 years they tried to put themselves into a position of having options in all the weak areas of the team. So as before I think we will see where they think the team is weak with the signing of FAs in those areas, and adding to that weakness with draft picks.
ReplyDeleteSo off the top of my head I look for them to draft a guy they feel is the best choice for a need. That would include either side of the ball, even though we need help badly on the defensive side down the middle of the field. If they feel that Dez B. is the best option for that pick then I see them going his way. Even though that would not make me happy
You see I'm from the old school I guess, I feel you win games by beating the other team up, and to do that you need big strong fast players on the offensive and defensive lines and that includes the lbs. So once again I'd like to see those areas addressed first. I'm just not sure it will happen that way.
If that happens you can say goodbye to J.Allen.Clemons has the smaller contract and with an uncapped year coming up Allen could be cut.
ReplyDeleteWell of course. We could trade several players, but it's a matter of if the
ReplyDeleteother teams are willing to give up good picks for them.
<span>Oakland!! Ginn and Porter for a 2nd! </span>
ReplyDeleteWho do you see us trading?
Do we have value players? By that I mean, Porter, Channing, Torbor, Ayodele, Gibril, Fassano, Ginn, who else??
What can we get out of them or some of them? who do you think we might get rid off?
This is the draft to get more picks, do we have them?
Well, I would cut Nate Jones long before I cut Jason Allen, especially if
ReplyDeleteAllen takes a paycut.
This is a Draft strong in .... what positions??
ReplyDeleteIs weak in .... what positions??
We can't trade Porter, Wilson or Fasano. Porter and Wilson's contracts are
ReplyDeletetoo big and Fasano is not under contract.
We probably could trade Ayodele and a 7th for a 5th and Torbor and a 7th for
a 6th. We could trade Ginn and a 6th for a 4th.
Jones is going to be a FA and I think their were gonna let him go anyway we can find an upgrade at the nickel in the draft.I'm not sure Allen would take a paycut he still has talent but I guess this is a wait and see thing until the offseason.
ReplyDelete<span>That BAD!!! You´re being to hard with those players. I would think we could get a 5th for Ayodele, a 4th for Torbor and a 3rd for Ginn at least!!</span>
ReplyDeleteOr is it because of this draft that nobody would give anything?
How would you get a higher pick for the backup than the starter?
ReplyDeletea 3rd for Ginn?
Clearly your tap water has turned into Tequila....
Tins,
ReplyDeleteBottom line--Wilson is not a legitimate FS, he's a SS. But since Bell is a better SS, the truth is that his signing really makes no sense.
strong just about everywhere except for QB and ILB.
ReplyDeleteLOL!!!!
ReplyDeleteFor the record--Scott Fujita will be a Dolphin in three weeks.
ReplyDeleteI doubt it, but I approve of such a move.
ReplyDeleteThis draft is even weaker than when Alex Smith was drafted No. 1 & that was a sad QB class.
ReplyDeleteExactly, but what's done is done...now would be the best time to trade
ReplyDeleteBell. He will need to be replaced in a year anyway.
I'm okay with trading Bell. He's a better SS than Wilson but he did not deserve to make the Pro-Bowl this season. IMO--It's incredible that he managed to stay healthy for two whole seasons.
ReplyDeleteYou doubt it??? Parcell LOVES this guy.
ReplyDeleteI see only Ginn bringing back draft picks in a trade. Ayodele and Torbor aren't good enough for a team to give up picks. They are what they are, borderline starters and backups ILBs. Torbor can also play OLB in 4-3 because he has some speed, but I still don't see a team trading for him.
ReplyDeleteRemember we got a Ayodele and Fasano for a 4th. We traded borderline starters and backups in Alleman and Ndukwe for a 6th. Unless we package Ayodele and/or Torbor, I doubt we would get anything for them. If we could that would be great. I'm not holding my breath though.
Ginn is still 24 years old with 4.3 speed. He still has upside. I don't think he's hit the ceiling yet. I still think there is a productive WR in there. He's just not a #1, never was and he was a bad pick at #9 for us in 07. He wasn't the BPA and it wasn't like we were a speedy WR and return man away from making the playoffs, obviously! LOL
Clemons looks too stiff for me to be a corner. I think he'd be a better SS playing close to the LOS and covering TEs and RBs than covering ground over the top deep. He has 4.35 speed but he doesn't play that fast. He does hit and seems to be involved in a lot of contact. He has good size at almost 6-1 210. So maybe he's Bell's eventual replacement.
ReplyDeleteI could see teams like the Giants and Eagles being interested in Bell. We can't trade him to a competitive AFC team.
Remember too that the trifecta isn't in the business of trading their best players even if they're marginal at certain positions for unknowns (draft picks). You have to have a plan on how and with whom you're going to replace them with. Free agency will tell us a lot about how we'll approach the draft and making trades.
ReplyDeleteBeing that we pick #12 I see us being active to move up or down depending on the players on the board. We're in range to trade up for a special player. We have 10 drafts picks although 6 of them are 6th and 7th rounds with three each.
We have a chance to fill some holes and upgrade through free agency and add two or three immediate impact players in the top 75 of the draft.
This team is strong in the trenches. Not dominant but above average. We have a good young QB prospect in Henne. We have talent at RB. We have some solid young WRs but nobody is dominant. TE is average at best. We have two top young corners in Davis and Smith. Just to start as rookies and be competitive was impressive. We have some OLB talent with Wake as the guy with the biggest upside. I don't think any of us would be surprised if he had 15-16 sacks in 2010.
On defense we need some help at NT, ILB and S. On offense we need help at WR and TE. If we can come close to addressing all of those needs and upgrading at some positions, we'll be in the playoff hunt with two weeks to go left in the season instead of fading at the end and hoping for miracles to back in. If we hit on a special player or two in FA and/or the draft, maybe we're a 12-4 team and playing for the #1 or #2 seed. It can happen.
Yes, Will Allen went down, but our corner play did not suffer one bit for it. Saying they're rookies is one thing, pointing out where our corner play suffered is a whole other thing...truth is they are rookies, and will get better..and did a GREAT job this year. Will Allen was NEVER the shutdown corner that it seemed most dolphin fans/writers thought he would be/was. Both of our rookie CBs ranked in the top 33 in the league, and that's pretty damn good when the NFL starts 64 safeties each week. Neither was "shut-down" caliber, but Will Allen sure wasn't ever that either...unless you ask Omar.
ReplyDeleteScheme. Scheme. and not having a Free Safety on the field. Those were our secondaries' issues, and I gotta believe they've fixed the first two things, and will fix the last one before FA/Draft is up. My sources say that Wilson is the 15th overall rated safety in the league while Bell is only 33rd. Before you argue just know this: my sources watched more football then you :)
Which reminds me...does Will Allen have any trade value?
ReplyDeleteso do the Saints
ReplyDeleteWill Allen is our best corner at the moment. He lacks size against the bigger WRs but he always stays close to his man. He's been an NFL starter for 8 or 9 years. It's hard to lose that experience.
ReplyDeleteI'm not gonna say experience isn't important knight, but you overvalue it (good thing Deangelo Hall didn't get the nod over the less experienced Chris Johnson eh?). Allen played 329 snaps this season which is plenty of snaps for him to be graded out at PFF... he graded out 1 single slot better than vontae (26th for Allen 27th for Davis), and Sean Smith graded at 33 (out of 64 starters).
ReplyDeleteHe's no better then Davis. The rookie. This year anyway.
Also, his performance slipped from 9th in 07 to 13 in 08 to 27th in 09 so he's going the wrong direction. He's still got skills, but he's a trade commodity. You need to let talent win out over experience sometime and that's exactly what has already started happening this season.
He's not bad, just no better then the rookies we just drafted and looks like serious trade bait to me.
Tinshaker
ReplyDeleteMany disenchanted bloggers at SS with new format
Hope that increases your blog traffic and subsequent Advertisement Revenue
U deserve It
Keep Up The Great Work
Sincerely
Home Super Bowl 2010
Perhaps moving W. Allen to FS and leaving Davis and Smith as the CB's might work.
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts?
Tin,
You do deserve the extra traffic...great site!
Bam Bam, I think he's undersized for FS. I'd also be surprised if he's physical enough. He does seem to have the cover skills for it though...
ReplyDeleteJahndoh,
ReplyDeleteJust a thought. You are probably right about the size part which might not make him enough of a hetter. However, we are sorely lacking a FS with cover skills.
I would also like to move Carey to the inside or trade him. He really disappoints me with his lack of speed and flat-footed engagement of pass rushers.
Sorry Bam, I can't agree with the VC thing. SI named him there all pro RT this year. If the Probowl had voting for RT and LT separately there's a very good chance he woulda been in there. A couple other services (that pay attention to RT play) also named him all-pro or honorable mention. He's not ever gonna pass block as well as Joe Thomas or Jake Long, but then again, he's rarely going to be facing the oppositions best pass rusher so hopefully it will work out.
ReplyDeleteI personally am a big VC fan. He's been under a ton of scrutiny since he was drafted, and all he does every year is produce and I've not once heard him making stupid comments to the media or to opponents through the media like a JP or CC does. He's a model citizen in general.
YB may not be a true pro bowl SS but I think he makes our secondary better (if that's possible). Not sure what his trade value would be but if he's dealt, we have NOTHING from a safety perspective and that will not help our CBs at all.
ReplyDeleteI think Will Allen makes a great nickle back. Plus, he can help teach Davis and Smith.
ReplyDeleteCan I get an A-MEN?!?!
ReplyDeleteWhat makes you say this? I would be a fan of it but is it pure speculation or what?
ReplyDeleteI'd be cool with Clemons and YB at saftey next year. DAvis and Smith on the corners with Will Allen as the nickle and Jason Allen as the dime (hoping he takes a pay cut). I also think we should draft or sign a FA saftey as well. I would think Nolan would have the right scheme for the type of players we have. Either you have to change the players or the scheme and it appears we have changed the scheme.
ReplyDeleteSomeone please let me know how I can change my tap to tequila!
ReplyDeleteI don't think the scheme will change much. Maybe more blitzing and some different coverages because of that, but we're still playing a 3-4 base. I happen to agree with Tin that Nolan may use more 3-4 than 4 man lines that we have been using on passing downs. Unless that's the way we get our best pass rush. I think we'll still see some of that but Nolan will probably add more blitzes from ILBs and DBs.
ReplyDeleteJahndoh, I don't think Will Allen was healthy this year. He was bothered by a knee. He played very well last year. We'll see where he is off the knee surgery. I doubt there is much trade value coming off of that injury.
ReplyDelete<span>
ReplyDelete<p>Well said, Jahndoh. I've always thought Carey under-achieved but he is a class person and a solid RT. He may not be elite but he is probably a top 10 RT.
</p><p>
</p><p>Our OL is finally a talented group. They're not elite yet but they show flashes of it. We have to get the inside guys settled. Smiley and Grove with injuries and Thomas hitting a wall as a young player. I think he'll be a much better player this year. We found that we have solid depth with Berger and Garner. If Gardener can get to the next level as a backup OT this year, we have good talent and depth.
</p></span>
maybe Knight. If that turns out to be the case please remind me to give you some props. I personally think his reputation is still as a starter in the league, he's not gonna get more trade value by aging another year and playing the nickel. I'm obv speculating on this, but I don't see Sparano going backwards with these two rookies, I think he's already got em penciled as the starters.
ReplyDeleteI agree knight. I'm excited about our Oline this year for the first time since Lamar Smith in 2000. Even then I knew they were overachievers. This group is good already and set up to get much better with some continuity.
ReplyDeleteJahndoh,
ReplyDeleteSI named him All-Pro??? That's kind of a surprise.
I'll say this for Vernon--you can count on him to play on Sundays. It took him a year to get acclimated to the pros from the U but after that he has only missed 2 starts in 5 seasons. That's impressive. Since his rookie year the only time I noticed a significant let down in play was the first half of the 2008 season when he was in a contract year. I don't know what was going on with him BUT Sparano, a former OL coach, still saw enough to sign to a pretty large contract. I realize he's not a mauler & sometimes he looks a little sluggish in pass protection but for the most part the guy plays the position pretty well.
When you draft a RT & he's your starter for 5 seasons, you made a good pick. In fact Carey was one of the only draft pick that Wannstadt didn't screw up on.
I heard he likes to mix it up, even 5-2 to keep offenses guessing. Also has his OLBs in coverage more than the ILBs. That may depend on who we have.
ReplyDeleteI would say Will Allen is our most experienced CB but not our best. He has never been a shut down type of corner and I think Davis and Smith can both be that type of player.
ReplyDeleteI think the expectation of the OL in 2010 will be very high. And I think they can live up to it if they stay healthy and play a full season together.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Jahndoh. VC isn't all pro or a stud but he's a sold starter. We can't expect pro bowl players all across the line. I can also see some value from him if he moves inside to guard in the future. I also think he played hurt for most of 2009 so that may have affected his play somewhat.
ReplyDeleteWill Allen is not nearly big enough or a good enough tackler to be a safety. If Smith improves his tackling I'd like to see him play some FS. However, he played well at CB for a rookie & I doubt it will happen.
ReplyDeleteEven if Will Allen is healthy, when the 2010 season begins I'm pretty sure that Vontae will be our best CB. I believe it is just a matter of time before he becomes an elite player.
Agreed but staying healthy is the key.
ReplyDeleteJason Allen is the best FS on the team.
ReplyDeleteYeah, Peter King does their all pro awards. His awards are also his official votes for the AP all pro team, though I don't think the AP team differentiates between LT and RT, so he wouldn't have made that team.
ReplyDeletehttp://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/01/04/awards/index.html
Tin,
ReplyDeleteWhere do you come up with this stuff? Not that I think you're wrong (though I don't think we'd need to give up a lower pick to get a 4th for Ginn, that's one of those players that either has an owner/gm who loves him and his speed or not), its just that these are such specific draft choices and trades and theirs hardly a draft value chart that everyone goes by anymore.
Is this all just off the top of your head or are you comparing these to other similar players and what they fetched in trade?
Well a 5-2 is a 3-4 with the OLBs on the edges of the 3 DL and 2 ILBs. I think any scheme has to be modified to the talent you have. After free agency and the draft we'll have a few new defenders on the team that we don't have now.
ReplyDeleteThey can be but they're still a little green.
ReplyDeleteAgreed on the rookies starting. But having Will healthy and playing nickel could really help.
ReplyDeleteIt's pure conjecture...I was asked what we could get in trade and that is my
ReplyDeletehighest appraisal. No GM is going to give up a high pick for Ginn. Not
without something else to sweeten the pot. And for the record, I disagree
about the trade value chart. All contracts/trades/drafts etc are tied to
what the previous guy got. Right now in Dallas there's a certain WR who's
going to get filthy rich because of what they gave the other receiver on the
team a year ago. You think Andre Goodman was liked by Denver's front office
to the tune of $5 mil a year? No, the reason he got the $5 mill is because
that was the going rate. Now tell me, what is the going rate for a 4th year
receiver of Ginn's production?
As long as it's not puke Jet green I'm cool with that. Corners can develop quickly so I expect improvement in their 2nd year.
ReplyDeleteCommenting on the poll that has Dan Williams being the way to go at NT for 2010 other than Jason Ferguson, confirms my belief about fans and the draft. Many fans hear a name at a need position, jump on it and run with it.
ReplyDeleteSo a lot of fans want Dan Williams, a rookie who has never played NT to start for us regardless of whether or not he can play the position? Okay!
Where are we drafting him? At #12? I've seen him ranked between the 20s and 30s depending on where you go. Unless he blows everyone away at the combine and pro days, he'd be a reach at #12.
Rob Rang has him going to the Dolphins at #12.
ReplyDeleteYeah and he's wrong with his entire reason for taking Williams at #12. Can he give me an example of Parcells reaching for a player on the DL that fits his scheme?
ReplyDeleteRemember too that everyone sets up their mock drafts based on a team needs and most teams who draft well don't draft that way. So mock drafts mean nothing to me. I prefer top 100, 200 and 300 lists.
Ok, Williams is listed as the 3rd best DT in the draft....Suh, McCoy,
ReplyDeleteWilliams, Odrick, Price.
I think all 5 will go in the 1st round, although I'd put Price above Odrick
and maybe slip Odrick into the 2nd.
Knight ; <span>Remember too that everyone sets up their mock drafts based on a team needs and most teams who draft well don't draft that way. </span>
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure I agree with you on this point. I'm not a draft expert, but I have owned a number of businesses. When a business has a need or a area that has a problem, it must be fixed. I don't see the NFL being alot different than that. The Dolphins have many needs, but I doubt they would draft another LT just because he is rated to be selected at the # 12 spot and he is considered the best pick for that slot.
You've heard the saying the squeaky wheel gets the grease, it's no different in the NFL. Weaknesses "all of them" get addressed. If not then the wheels fall off.
If you pass on a player who has a 7.5 grade and draft a 6.0 player because of need you just made your football team worse.
ReplyDeleteWhen you have a number of needs like you said we have, you don't have to worry about doubling up on a position like LT. We could take an OLB, ILB, DB, an explosive offensive player like Spiller etc.
You can draft the NT position in other rounds, there are 7 of them and we have 10 total. BPA is always the best way to go.
And run defense was not our biggest problem last year so I'm not sure why NT is the top priority on everyone's list. Pass defense and pass offense were our biggest weaknesses.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. But is the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th ranked DT that far below Williams in talent and upside? That also plays into how to approach the draft. If you feel there are some NT prospects that will be around in the mid-rounds that aren't too far behind in potential, you don't take Williams at #12. To me, the 1st round has to be BPA because of the money and long-term ramifications. Look no further than Ted Ginn vs. Patrick Willis.
ReplyDeletewe have nine picks unless I missed something. For what it's worth, I agree
ReplyDeletewith you about BPA, but it's not so cut and dry. You wouldn't draft another
LT because then you'd end up with three high priced Tackles that you
couldn't possibly afford and would have no reasonable way of trading. If
the BPA was a punter or a center, you probably wouldn't pick them either.
There should be some weight attributed to position of need. You wouldn't
wait til the 4th round if your biggest need was a QB. You wouldn't likely
skip over the best LT in the draft if that was your biggest need and there
was a couple of other players who were considered better players but at
other positions, say WR, and CB. Jake Long wasn't the best player in the
draft in 2008 was he? He was the best player in a position of need.
Anyway, I know every fan has their own theory, but mine is always to be
open-minded and consider all options and consequences before drafting a
player. I believe in both BPA *and* Position of Need. I guess I'm
Bi-Draftual....
I thought top priority was ILB?
ReplyDeleteNT is a top priority because it's looking less and less likely that Ferguson
returns.
ILB is a priority because we need to upgrade.
FS is a priority because we need to help out our corners.
WR is a priority because we need consistency and YAC. We need someone we
can depend on and someone who can allows us to open up the offense with
Henne.
And finally, OLB is a priority because we need to replace Porter, and JT,
and we don't have a 'Roth'-type player on the team and we need one.
LOL @ Bi-Draftual
ReplyDeletePunter? LOL
I already addressed the LT thing. Everyone uses that as an argument against BPA and I shoot it down every time. LOL
Who was better than Jake Long in the 2008 draft? There is also the fact that Jake Long plays a cornerstone position that most franchises target in the top 10 whenever they get the chance.
I keep thinking we have three 7ths. My bad.
ReplyDeleteWhen I do my mock drafts I don't move a player a huge distance based on a
ReplyDeleteteam's needs, because another player of a lower grade will be available with
their next pick, but too many people get caught up in the draft position of
a player in a round.
IMO, there's no difference between any 1st round picks, because the teams
only get one pick each before trades. So a player being drafted at 20th is
no different than the one who got picked 10th, IMO, they get different
contracts, but they are of the same value to their respective teams.
If the Dolphins want to pick Williams, I don't have a problem with them
taking him 12th. Obviously if they know he won't be picked until 20th, then
they should attempt to trade down, but if they end up missing out on
McClain, Spiller, Williams and Bryant, by trading down thinking one of them
will fall to them, then they'll have failed miserably. I would be very
upset if someone like Jared Odrick or Golden Tate was our first round pick
because we had to pick BPA because we thought Williams would drop and
someone picked him at 15.
However, if we can get a McClain, Spiller, Bryant, and pick up a NT later
then great. But in my current state of mind (pre-combine/pro-days), if
McClain, Spiller, Bryant, and Berry are gone, then Dan Williams is a
legitimate #12 pick.
Well I'm happy with the Long pick, but he wasn't expected to be the top pick
ReplyDeleteearly on. I think Chris Long and Matt Ryan were considered better players
by many. Ultimately it was a close decision - unlike this year when Suh is
clearly the best player (though there's loads of buzz that the Rams are
going to pass on him to get a crappy QB).
With all those needs I can see why we reach for Williams. LOL
ReplyDeleteI see more fans calling for a NT than ILB, though I think McClain is the best prospect for us.
Hard to tell - Williams flashed in games and looked really good in Senior
ReplyDeleteBowl practices and game. More so than any other DT in the 3 all-star
games. I can say the drop off from Williams to Cody is huge. Troup shows
some promise, but he seems to be losing too much weight, almost like he's
trying to move to DE. Ultimately I think Brian Price and Dan Williams are
the only two 1st round picks at DT, so it's a matter of who you think is
better and if they are the BPAs.
I don' t think the Ginn argument supports your case at all - he wasn't the
best player available and he wasn't at a position of need (at least not a
top priority - we already had a high-priced undersized WR/Kick Returner),
perhaps he was the Pat White of 2007, chosen purely as a luxury choice.
McClain is the best combo of BPA and PON if he's on the board at #12, but I
ReplyDeletedon't see him getting past Cleveland and Denver.
I don't think Jared Odrick or Golden Tate makes much sense. Odrick would be a DE in our defense and I think we have enough of those. How many smallish WRs do we need? Is Tate going to be all that in the NFL? I have my doubts.
ReplyDeleteThis falls in line with what you said about BPA and I agree. If you're set at LT and RT you wouldn't draft the OT, you're free to take another position. The difference is saying we need a NT so draft the best big bodied DT with our 1st pick regardless and that's what I see going on with Williams from fans.
Hmm...Antonio Pierce has been released....
ReplyDeleteI saw Jake Long listed as a projected #1 overall in the 2008 draft in 2007. Most people had both Longs, Dorsey, McFadden and Ryan in the top 5. Pick one! There was a lot of debate on whether Ryan was much better than the rest of the QB class including Flacco, and Henne and Kolb being the other two that seem to have bright futures. Brian Brohm already busted.
ReplyDeleteI know, McClain is already rising on the draft board. He's a pure LB who could play in any scheme. 3-4 ILB and 4-3 SOLB.
ReplyDeleteUnless he comes cheap I'd pass. Pierce didn't finish the season due to a neck injury. He's not the same player he once was. Giants fans were down on him and I heard callers on sports radio saying the same things about him Phins fans complain about with Ayodele and Crowder. Bad angles and poor in coverage.
ReplyDeleteIf the Rams pass on Suh they'll be picking top 5 for the next 2-3 years. Good for them.
ReplyDeleteWe had a definite need for speed at WR in 2007. He was drafted purely for his speed because we lacked overall speed on offense and special teams. That's the classic reach!
ReplyDeleteWho was the high-priced undersized WR/KR we already had in 2007?
ReplyDeleteChris Chambers
ReplyDeleteUndersized and a KR? Chambers was only 5-11 but 210 and he didn't return kicks. Welker did and we lost him as a RFA that year.
ReplyDeleteTins,
ReplyDeleteI would hardly call Chris Chambers "undersized." Inconistent? Absolutely. But if Chambers is undersized wtf is Ted Ginn??? He's 5'11" & although they list him at 180 (now that's funny), I'd be surprised if he's even 175.
Knight,
ReplyDeleteIs Tins even talking about the same player? I don't recall Chambers returning kicks either...
IMO--If you don't need the "best player available" on the board when it's time to draft then it's truly the perfect time to trade since you shouldn't have a problem finding a team that wants him.
ReplyDeleteTins,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on our list of top priorities.
Are you sure Chambers didn't return? I'll be honest I wasn't very sober for
ReplyDeletemost of his Miami years....
I didn't think he was that big, maybe he just looked tiny standing next to
Vincent Jackson...
In any event, I still don't think Ginn really fit a huge need then when
compared to the OL, QB, etc.
Come to think of it, that entire draft was awful for the Dolphins.....Ginn,
Beck, Satele, Booker, Soliai, Mauia, Mormino, Kelvin Smith, Fields, and
Abraham Wright.
When the 7th round punter turns out to be the best pick out of your 10 draft
picks, you know you're doing something wrong...
good point
ReplyDelete*
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Well Soliai is still there. LOL
ReplyDeleteSeriously to fail on your 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks in one draft is abysmal. That's why I say you can't reach. It kills you for years.
I'm a big fan of working the draft, trading up and down to target the prospects on your board. Bill Walsh and Jimmy Johnson were great at it.
ReplyDeleteKnight,
ReplyDeleteI watched Golden Tate play a LOT this season & the more I saw him play the better he seemed to get. Another player like that is C.J. Spiller. They're both great college players & they both possess incredible playmaking ability. Forget Clausen, Tate was a one-man offense for ND. Weis was even lining Tate up as a RB at times & he made plays from there as well.
Is Tate a first round pick like Spiller? Probably not since his measurables won't be ideal for a WR but as a second round pick, assuming he's still available, I think he's worth the risk. No one can see the future & be able to determine how a college player will perform at the next level but we need playmakers like Spiller & Tate. I've watched them both play extensively & I'm sold.
OK, I guess I'm wrong. The last time I saw Chambers he looked like a
ReplyDeletemidget. Maybe it was my TV...
Now I'm with you. I was taking you as locking in on the best rated player in the # 12 slot. When you add in the best player in a need position that changes things and I agree with you on that.
ReplyDeleteI would imagine there are many things a team considers before they make a selection. Such as does the player fit what the team is trying to do. For instance you wouldn't want a wishbone QB running a pass happy team.
WHP I'm with you on this one Spiller and Tate were the play makers on their respective teams. A name that get lost is another guy from Clemson. Ford the WR, he's not an early pick. But he could be what the Dolphins wanted in Ginn. I think it was Tin who said that years draft was mess and is that proving out to be true.
ReplyDeleteI think that we will keep Allen for another year. He still can mentor Davis and Smith. Keeping Allen also will allow us pick matchups the way we want against WR sets. All 3 CBs can play inside or outside depending on where certain WRs set up. An example is when Moss lines up in the slot 95% of the time goes long. We can line up Davis/Smith on him and still have good coverage on the outside. Just a thought.
ReplyDeleteWHP, I was talking about Tate in the 1st round.
ReplyDeleteI think that great front offices use a combination of BPA and PON when deciding who to pick. I would not be surprised if the FO did not do a complete mock draft for every team. Then they can get an idea where a player may fall to and either trade up or down to target that player. If they feel player Y (NT) should be there at 20 and player Z (LB) should be there at 50 they can move down and pick up an extra pick and still get Y at 20 and pick Z at 43 or trade back again. Of course player Y and Z could be gone. I am sure that they analize each teams needs to ensure teams drafting 13-19 don't need NT. As an example think back to 07 draft (i just shivvered) when we passed on Quinn. (I am not a Quinn fan) Everyone knew he was going to fall to to at least 20 because no other team needed a QB.
ReplyDeleteWell it actually goes a bit further than that. I believe the NFL itself
ReplyDeletereleases a spreadsheet to the GMs with some of that info on it I remember
hearing something about that last year and thinking it almost blew my mind.
Of course, with team's having a 'Capologist' on every staff, it would not
surprise me if they had a team of mock drafters as well.
My bad Kolb was in 07.
ReplyDelete