The New Guys

Upon completion of the 2010 NFL Draft, I feel like Miami did well but probably could've done better.  Ultimately we won't know how good a draft it was until a year or two have passed, but to me, none of the players really scream 'Pro-Bowler' to me.  But with that said, there should be improvement to the team overall, and thus I guess you would have to consider it a successful draft at this stage.  

The addition of the undrafted free agents shows that Miami did cover all their needs between Free Agency, Trade, Draft and subsequent free agent signings.  As we sit on April 25th, Miami can head straight to camp with 'all the bases covered'.

JARED ODRICK


KOA MISI


JOHN JERRY

AJ EDDS



NOLAN CARROLL



RESHAD JONES



CHRIS MCCOY 
 

AUSTIN SPITLER 

 

UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS:

CB/KR - A.J. WALLACE, PENN STATE - 6'1", 195 LBS 
CB - ROSS WEAVER, MICHIGAN STATE - 6'1", 208 LBS

SS - JOHNATHAN AMAYA, NEVADA - 6'0", 203  LBS

NT - TRAVIS IVEY, MARYLAND - 6'3", 341 LBS
DT - VINCE OGHOBASSE, DUKE - 6'5", 305 LBS
WR - ROBERTO WALLACE, SD STATE - 6'4", 223 LBS
WR - MARLON MOORE, FRESNO STATE - 6'0", 190 LBS
OT - ANDY LEAVINE, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - 6'5", 305 LBS

2010 Draft Prospect - Mike Iupati

Well guys, April Fools' is over so this is not a joke.  I actually had a dream last night (which is odd because I haven't been aware of many of my dreams for a couple of years) that I was at the Draft Party at Sun Life Stadium Joe Robbie Stadium, and the Dolphins used their 12th overall pick to select Mike Iupati, the big Samoan guard who played at Idaho.  And since my dreams tend to be somewhat prophetic (or at least they used to before I stopped dreaming regularly), I'm beginning to see this being a real possibility.

There's no question over who is the best Guard in the 2010 draft - that's Iupati.  The question in recent months has been whether or not he could play Tackle in the NFL.  As of today, I would say no, but I would also say that about several players who are already playing Tackle in the NFL.  I think Iupati could turn into a Tackle after some serious coaching and of course experience.  

You see the ting with Iupati is, his technique isn't very polished, and he relies too much on his size and strength.  This won't hold up on its own in the NFL where everyone is faster, stronger and bigger.  But what Iupati does have going for him is that he knows he should win each battle and he knows to take things one play at a time (this is so important as an OL) and he is fierce in his attack.  He has very good feet, athleticism, and uses his hands well, but he doesn't necessarily tie it all together at the moment.

This is why I never thought of him as a top 15 pick before, but I could see it happening simply because he has all the tools, has the character, the size, the intangibles, etc.  it's all there waiting for a coaching staff to come along and make a pro-bowler.  The Dolphins coached against him in the Senior Bowl, where their South defensive line manhandled the North's O-line for most of the game - but reports through out the week of practice were very flattering towards Iupati who was probably the only North linesman who stood out and the Dolphins spent a lot of extra time with him after his Pro Day and hosted him in Davie.

With Justin Smiley on the trading block, Iupati could come in as the impending starter at Left Guard.  I don't think anyone would complain about getting a potential long-term starter on the O-line with our first round draft pick.

Workout Warriors?

Just to pass some time, here's a head to head comparison of two WRs working out today, OSU's Dez Bryant (considered a top 10 pick - nfldraftscout compares him to Roy Williams) and USF's Carlton Mitchell (graded as 3rd round - nfldraftscout compares him to Brandon Marshall):

               Height      Weight     40 time   Vertical   Broad    Shuttle   3-Cone   Bench

Bryant         6014       224 lbs       4.57          38"       11'01"     4.48        7.21        DNL 
                         

Mitchell       6030       215 lbs       4.40          36"       10'02"     4.55        6.96       16 reps

And now, some recent quotes from their position coaches:

[Fast forward to 2010, and I call up Coach Brewer. Like always he says, "Timmy Martin, what's going on?" I said, "Coach Brewer, how good is this kid Dez Bryant?" I couldn't believe what I heard come out of Coach Brewer's mouth.

Coach Brewer said, "Timmy, he's better than Moss. I never thought I would see someone that could track the ball better than Randy when it's in the air, but this kid can. He's fearless on the football field and doesn't mind one bit to roam the middle of the field. Dez is a very smart football player and loves to watch film and learn about the game. He has a very high football IQ and picks up the game very easy."]

Gunter Brewer was Randy Moss' WR coach at Marshall and Dez Bryant's WR coach at OSU.

  

["Carlton can flat fly," USF wide receivers coach Phil McGeoghan stated recently. "He has all the tools, all the ability. He is very diligent in his route running and his assignments. He is getting better, I see him improving everyday. He comes out here, works early and stays late. Carlton Mitchell is just a very talented guy who is big, tall, athletic, and has all the gifts you want in a receiver."]

It should be noted that Dez Bryant was a good team-mate and an excellent football player at OSU but in the last 6 or 7 months has sown he clearly does not have the best common sense.  First he hangs out with Deion Sanders, lies to the NCAA, picks a notorious agent, skips the combine, and OSUs pro day, then a day before he runs at his private workout, he boasts about how he's going to run a 4.3, then he forgets to bring his cleats to his workout, and subsequently runs a 4.57.  I have to say, this guy is so lucky he's blessed physically, because if he wasn't, no one would be giving him all these second chances.

Carlton Mitchell on the other hand does not have the hands of Bryant, but he's a much better option when it comes to hard work, ethics, and all out speed.  In my mind, Bryant is what he is, he is maxed out (albeit at a high level) and Mitchell is someone who is only going to get better.  The two WRs couldn't have come from a more different scheme - Bryant in the spread at OSU where he was the featured receiver, and Mitchell in the run-first scheme at USF where receivers were asked to block more than anything and there were 6 WRs sharing reps.

An argument could be made for the Dolphins trying to draft both of them, just one, or none at all.  I'll bet they're both on the board come draft day.

2010 Draft Prospect - Kam Chancellor, FS

Some of you may recall I liked Kam Chancellor last year - I had him as a possible Miami target at FS behind Missouri's William Moore.

Chancellor is Taylor Mays size - and if Miami were to draft him he'd be a real wrecking ball in the backfield - he's known for hitting hard - but he's also known for his coverage skills.  For a 6'3", 228 lb fella, he can run well and doesn't get beat in man-to-man situations very often.  In fact, I'd go as far to say that he could cover any TE one-on-one and it would take an above-average WR to shake him.

Perhaps the best thing I could say about Chancellor is that he won several awards in his college career - but not the kind you get for on-field play - the kind you get for showing hard work, determination and leadership off-the-field and in the off-season program.

He started out as a cornerback, grew into a hard-hitting strong safety, then matured into a patient and intelligent free safety.  As a likely 4th or even 5th round pick, it would be hard to say no if he's on the board.

Projecting The Draft

Nothing makes a man more proud of himself than to be able to say, "I told you so!" no matter what the subject matter.  "I told you she had 3 nipples!"  "I told you Lady Gaga was going to win a Grammy!"  "I told you I was going to get fired for peeing in the office coffee pot!".  Of course, since we're all football fans who partake in an online community/discussion, we often hear the "I told you he would be a good player" or "I told you he'd be a bust" in relation to the NFL draft, and Free Agency.  

Well I'm no different, really, I don't tend to brag about it, but there is an inner sense of pride when I look back through the archives and see the success rate of players in the NFL that I projected to be successful out of college last year.  I definitely missed on some players - but sometimes you realize that despite the draft being a crapshoot - there are many indicators of success versus failure that can be picked up on that can minimize any chances of missing on a player.  Several of the players I profiled last year got injured in or before training camp and never got to compete - William Moore and Tyrone McKenzie come to mind - but several of them made big splashes - Sean Smith started as a rookie, as did Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, BJ Raji, and Terrance Knighton (note how I project him to play nose and say Ron Brace and Sammie Lee Hill won't be able to handle it - eat your heart out Nostradamus!).

And don't get me started on the Free Agency side of things.  I insinuated that Karlos Dansby would be a Dolphin last year and that the Dolphins should go after Miles Austin before he made a name for himself.

And of course, I turned this blog into a Connor Barwin media machine for several weeks only to have the Dolphins pick Pat White over Barwin, and thus a year later have needs at OLB and TE both of which could've been filled by Barwin.  The Texans chose Barwin to play 4-3 end behind Mario Williams despite the fact he was projected as a starting 3-4 OLB.  Despite that he had a pretty good rookie campaign as a nickel rusher.  I then wrote on more than one occasion that I would put the Barwin-slight behind me, but let's be honest, I never have to this day.  

And there will probably be moments like this in 2010 as well.  In a way, it's probably a good thing we only have 2 picks in the first 2 rounds.  Without that luxury pick, there will be less chance to have that 'what we could have had' moment.

One thing you'll notice in my 3 round Mock Draft (link at top of page), is that there's a ton of solid football players I didn't even get to in those first three rounds, and there would've been a lot after 4 rounds, and loads after 5 rounds as well.  Our three six round picks could easily end up being used on 3 players who make the 53-man roster, whereas in the past, these picks were generally thought to be 'project' players who'd either show enough to make it onto the practice squad, or end up was waiver-wire fodder.

So, now, with free agency sort of past the 1st and 2nd wave, and most of the auditions out of the way, I think now is as good a time as any to start putting together draft boards for the Dolphins.  I'm keeping mine basic with 3 potential players for each pick for a total of 30 players.  I will post it as a page link at the top of the page and will occasionally edit it in case any surprises come along.

I encourage you all to do your own, if not for every pick, at least the first 4 picks, and share them below.

2010 Draft Prospect - Brandon Graham, OLB

Whenever you hear scouts talk about Michigan DE cum NFL OLB, Brandon Graham, they all use the words 'LaMarr Woodley'. Woodley is the only player in NFL history to record four consecutive multi-sack playoff games. He also has 25 sacks in the last two seasons.  If Graham is considered to be a carbon copy of Woodley, then why wouldn't we draft him into our 3-4 defense?

Really there are only two reasons against it:

• Some say his size is an issue because he's barely 6'1" in cleats.  Well, Mike Nolan had success with a much smaller sized Elvis Dumervil last year, and Coach Sparano has shown that he's more in tune with people who make plays as opposed to strict size requirements.  If Parcells and Ireland ease up on their historic preferences in favor of getting a proven pass-rusher, then Graham could be on the radar (note: I think he is, because the Dolphins have not mentioned him once).
• The second reason is that it would take the 12th overall pick to get Graham.  Pretty much every board I've seen has him graded in the 15th to 25th overall range so he wouldn't be likely to be on the board by the 43rd pick (our 2nd rounder).  Some people may think he'd be a reach at 12.  LaMarr Woodley was the 46th overall pick in 2007.  But his production has surely been that of a top 15 pick.  Larry English, another squatty College DE turned NFL OLB, was chosen 16th overall last year by the 3-4 running Chargers.

As a 3 year starter in Michigan blue, Graham won the team MVP award twice (junior & senior year) and was elected as team captain as a Senior.  He contributed 55.5 TFLs and 30 sacks.

2010 Draft - Small School Sleeper - Terrell Hudgins, WR

Terrell Hudgins just may be the best WR you've never seen play. Graded as a 7th round/Undrafted Free Agent in many rankings throughout the internet, the 6'2", 230 lb Elon Phoenix from Rocky Mount, North Carolina has never let the lack of a spotlight prevent him from playing at an insanely high level. Hudgins broke just about every career receiving record in the FCS in 2009, some of which were originally recorded by Jerry Rice in 1984, twenty-five years earlier.

During his career, Hudgins was voted onto 20 All-America Teams, set 10 NCAA records, and was voted to the Southern Conference All-Decade Team. He finished second in voting for the Walter Payton Award in 2009 and finished with 395 receptions, 5,250 receiving yards, 51 touchdowns, 28 games with 100+ receiving yards and four 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

So why have you never seen him play? Because he went to Elon. Now, every year there are several FCS players who make it to the NFL, and several who get showcased in the all-star games - especially the East-West Shrine game. But none from Elon.

This year, a WR from The Citadel, Andre Roberts, was invited to the Senior Bowl and got rave reviews throughout the week before having a not-so-memorable game. He then posted 4 top-ten performances at the NFL Combine. He was invited, but Hudgins wasn't.

Andre Roberts - 5'11", 192lbs - 2009 numbers: 77 catches, 792 yards, 8 TDs

Terrell Hudgins - 6'2", 230lbs - 2009 numbers: 123 catches, 1633 yards, 16 TDs

Hudgins and Elon made the FCS playoffs and were robbed of a win (Hudgins scored a game-winning TD but the refs said he didn't come down inbounds) versus the defending champions Richmond in the 1st round. The Citadel didn't make the playoffs. Yet Roberts was invited to an all-star bowl, and Hudgins wasn't.

Now Hudgins does face an uphill battle due to lack of tape like the big schools provide NFL teams and a consistent level of talented opposition, but he has had some competition here and there including Wake Forest's Brandon Ghee (currently rated as 2nd round) and South Florida's Mike Jenkins (2008 - 1st round - 2009 Pro Bowler). Hudgins burned Ghee for 13 catches, 113 yards and a touchdown. He got 14 catches for 92 yards and a TD against the 2007 USF secondary - one of the best foursome ever to play college ball (Jenkins, Trae Williams, Nate Allen, Carlton Williams).

2010 Draft Prospect - TE, Dorin Dickerson

Before we get too far into this thing, I want to make one thing perfectly clear. I want the Dolphins to draft Dorin Dickerson as a wide receiver.

Dickerson is currently rated as a 3rd round pick, and if you were to find a receiver with his size (6'2", 226 lbs), his strength (24 reps), his speed (4.40), his production (10 TDs in 2009), his route running, his leaping ability, his blocking ability, and his playing in a pro-style offense, and that WR would be a 1st round pick.

Instead, he's stuck in a Tight End box, and thus, you look at his size and think, well, he's not big enough to warrant a high pick. This is exactly why the Dolphins should draft him in the 2nd round (They can't wait until the 3rd - he may be gone by then) but he's a sure thing with their 2nd pick.

And what do the Dolphins need in a WR? Someone big, fast, good hands, red zone threat, runs good routes, blocks well, and doesn't costs a 1st round pick. That is Dorin Dickerson.

The reason he's so good at running routes is because he used to be a wide receiver. The reason he's so strong and blocks people well is because he switched from WR to line-backer. The reason he's good in the red zone is because he played for Pittsburgh, a pro-style offense that featured some outstanding running backs and wide receivers, so he knew he'd have to stand-out in the red because the other guys would get most of the touches between the 20s.

David Martin was drafted as a WR and switched to TE, and the Dolphins tried the switch with Ernest Wilford as well. So why wouldn't they try a TE who can line up off the line, a la Dallas Clark, or even as a split end?

Check out this article on Dickerson's Pro Day - it talks about his 'position flexibility'. (Click on Quote)

"“I think he’s a tight end, but that’s going to be one of those things where the need of the team and the fit will be critical,” said Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt. “Somebody that uses two tight ends and moves the guy, kind of like we used him, that’s what Dorin can do. And I know there are a lot of teams out there excited about what he can do. I think he just played consistent (for us). When his number was called, he responded.”"

According to one source, the Dolphins were not present at the Pitt pro-day. Based on experience, this generally means the Dolphins may be bringing in a Pitt player for a private workout - they generally don't attend the Pro Days of players they've already invited in (you may recall they waited to work-out receivers privately with Chad Henne last year, and will likely do the same this year).

2010 Draft Prospect - WR Eric Decker

 Eric Decker making the catch that Ted Ginn Jr couldn't.

Eric Decker isn't Dez Bryant or Arrelious Benn, or Golden Tate.  But he is the best WR in the draft for the Dolphins.  That is my argument and here is my defense of that argument.

First of all, he played for Minnesota, a team not known for having a great QB or high-powered offense that tends to inflate a receiver's stats a la Bryant and Tate, or Crabtree the year before.  Does anyone here have any idea who the Minnesota QB is?  Yet in just under 3 1/2 years, Decker caught 227 passes for 3,119 yards and 24 TDs. 

Secondly, he played through every stinger and sprained ankle he had in his career.  Before missing the second half of the 2009 season with a Lisfranc injury, he had started every game, despite being banged up at times.

Thirdly, he is coming off a Lisfranc injury (something the Dolphins staff know all about), has not been able to do any all-star games or Combine workouts, and will likely be unable to workout before the Draft.   There is plenty of good tape on Decker, but sometimes out of sight means out of mind, and his current draft stock sees him as a steal in the 3rd or 4th round.  This allows the Dolphins to take NT and FS in the 1st two rounds.

Fourthly, The Dolphins currently have a slew of young untested receivers that need reps and bringing in a player who wouldn't jump onto the practice field straight away affords them time to show something to the coaches.  Much like Brian Hartline last year had to miss mini-cap due to school, Decker's missing mini-camp due to injury shouldn't prevent his competing for a starting role when the time comes.  It didn't affect Hartline, and Decker is a bigger stronger player, so it shouldn't affect him either.

Fifthly, Decker was drafted twice by the MLB, and chose to stay in football.  He didn't come out and say this, but he did sort of imply that baseball wasn't tough enough.  He likes getting hit.  See the video below - I don't know how he held onto the ball on the big hit, but I watched that game live, and he came back in on the next drive as if nothing had happened.  He is the Anti-Ginn.

And finally, he's 6'3", 217 lbs and is a good route runner and excellent run-blocker.  He was averaging 8.6 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown a game before suffering the season-ending injury. For the ladies, he's GQ-good looking, and likes to take his shirt off and pole-dance (there is a photo available online).

Quotes about Decker:

"His tape is his resume. I'm sure people are going to want to get a feel for where he's at health-wise. And typically they like to get some of these measurables as well," said Minnesota Vikings head coach Brad Childress.

"A-plus character kid. Has all the tools to be a very productive player in this league," said ex-Gopher wide receiver and Minnesota Vikings VP of Player Personnel Rick Spielman.

"A guy that's going to work every day to be the best. A guy that's going to run good routes, a guy that's gonna get open, a guy that's gonna block, a guy that's gonna high-point the football on the field," said Decker. "That's going to be a leader in the locker room, help out his community off the field."

Decker is eager to get better. Last year he worked out with Arizona Cardinals star Larry Fitzgerald Jr., hoping to soak up pass-catching tips that he can to apply to his own game.~ Eric Nelson, WCCO Minneapolis.

2010 Draft - Small School Sleeper - Akwasa Owusu-Ansah

As we continue our peek into some small school notables, I'll be honest and say despite this next guy being on my radar for about a year now, everytime I go to write his name I have to go double check that I got it right.  For the purpose of this discussion, I'm going to call him AOA.

AOA is on the scouts radar somewhat but he was unable to play in the East-West Shrine game due to shoulder surgery, which he managed to overcome at the combine.  Maybe it's just me but this guy looks and moves a lot like Malcolm Jenkins, the top cornerback of 2009's draft, and now Super Bowl ring holder.

At 6'0", 207lbs, he is big enough to play safety, and indeed has played both positions in college.   Look at the way he plays center field when lined up at FS. He posted a 4.47 in the Combine 40 yard dash, and looking at the video, he doesn't look super fast, but this guy's balance is out of this world.  His returns are reminiscent of Joshua Cribbs, but even more amazing.

He would provide the Dolphins the youth and depth they seek in the secondary as well as a legitimate return specialist.  I have seen him listed everywhere from late 2nd round to early 5th.

I've Got A Brand New Combine Harvester, or, Men In Shorts

It's that time of year again when over-sized men strip off into their underwear and run around in front of a bunch of fully-clothed, older men with cameras, notebooks, stop watches, and tape measures.  Before they get to all the action though, they spend 15 minutes getting to know each other in what could only be compared to Speed Dating.

It's the 2010 NFL Scouting Combine.  It runs from today through Tuesday, and its purpose is to invite every football player who is expected to be drafted down to Indianapolis for a real prodding by NFL coaches and General Managers.  And while it's true that nothing that happens over the next 7 days changes anything on tape or defines how good a football player is, it does have significant effects on how a team views a player, and anyone who thinks it doesn't has never gone through a job interview process.

Yes, references and work history are what qualify you for the job, but if the hiring manager just doesn't like you, he's not going to hire you, and that's why they hold the interviews in the first place, otherwise they'd just look at your resume, then call you up and give you the job.

Below is the official Invite List (organized by player ID number), as well as the official schedule.  As you can see, the actual drills/workouts don't start until Saturday but the lead up until then is full of interviews, medical exams, the glorious Wonderlic and the all important measurements.  The numbers obtained here will be considered the OFFICIAL numbers, as opposed to those shown in the All-Star games or on College documents.  

The game tape on these players is important but it's not the entire picture.  Pat White looked great on game tape.  So did Vernon Gholston.  So did Michael Johnson.  So did a lot of players.  But the psychological aspect of the player can only be seen up close and personally, which is why the Combine interviews and testing are so paramount to a player cementing his status.  And performing well in the drills will usually cement a top 10 player's status as well as move a late round player into a higher round.  A defensive back who was ranked as a 7th Rd/FA could move up to the late 6th/early 7th with a good showing here.   
I have obtained a Wonderlic test but am having some issues integrating it into the site so that one can take it live and get results.  I hope to have this figured out by tomorrow.  

So, who do you think will really blow up the combine?  Personally, I'm expecting big things from CJ Spiller as well as little Trindon Holliday.

A Boy Named Suh

When you think of the last few years in the draft, there have been a lot of notable players, and a lot of players who make-up the Pro-bowl rosters and All-pro teams, but heading into the draft, few of them have been considered must have or Elite talent. I haven't followed the draft or college football for the matter for more than a decade and in that time I couldn't think of more than 2 or 3 players that had that kind of label, not just someone who is considered the best in the class by many scouts/talking heads, but has the consensus label and could be a starter on all 32 teams immediately. Ndamukong Suh is one of those. 

Every year there's buzz about a dozen or so players being 'elite' or being top of the class. Well, there's usually someone who can argue against each player, but this year, Suh is keeping the pundits quiet. You see, the game tape is just too ridiculously good to argue against. The quality of his character is too good to argue against. His football smarts are too good to argue against. And his strength, determination, and coachability are also ticks in his pro column. The guy simply is the best Defensive Lineman to come along in a long time. I remember seeing him play in 2008 and immediately thinking to myself, 'this guy could be in the NFL right now'. Well, he only got better and stronger since then. And he showed he could play anywhere on the line in a 4-3, 3-4, 5-2, 3-3-5, whatever.

So, it seems only logical that we should trade up for him, because St Louis will undoubtedly either draft him into mediocrity, or pass on him to take a QB, thus making the biggest GM mistake ever. It's up to Miami to come to the rescue of my fellow Portlander (my adopted 'home-town' where I will soon return to), and add him to the Dolphins rotation. A Dolphins line that had Starks, Suh, Langford, Merling, and McDaniel would certainly make waves, and help to ease the liability at ILB.

We all have an idea of what we want with the 12th pick, although a large portion, if not a majority of Miami fans, wants to trade DOWN rather than pick at 12. But what if we were picking 1st as we did in 2008? Would you trade down to pick McClain or Bryant or Dan Williams? OR would you say to yourself, 'There's no way I'd pass on Suh'?

If you feel that Suh is the 'best in show', the elite monster that would tear up the NFL, a la Reggie White (the player he's most often compared to), then surely you would forget about McClain and Bryant and trade UP to get him.

The following is the math done for you, so you can put on your GM hats, and decide if you want to make the deal. Keep in mind, with the 1st pick overall, you can take any player you want, and you can sign him before the draft, so on draft day you can sleep in while all the other teams jostle for parking.

 SCENARIOS:

1. Miami trades their 12th overall, with their 2011 1st round pick and Tedd Ginn and a mid-level player such as Paul Soliai.
2. Miami trades their 12th overall, their 2nd round pick, Tedd Ginn, Paul Soliai, Jason Allen and Lex Hilliard.
3. Miami trades the 12th overall, their 2011 3rd and 4th round picks and Ronnie Brown.
4. Miami trades their 2011 1st round pick, their 2010 2nd round pick, a 2010 6th round pick, Will Allen, and Pat White.
5. St Louis is desperate to trade out and gives us the 1st pick for our 1st pick and 4th round picks and a 2011 conditional.
6. St Louis drafts a QB, leaving Detroit to either take Suh or trade with us for our 12th overall, and couple of O-linemen, and our 4th round pick.
7. Stephen Ross buys the Rams, and gets them to trade picks with Miami for cash.

Linebackers - Does Size Matter?

Joey Porter will be leaving on March 5th.  Akin Ayodele may be following him, according to the Sun-Sentinel.  Channing Crowder's radio show hosting of Porter's rant has led to speculation, and Cameron Wake, according to just about everyone except for game tape, cannot play at an NFL level.  JD Folsom is a project, Reggie Torbor is overpaid, Charlie Anderson is overpaid and over-flagged, and Quentin Moses is still a project.  Jason Taylor probably has one more year left in the tank - actually if I were a betting man I'd say it's more likely two-thirds of a year.  Erik Walden hasn't been able to handle more than special teams, and Brian Johnston couldn't even make it on the Chiefs roster.

Eleven football players with two things in common:  1.  They all play linebacker for the Dolphins, and 2. Their futures are uncertain in one way or another.

I expect by training camp we will have 5 or 6 ILBs and 7 or 8 OLBs competing for a spot.  The Dolphins's LB make-up could be very different come opening week of the 2010 season.

Now we know the top ILB in free agency is Karlos Dansby.  The top OLB is...well it's actually going to be Joey Porter, and we know we won't go there.  The truth is the youngest, most talented OLB available at this point would be Scott Fujita of the New Orleans Saints.  But he would be asked to move inside in the Dolphins defense, and at 31 years old, his conversion could be a real risk.  

No, free agency is not where we'll find any quality OLBs, at least not unless Matt Roth decides to come home.  So we look to the Draft.  And running the Draft this year will be the Trifecta and their underlings, Dan Henning, and new Defensive Coordinator, Mike Nolan.

Nolan is a branch of the Al Groh tree.  Al Groh is a branch of the Bill Parcells tree.  You may think that makes Nolan and Parcells share some core beliefs such as scheme and what they look for in personnel.  Not entirely the case.  Nolan actually started out running a 4-3, and only switched to a 3-4 in the past decade.  Nolan has been a part of drafting some significant names in the NFL, but has also worked with what he had on the roster before he showed up, whereas Parcells has more or less preferred to bring in his own players.  

So how does the replacing, bolstering, upgrading and shoring up of the linebacking corp go with Nolan in the mix?  I say with some basis in fact but even more so in speculation that Parcells wants someone with Jason Pierre Paul's measurables.  6'6", 265 lbs, 4.6 forty, and all the athleticism in the world.  Someone he can work with and mold into a future force.  Nolan, on the other hand, is more likely to take a proven player he thinks can start straight away.

With the Baltimore Ravens, Nolan drafted Peter Boulware, 6'4", 255 lbs.  With the Jets he drafted John Abraham, 6'4" 254 lbs.  You would think he would stick to that mold of player as he carried on in his career, but after he inherited Andre Carter, 6'4" 260lbs, on the 49ers squad, he suddenly started moving towards shorter, squattier guys (Brandon Moore, Parys Harrelson), before implementing the 3-4 in Denver last year and moving Elvis Dumervil, 6'0", 255lbs into a stand-up pass-rushing role.   What made him change his understanding of what a pass-rusher should look like?  

Parcells, I believe, has not changed from his ideal 6'4" and above pass-rusher.  And he hasn't changed from his belief that he can take the guy with the best measurables and make him into the player he wants him to be.  

Sparano will just want someone who brings something to the table in the locker room, in the meeting room, and who hustles on the field.  He'd prefer someone who isn't limited by his measurables, but is probably more in tune to the intangibles.

So I ask you, what linebackers do you see the Dolphins going after this off-season?  Here is my guess:

OUTSIDE

Parcells:     Jason Pierre-Paul

Sparano:    George Selvie

Nolan:        Brandon Graham

Henning:    Convert Pat White to LB - "Pat can do it all!"

INSIDE

Parcells:       Rolando McClain

Sparano:      Joe Pawelek

Nolan:          Patrick Angerer

Henning:      "There was this kid one time, played for the Eagles in '72, I liked that kid.  Maybe he has a kid. That's who we'll get.  Next question."

How Dare You Mock Me, Sir!!

Well, it's official, the 2009 NFL season is over, and the Saints won it all.  It was a deserved win, but I thought both the Miami vs Saints and Colts vs Miami games during the regular season were more exciting matchups than the meeting between the two there.  It made me realize that we had some obvious lines drawn in performance/results in 2009.  We won 80% of the time we played well, and lost 80% of the time we didn't.  Nothing surprising there, but based on our 7-9 final record and the almost week to week see-sawing of performance, it's pretty obvious that Tony Sparano did not get the consistency he always preaches about to the media.

As a fan, I entered 2009 with a lot of optimism, and feeling pretty strongly about the roster.  And despite a lot of short-comings, I still feel pretty good about that roster, and I feel a couple of lucky breaks could have resulted in a playoff berth and a consecutive division crown.  Imagine if Ginn and Bess hadn't started out the season wearing Teflon gloves?  Imagine if we had a coach and offensive coordinator who didn't completely abandon the run early in the season if we were down by a score?  Imagine if we had only lost half the veteran starters to IR than we did.  I think we got the short end of the stick by the refs, and the injury gods, and our coaches did their best to lose games at times.  Yes, Gibril Wilson whiffed on a few tackles, but wasn't he set up to fail in the first place?

In any event, the year is over and 2010 starts now.  Free Agency is less than 3 weeks away, the Combine starts in 2 weeks and in the next few weeks several players will be cut by teams as they clear off their reserves and prepare for adding fresh blood to the roster.

It is at this point I encourage all of you who are into this sort of thing to start roughing up your Mock Drafts.  I suggest doing this before Free Agency and the Combine starts because it will allow you to decide what a team's priorities are and if they cover one in free agency you'll be able to easily switch to the next priority or if a player flops in the Combine, etc.

I'm currently up to pick no. 59 and have taken a break for the day.  I must say, you don't realize how much talent there is in a draft until you start mocking it out.  It also helps you to see what sort of trades Miami would have to do to get the players it wants. 

I won't reveal my Mock until a couple of days before the Combine just in case someone snaps an ACL in the meantime, so expect it on the 22nd, but I will reveal that both CJ Spiller and Rolando McClain were off the board before the 12th pick.

One Down...89 to go.

Of the 90 or so football players attending the Senior Bowl week, it's likely that the Dolphins are paying attention to all of them, even if they don't play at a position of dire need.  You know they like to 'turn over rocks'.  Well the Senior Bowl week allows them to sit back and have the rocks roll downhill.  They get to see all sides without doing the heavy lifting.

But even at this early juncture it seems that 'heaviness' itself has actually caused the Dolphins, specifically Head Coach, Tony Sparano, to pass judgment on one of the players he is coaching on the South team.  And it's none other than Terrence Cody, the 370 pound Nose Tackle who helped push Alabama to the National Championship a few weeks ago.

 
Sparano was asked if Cody would need to lose weight to make it in the NFL.

"I play in a division where there's some pretty heavy people across the ball," Sparano said. "I would say that it's not for me to say what some of the other teams might consider too heavy or not too heavy and I think that when a team gets him into their system they'll make that evaluation one way or the other.

"I would say that he would have to lose a few for me."

I think it's fair to say that since Sparano made these comments to the media, he's using his usual down-playing verbage, and actually means that Cody would have to lose a LOT of weight rather than a few pounds.  The actual physique of Cody is another issue.  Jason Ferguson is not chiseled by any means, but he definitely is more muscle than fat.  Cody seems to have little musculature at all in his upper body.  

And if they wanted Paul Soliai to come down to 330-ish, then they'd probably want Cody to lose 30 or 40 lbs, which obviously isn't going to happen.  The guy knew he was going to get undressed in front of hundreds of people and get poked and prodded, and he actually turned up weighing more than people expected him to.

There are enough red flags and implications here to safely say that Cody would not be a safe draft pick, especially in the 1st round, and especially for the Dolphins.

Your thoughts?

2010 Draft – Tinshaker’s Top 10 by Position Projections - DEFENSIVE END

Well, despite being out sick this week, and being under deluge of winter storms, I actually have here the final Top Ten list posted before the deadline I set for myself which was the end of the day on Friday.

That's because, you see, tomorrow is the first All-Star game, and of the 109 prospects I've listed in the past two weeks, a whopping 13 of them will be playing in the East-West Shrine game on the 23rd. Of the remaining 96, a whopping 30 are confirmed to play in the Senior Bowl on the 30th.  A surprise attendee of the Senior Bowl is Myron Rolle, the 2009 graduate of Florida State who chose to accept a Rhodes scholarship and put off the Draft for a year.

So enjoy the final list, keeping in mind that in a 3-4 defense there is always some crossover between DE, DT, and OLB and it's too early to guarantee where any of these players will line up in the NFL.

2010 Draft – Tinshaker’s Top 10 by Position Projections - OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

It wouldn't surprise me if the Dolphins did not make an attempt at picking up a big name OLB this offseason.  They got another camp body in Brian Johnston, and they have a stable of young players in Wake, Walden, Moses, and Anderson.  They may choose to keep both Porter and Taylor as well.  Another camp body or two and we'd have a full menu.  But it all depends on what Coach Sparano and Mike Nolan come up with as their initial proposal to a defensive scheme.  This would give Jeff Ireland a sense of direction in which players to keep and/or pursue.

In any event, the Coaches are likely to be tempted by what they see at the Senior Bowl next week as well.  I also feel that the addition of a dynamic inside linebacker and a few tweaks to blitz schemes would greatly decrease the need to get another top-price pass-rusher this year.

While I welcome the addition of any of the players on the list below, I really do feel that we already have a future Pro-Bowl talent at pass rusher in Cameron Wake.  In a way I suppose I'm saying I'd rather draft a run-stopper than a pass-rusher in this category, though it would be nice to have someone who can do both.

2010 Draft – Tinshaker’s Top 10 by Position Projections - OFFENSIVE LINE

I'll be the first to admit that offensive line is something that I pay attention to, but never really enjoy thinking about.  I'm not into high-priced free agents, or top draft picks.  I just want some 300-plus pound men to stand in a line and block somebody.  I don't care if they make $10 mil a year or $400k.  Just block your guy.  But for the sake of a Top Ten listing, here goes: