Projecting The Draft

Nothing makes a man more proud of himself than to be able to say, "I told you so!" no matter what the subject matter.  "I told you she had 3 nipples!"  "I told you Lady Gaga was going to win a Grammy!"  "I told you I was going to get fired for peeing in the office coffee pot!".  Of course, since we're all football fans who partake in an online community/discussion, we often hear the "I told you he would be a good player" or "I told you he'd be a bust" in relation to the NFL draft, and Free Agency.  

Well I'm no different, really, I don't tend to brag about it, but there is an inner sense of pride when I look back through the archives and see the success rate of players in the NFL that I projected to be successful out of college last year.  I definitely missed on some players - but sometimes you realize that despite the draft being a crapshoot - there are many indicators of success versus failure that can be picked up on that can minimize any chances of missing on a player.  Several of the players I profiled last year got injured in or before training camp and never got to compete - William Moore and Tyrone McKenzie come to mind - but several of them made big splashes - Sean Smith started as a rookie, as did Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, BJ Raji, and Terrance Knighton (note how I project him to play nose and say Ron Brace and Sammie Lee Hill won't be able to handle it - eat your heart out Nostradamus!).

And don't get me started on the Free Agency side of things.  I insinuated that Karlos Dansby would be a Dolphin last year and that the Dolphins should go after Miles Austin before he made a name for himself.

And of course, I turned this blog into a Connor Barwin media machine for several weeks only to have the Dolphins pick Pat White over Barwin, and thus a year later have needs at OLB and TE both of which could've been filled by Barwin.  The Texans chose Barwin to play 4-3 end behind Mario Williams despite the fact he was projected as a starting 3-4 OLB.  Despite that he had a pretty good rookie campaign as a nickel rusher.  I then wrote on more than one occasion that I would put the Barwin-slight behind me, but let's be honest, I never have to this day.  

And there will probably be moments like this in 2010 as well.  In a way, it's probably a good thing we only have 2 picks in the first 2 rounds.  Without that luxury pick, there will be less chance to have that 'what we could have had' moment.

One thing you'll notice in my 3 round Mock Draft (link at top of page), is that there's a ton of solid football players I didn't even get to in those first three rounds, and there would've been a lot after 4 rounds, and loads after 5 rounds as well.  Our three six round picks could easily end up being used on 3 players who make the 53-man roster, whereas in the past, these picks were generally thought to be 'project' players who'd either show enough to make it onto the practice squad, or end up was waiver-wire fodder.

So, now, with free agency sort of past the 1st and 2nd wave, and most of the auditions out of the way, I think now is as good a time as any to start putting together draft boards for the Dolphins.  I'm keeping mine basic with 3 potential players for each pick for a total of 30 players.  I will post it as a page link at the top of the page and will occasionally edit it in case any surprises come along.

I encourage you all to do your own, if not for every pick, at least the first 4 picks, and share them below.