Omar Kelly is Alive!! (again)

Just a heads up, I have checked in with Sun-Sentinel blog guru, Omar Kelly, and he is in fact alive and not a victim of a home invasion gone awry as I had suspected, and is having a mini summer break before the action heats up in Dolphins-land.

He wanted me to tell everyone that he's teaching his son to ride a bike and that he'll be posting a new article tomorrow (Thursday) in prep for the weekend mini-camp.

Dolphins Media-Friendly OTA Today + Contest #2 Deadline

Some observations of my own, and then we'll open it for comments.

First of all, a quick reminder that the entry dead-line for Contest # 2 is at 1pm Pacific/4pm Eastern TODAY!! All e-mailed entries must be in my inbox by that time. Thanks to those who have taken a stab at the contest, we already have more entrants for this mini-contest than we did for the first one a few weeks back. The next one, Contest # 3, will be much tougher than this one as it will have more questions involving predictions as we whittle down the roster during training camp/pre-season. It's not that far away.

Ok, with that out of the way, the media-open OTA caravan comes back into town in Davie, and once again we have loads of conflicting reports from the heavy-hitters of the Dolphins beat writer clan. I thought about creating a table showing how differently Omar, Edgar and (cough)Armando(cough) see things at these OTAs. But then I realized I would be here all day and night.

So instead, I suggest you keep an eye on Omar's blog for insight, Edgar's blog for outrageous claims (that usually turn out to be right about a week later), and Armando's blog if my ego isn't big enough for you.

In the end, I always find the actual Aquavision videos to be the best indicator of how things are going. There are certain clues in the press conferences and highlight video that many of the media tend to miss, but I have found to be bordering on 'extremely accurate' indicators of where things are.

A couple of examples of my observations:

1. If Sparano mentions you by name in a positive light (says he's 'feeling you'), you are MORE than just doing something right, you are doing something IMPRESSIVE. That translates into the coaches talking about you behind closed doors, in a good way.

2. The order that the players run in drills IS significant. Watch the receiving drills. It rarely varies from this order: Camarillo, Ginn, Bess, Armstrong, etc etc. These four guys are the front runners. Ginn and Bess may be running with the starting team in team drills, but the fact that Camarillo is leading the pack in individual drills means that he still has the full respect and expectation of the coaches. And before anyone says its a seniority thing, remember this, in 2008, Wilford and Hagan did not go first in this line-up, and also this year Brandon London has been running behind Armstrong and at least one rookie, so it's not about seniority, though it doesn't hurt. The same can be said for DB drills, linebacker drills, OL drills, etc. It may seem like seniority at first but that's only because the best players tend to have longer careers and more starts, etc.

3. If Sparano has never mentioned your name EVER in a press conference, the likelihood of you making the final team is close to ZERO. Even Quentin Moses has been mentioned this year. Lowber, to my knowledge had not. There is still time to make an impression, but the more time goes by the more impressive that impression has to be. This does not bode well for about half the OL, including 2009 draftee Andrew Gardner, and our knightly friend SirVincent Rogers. No mention for Mark Lewis or Brandon London (every other receiver has gotten a soundbyte). Believe it or not, in 3 press conferences, Sparano has mentioned at least 2 thirds of the team by name. If your name doesn't get mentioned within the next two weeks (when the OTAs end), you might be out of work soon.

Do you guys notice anything else about how the Dolphins run their off-season that is telling of who makes the team? Or maybe you notice some strategic hints? Let's discuss while we wait for the end of the day reports.

Getting Down to the Nitty-Gritty

April 8th, 2009. In two and a half weeks, we will know who gets chosen with the 25th, 44th, and 56th picks in the NFL Draft. We will be absolutely sure of it. Because it will actually have happened. But back to April the 8th. That's today. And today, NO ONE knows.

R.M. Cox, the Dolphins 'Examiner', whatever the hell that is, can't seem to decide on a position, but at least is summarizing each position and which players out of those positions he would take. That is the drafting for a need method. Here he looks at pass rushers. Here he looks at cornerbacks. Tomorrow will likely be wide receivers.

The Sun-Sentinel's, Omar Kelly, is in firm belief the Dolphins will take Sean Smith. His logic is bent if not broken, however, as he explained during an interview on WQAM this week. He suggested that anytime Parcells shows a huge amount of interest in a player, it's a smoke screen and thus they have no REAL interest in that player. Five minutes later he suggested Smith, because the Dolphins have shown a ton of interest in him. Kelly also stated that the Dolphins will not draft a receiver because the Dolphins have repeatedly said they are happy with who they have and want to develop them. Isn't that repeated indifference to drafting a wide receiver just as much a smoke screen as the over-the-top visits/workouts with Hakeem Nicks and others, bringing along Chad Henne to throw to them? This one could go either way in my opinion, but Kelly seems to have made up his mind. Nothing wrong with that. I wish I could say that I'd made MY mind up.

The Herald's, Armando Salguero, is all set on a cornerback as well. He is Jason-Allen-Hater-Number-One, and thus believes the Dolphins will try to draft a starting RCB to supplant Allen/Green/everybody else. Last time I checked he also was falling for the Hakeem Nicks smoke screen.

The Palm Beach Post hasn't stated their opinions either way (just not their style), but they have only reported workouts by wide receivers and one linebacker in the past month, for some reason skipping over the cornerbacks and other player-visits that have happened in that span. Is that good enough to be assumed an endorsement, if they don't take the other visits seriously, does that mean they take the two they reported VERY seriously? For the record, they reported the visit, but not the workout of Rey Maualuga, and the workouts of Hakeem Nicks and Percy Harvin.

So, to summarize, the local media thinks the big pick will be a wide receiver or a cornerback. The extended media thinks it will be a linebacker (based on a quick look at 12 mock drafts by 'draft gurus', 9 of them thought the Dolphins would take one of the USC linebackers).

Perhaps this is why I feel so conflicted. At first I thought it would be a corner or a receiver. But after weeks of learning through osmosis, and discussing the draft with you guys, I started to turn to the idea that the Dolphins would actually go defensive line with the first pick. And not necessarily a nose tackle as is the general consensus NEED. I started to realize that the Dolphins may be best served, and have likely already thought of this (several times), by creating a line built of huge guys that could rotate in and out and slide around at every position. If anyone can remember back this far, they used to do this in Tampa when they were good. They also do this at several colleges including Missouri (Ziggy Hood). Working in a 3-4 this is much easier because you can find several guys around the same size (6'4", 300lbs) who can create havoc with stunts and shifts that also benefit inside blitzes by linebackers/safeties.

Now I've traipsed off into strategy, but isn't that the point of drafting for need? You know what you plan to do so you draft the players who would best suit your plan?

What is the plan for Percy Harvin? What is the plan for Vontae Davis? If it is simply to play the position of receiver or cornerback to the best of their ability, then surely these positions could wait until the second day. Couldn't they?

But how many players meet the criteria of size, strength, character, athleticism, and position flexibility that would fit into the Dolphins system and strategy?

In my mind, this narrows it down to Ziggy Hood and Connor Barwin. I would put Brandon Pettigrew up here but I don't know how many positions he could play. Similarly, in the second round, I could make arguments for Max Unger, Sean Smith, DJ Moore, James Casey, and William Moore.

So the question is, since the mind-set of other speculators turned my head around to develop my own theory, did my theory in turn do the same for you guys? Do you think there's safety in numbers and the general consensus of the media's obsession with receiver and cornerback is right? Am I to be destined to live on a draft island by myself? I already know that some of you agree at least in part with my theory, but am I off-base on others?

Coming Friday will be my (play scary music here) 2009 Mock Draft!

May The Source Be With You

I tend to take the weekends off from the blog, as well as the newspaper blogs, but lately I've noticed that the stuff I bring up on a Wednesday ends up on the newspapers on a Saturday/Sunday. If it shows up at all.

Case in point, Miami Herald's one-liner extraordinaire, Barry Jackson, who never claims a source but often publishes the one-line stories that we've been waiting to hear, printed this story on Saturday.

Whereas I mentioned Darius Butler as the top Dolphin CB prospect on Wednesday.

I meant to publish this story about prospects I had confirmed were getting interest and meetings with the Dolphins on Wednesday afternoon as well but put it off until Thursday. In it I mentioned CB Sherrod Martin from Troy University. And I mentioned that the Dolphins had sent not lowly scouts but coaches and higher-up management to view and meet with these prospects.

In any event, since Barry Jackson doesn't like to reveal his sources, I'll tell you for him. It's ME! LOL.

My sources on the other hand were from scouring the web looking for prospect-local reports, and Rob Rang and Chad Reuter from NFLdraftscout.com who recently joined forces with CBSSports.com which I am not too happy about.

[Update: Now (Monday) Omar Kelly of the Sun-Sentinel has reported the same Brandon London story I posted on Friday. He said he was unaware of Brandon London's modeling career until he saw him on BET's Rip the Runway concert on TV yesterday. Really? Completely unaware? He also failed to mention that Gibril Wilson, also a member of the same Super-Bowl winning Giants team that London won a ring with, is also a model. Maybe he wasn't on the BET special...]

This just in...Omar Kelly is Alive.....

....and apparently working at a 1920's themed casino....click on photo for details.

This just in - Omar Kelly caught ogling big small black man

When confronted on the previous comment he had made Wednesday about Boston College standout defensive tackle BJ Raji being "small", Sun Sentinel beat writer, Omar Kelly, responded by saying, "He's got a huge butt, and tree trunk for legs. But he's small."

He then continued, "But don't get me wrong. He's powerful. But he's a poor man's Sedrick Ellis."

So what did this miniscule descendent of reggae superstar, Bob Marley, mean when he said Raji was "small?" And was he checking out Sedrick Ellis' butt and thighs last year?

Non-attempts to reach the reporter resulted in no further information being available.

BJ Raji turned in an impressive, almost dominant performance in practice Wednesday, egged on by NFL Network's Mike Mayock's "call-out" of the previous day. Now that Kelly has called out Raji's size, it has been reported that Raji will report to practice tomorrow 3 inches taller than he was previously.

Stay tuned for updates...