Well that does it!

Well, despite all the speculation and some suggestion over what would/could/should happen in regards to Philip Merling and his offseason criminal issues, it's all been taken care of by the news that he has torn his Achilles tendon and will now miss the 2010 season altogether.

Guest Article - Bryan McIntyre regarding Cameron Wake

Hey folks, since I'm slammed at work and have to do two airport runs today, I've decided to post an article from another blogger.  I don't know what Bryan McIntyre's official duties are, but unofficially he's a blogger who gives PFT a run for their money as far as reporting EVERYTHING that happens in the NFL - and he does it without any Sprint Ads or bias although he is obviously from Seattle as their is a slight bent towards their pro-teams Check out his blog here, and if you can handle the occasional Seattle mention (are the Seahawks even relevant anymore?) he's a great source to follow on Twitter (link on his blog).

Line 'em up, Back them down

I recently proposed some examples of how the Dolphins secondary and receiving corps could look come September (seems so far away doesn't it?).  Today I'm speculating about the linebackers - possibly the most interesting group of 2010, since so many changes are likely from the previous season.

I'll be perfectly honest by saying I was not very impressed with Koa Misi in the Utah games I watched this past season.  In the Cal/Utah Poinsetta Bowl, he was just about the most invisible person on the field.  I think he had a half-sack and a hurry, but other than that he looked undersized, slow, and barely average.  Now, to be fair, he was playing DE on every down, so it's hard to see how he would be standing up as a linebacker.  I have to believe he has the tools, and I recall him flashing a bit in that role at the Senior Bowl.  But I'm still a skeptic after watching that Bowl game.  He was in for a good 45 snaps and he made 2 or 3 plays - not impressive.

AJ Edds on the other hand, had sort of the opposite impression on me - he failed to impress me in the off-season, but looks pretty well-polished on game tape.  Ultimately this kid looks to have more upside in the long run and it wouldn't surprise me if he was a team-captain as early as his 3rd season.  I personally think he will replace Reggie 'big contract' Torbor pretty much immediately and I wouldn't be surprised to see Torbor gone before Training Camp.

Austin Spitler is likely competing to make the practice squad.  Not a knock on him - he has upside, but is a victim of a crowded interior.  Ultimately I think both Crowder and Dansby are 3-down LBs with Edds playing the nickel role.  If Torbor is kept as well, then there is zero chance Spitler makes the final cut.  I think if it comes down to choosing between keeping a 4th ILB or an extra TE/WR/RB, that Sparano will choose the offensive player.

To me, the most intriguing new LB is the one taken with the 212th pick, Chris McCoy, out of Middle Tennessee State.  A small school guy, the only non-team-captain chosen by the Trifecta, he looks immediately at first glance like a raw player with lots of potential.  Ultimately if he wants to make the team he's going to have to be a scholar with the playbook and show he can play with the big boys because I think he wins an athleticism and upside battle with holdovers like Quentin Moses and Brian Johnston.

I don't really have much to say about Karlos Dansby.  To put it bluntly he was the top prize of the free agency period and we got him.  He is a beast of a player and should be a good influence in the locker room.  I expect Mike Nolan will use Dansby as a blitz specialist throughout the season.  Expect him to be a disruptive player.

Channing Crowder is by no means a lock to be on the team in 2010, but he's closer to one than every LB not named Dansby.  He will continue to be a run-stopper LB, coming out on passing downs, but he could have a breakout year due to Nolan's blitz packages.  I don't know off the top of my head what Crowder's best sack total is, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring in 6 or 7 this season.

Now, here are my prospective groupings for the 2010 season:


SCENARIO 1:

SCENARIO 2:

SCENARIO 3:

SCENARIO 4:

Turning the Corner in 2010

The Dolphins secondary looks about as different as it possibly could from the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2010. Just 14 months ago, we had Andre Goodman, Will Allen, Yeremiah Bell, Renaldo Hill, Nate Jones, Jason Allen, Tyrone Culver, Will Billingsley and Courtney Bryan on the roster.

Gone are Bryan, Billingsley, Jones, Goodman, and Hill. Jason Allen was moved to cornerback officially. There's a significant chance he'll be moved back to safety this year depending on how the DB battles play out. Will Allen got a big contract, then got injured and missed most of 2009, allowing the 2009 rookie Vontae Davis to prove he's starter material. Fellow 2009 rookie, Sean Smith locked up the vacancy left by Andre Goodman's departure. Gibril Wilson was brought in to replace Hill, but is now gone, soon to be replaced by either another 2009 rookie, Chris Clemons, Culver, or 2010 rookie Reshad Jones.

The Trifecta also drafted cornerback, Nolan Carroll, and bolstered their 2010 class by signing Johnathon Amaya, AJ Wallace and Ross Weaver as free agents. They also have Nate Ness and Evan Oglesby as their developmental holdovers from 2009.

So Miami currently has 8 cornerbacks and 6 safeties on the roster. Four of the fourteen candidates have the ability to play multiple positions, i.e. corner/safety/nickel. They are Jason Allen, Chris Clemons, Nolan Carroll and Nate Ness. Taking that into consideration, here are some projected potential lineups for opening day 2010.


LINE-UP 1:

LINE-UP 2:

LINE-UP 3:

This kid Amaya (wearing #2 and playing both safety and wr in video) could come in and totally rock the boat. He is my projected 'Davone Bess' of 2010.

Linebackers - Does Size Matter?

Joey Porter will be leaving on March 5th.  Akin Ayodele may be following him, according to the Sun-Sentinel.  Channing Crowder's radio show hosting of Porter's rant has led to speculation, and Cameron Wake, according to just about everyone except for game tape, cannot play at an NFL level.  JD Folsom is a project, Reggie Torbor is overpaid, Charlie Anderson is overpaid and over-flagged, and Quentin Moses is still a project.  Jason Taylor probably has one more year left in the tank - actually if I were a betting man I'd say it's more likely two-thirds of a year.  Erik Walden hasn't been able to handle more than special teams, and Brian Johnston couldn't even make it on the Chiefs roster.

Eleven football players with two things in common:  1.  They all play linebacker for the Dolphins, and 2. Their futures are uncertain in one way or another.

I expect by training camp we will have 5 or 6 ILBs and 7 or 8 OLBs competing for a spot.  The Dolphins's LB make-up could be very different come opening week of the 2010 season.

Now we know the top ILB in free agency is Karlos Dansby.  The top OLB is...well it's actually going to be Joey Porter, and we know we won't go there.  The truth is the youngest, most talented OLB available at this point would be Scott Fujita of the New Orleans Saints.  But he would be asked to move inside in the Dolphins defense, and at 31 years old, his conversion could be a real risk.  

No, free agency is not where we'll find any quality OLBs, at least not unless Matt Roth decides to come home.  So we look to the Draft.  And running the Draft this year will be the Trifecta and their underlings, Dan Henning, and new Defensive Coordinator, Mike Nolan.

Nolan is a branch of the Al Groh tree.  Al Groh is a branch of the Bill Parcells tree.  You may think that makes Nolan and Parcells share some core beliefs such as scheme and what they look for in personnel.  Not entirely the case.  Nolan actually started out running a 4-3, and only switched to a 3-4 in the past decade.  Nolan has been a part of drafting some significant names in the NFL, but has also worked with what he had on the roster before he showed up, whereas Parcells has more or less preferred to bring in his own players.  

So how does the replacing, bolstering, upgrading and shoring up of the linebacking corp go with Nolan in the mix?  I say with some basis in fact but even more so in speculation that Parcells wants someone with Jason Pierre Paul's measurables.  6'6", 265 lbs, 4.6 forty, and all the athleticism in the world.  Someone he can work with and mold into a future force.  Nolan, on the other hand, is more likely to take a proven player he thinks can start straight away.

With the Baltimore Ravens, Nolan drafted Peter Boulware, 6'4", 255 lbs.  With the Jets he drafted John Abraham, 6'4" 254 lbs.  You would think he would stick to that mold of player as he carried on in his career, but after he inherited Andre Carter, 6'4" 260lbs, on the 49ers squad, he suddenly started moving towards shorter, squattier guys (Brandon Moore, Parys Harrelson), before implementing the 3-4 in Denver last year and moving Elvis Dumervil, 6'0", 255lbs into a stand-up pass-rushing role.   What made him change his understanding of what a pass-rusher should look like?  

Parcells, I believe, has not changed from his ideal 6'4" and above pass-rusher.  And he hasn't changed from his belief that he can take the guy with the best measurables and make him into the player he wants him to be.  

Sparano will just want someone who brings something to the table in the locker room, in the meeting room, and who hustles on the field.  He'd prefer someone who isn't limited by his measurables, but is probably more in tune to the intangibles.

So I ask you, what linebackers do you see the Dolphins going after this off-season?  Here is my guess:

OUTSIDE

Parcells:     Jason Pierre-Paul

Sparano:    George Selvie

Nolan:        Brandon Graham

Henning:    Convert Pat White to LB - "Pat can do it all!"

INSIDE

Parcells:       Rolando McClain

Sparano:      Joe Pawelek

Nolan:          Patrick Angerer

Henning:      "There was this kid one time, played for the Eagles in '72, I liked that kid.  Maybe he has a kid. That's who we'll get.  Next question."

2010 Draft – Tinshaker’s Top 10 by Position Projections - SAFETY

For the purposes of the Dolphins, I have focused almost exclusively on Free Safeties below as I feel between Yeremiah Bell, Tyrone Culver and Gibril Wilson, we're quite stacked at the Strong Safety position (and yes, the Dolphins really have no choice but to move Wilson to Strong Safety - perhaps working Culver exclusively at free in the offseason).

The Trifecta seems to like safeties in the 6', 200 lbs range but that doesn't mean they won't choose someone bigger if they move just as well in space and have speed and sound tackling because there's quite a few big boys in this year's draft.

2010 Draft – Tinshaker’s Top 10 by Position Projections - DEFENSIVE TACKLE

The Dolphins will be naming a new Defensive Coordinator soon, and whomever it is, he's going to inherit a Defense that has lots of questions to be answered regarding personnel.  Some are getting long in the tooth, some are facing free agency, and some just don't exist and need to be found and plugged in to the framework set by the first two years of Trifecta management.

Below is a preliminary ranking/sample of Defensive Tackles in the upcoming draft.  I've actually had to redo this at the last minute after some players decided (at the last minute) to stay in school.  I didn't want a repeat of the Greg Jones incident.  As far as I'm aware, all of the guys on the list will be entering the draft.  The deadline for announcing is actually tomorrow, and I was going to post this then but it could be a busy day in Dolphins news tomorrow so I moved up the publishing date.

Once the dust settles, I will post the Top Ten Safeties and the Top Ten Tight Ends.  The rest of the positions will follow with a goal of having them all posted by the 23rd when I will do an East-West Shrine Game intro with a recap of all the 'Top Ten' players that are set to play in the game.  The following week is the Senior Bowl practices and I will recap the players in that game (30th) as well.  

This will all culminate what I'm calling 'Mock Week' by which we'll know the full draft order, and thus we'll all begin piecing together our preliminary mocks.  Once we have an idea how the draft may go, and teams have had a chance to start applying tags and resigning players, we can start to focus on Free Agency, which starts on February 27th.

So for now, the Defensive Tackles:

2010 Draft – Tinshaker’s Top 10 by Position Projections - INSIDE LINEBACKER

Well the first Tin's Fins Poll of 2010 just wrapped up and as I expected, Rolando McClain of Alabama took 1st place when the question asked was who should the Dolphins choose with their 1st round draft pick this year.  He took about half the vote despite there being 6 solid choices.  Terrence Cody (NT) came in 2nd, with Dez Bryant (WR) in third but McClain had more votes than both of them combined.

So clearly the people have spoken, and clearly they want an inside line-backer in the first round, and clearly the one they want is McClain.  For the record, Brandon Spikes of Florida came in a respectable 4th.

Below is my latest Top 10 List of Inside Linebackers available in the 2010 draft.  It's not a hugely impressionable list, so it might be the wisest move to use that 12th pick rather than wait.  

D-D-D-DONE!

The Dolphins have finally come to their senses and fired Defensive Coordinator, Paul Pasqualoni.  

Pasqualoni (frequently referred to a 'Pass the Baloney' on this site) will now have to fry his eggs elsewhere.  While there have been rumours that the Dolphins are interested in Romeo Crennel as a replacement, Crennel is reportedly joining the Kansas City Chiefs.  With Al Groh reportedly joining Georgia Tech, and Crennel's contract perhaps not yet signed, it's possible the Dolphins will swoop in to steal one of these guys before the end of the day.  A signing would have to be immediate to snatch one of the big names before they sign elsewhere, so stay tuned...

...in a related note, the Dolphins coaching staff are scheduled to coach the Senior Bowl, and at the moment, they only have two defensive coaches left - Todd Bowles (DBs) and Kacy Rodgers (DL).  Both Bowles and Rodgers have outside chances of promotion.

The Roth Math

It's amazing how much confusion the media can cause when left unchecked, so here's the deal on Matt Roth eligibility.

NFL rules clearly state that a player on the inactive PUP list is not allowed to practice until AFTER WEEK six. This means that he is technically allowed to practice starting on Tuesday morning (10/20/09).

He's allowed to put on pads/helmet/jock, etc. and bang heads starting no sooner than that day.

The Dolphins need to have him activated by the weekly deadline in order to have him eligible for the game that week. This part I don't know for sure but I believe it is Wednesday at 7pm Eastern. This is why no one is ever traded or signed late in the week.

So, despite the fact that Matt Roth may be at practice on Tuesday morning, he will not technically be a part of the 53 man roster, therefore he is in-eligible to play until Miami makes a decision on whether to 'activate' him (he is signed, and does count against the salary cap, just not the 53), or place him on season-ending injured reserve. They have three weeks to decide.

The confusion is coming out of the fact that Miami has a BYE in week six. The rules are not about the individual team games, but the physical time, i.e. 6 weeks, not 6 games.

However, the likelihood that Miami would rush to decide on whether to activate him after only Tuesday and Wednesday practice, is low. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I know if I were the GM, I wouldn't even think about making that decision in the first week. Besides the fact that Roth would be coming in (even if 100% healthy) at week 1 speed when everyone else is at week 7 speed, there is also the conundrum of having to let another player go before activating him.

So to summarize, Matt Roth is allowed per NFL rules to rejoin the team as soon as Tuesday as an active member. Being 'allowed to be activated' and 'being activated' are too very different things and could be days or weeks apart.

Fix What Is Broken

Heading into the 2009 season, hopes were high that the Dolphins Defense would be significantly better than it was in 2008.  So far, it hasn't been.  And that doesn't sit well with myself and other fans, because we can see the problems.  And the Dolphins management is acting like there isn't a problem.  

Just like we could see that we needed to run the ball with force and determination, and the Dolphins management seemed unwilling to try it in week 1, was hugely successful with it in week 2, then abandoned it after only a quarter (a successful quarter in terms of time management) in week 3.  I think the issue here lies more on the ideas of the coordinators and the UPPER management than on Head Coach, Tony Sparano, but ultimately, he'll be the one to lose his job and take the blame if things don't turn around.  

So here are my 'inside tips' that only we fans seem to know.  Maybe the Dolphins coaching staff can find something helpful in the paragraphs below.

• The core defensive line is doing a good job.  Ferguson, Starks, Merling, and Langford have looked stout and have been sure tacklers.  Maybe, just maybe, you should show the film of how they are moving in tight spaces and wrapping up ball-carriers, to your linebackers, corners and safeties, who can't seem to get in the right gaps, or tackle people when they are in position.  Instead of using Jason Taylor as an example, use someone who's actually getting the job done. 
  

• Gibril Wilson is slow, aims to 'pop' receivers instead of wrapping them up, and does not play deep enough, possibly because he's scared he's too slow to recover.  But he's getting the ball thrown over his head.  The free safety is supposed to keep the ball in front of him.  The fact he keeps getting thrown over the top of his head, means Pasqualoni isn't correcting him.  If he is correcting him, Wilson isn't learning the lesson.  One of these two needs to be benched and I vote for whomever the guilty party is.  Considering the other facets of the defense that aren't working, I'm leaning more towards Pasqualoni at the moment.

• Will Allen is not a slot corner.  He's very good on the outside, but he cannot track across the field.  I've seen it, you've seen it, the Dolphins have tons of game film showing this.  Yet they still continue to move him inside on nickel downs alternating him with Nate Jones., another guy who seems to get lost in the middle of the field. There is no reason why Jason Allen has not been given more than a baby's handful of reps.  As a converted Safety, he is much better at covering the middle and has the speed to hold up to the quick slant.  

• So much was made of the overload of talent at outside line-backer.  It was sooo good that we collectively dismissed Matt Roth's injury as a distraction rather than a major cause for concern.  Once the roster was whittled down, we figured we would have a ton of fresh bodies circulating in and out, providing consistent pressure on opposing QBs.  But that's not how the Dolphins seem to want to do it.  They'd rather have Joey Porter and Jason Taylor do it all on their own.  Forget Wake.  Forget Moses.  Forget Walden.  And I really wish they would forget Charlie Anderson, who shouldn't have even made the roster.  Since we were already down Matt Roth, we should have kept someone like Tearrius George or Orion Martin to help beef up the strong side.  When the Dolphins realize that Cameron Wake and Quentin Moses can rush the QB as well, maybe JT won't get run all over like he has been.  At some point you have to be realistic and see that your superstar isn't playing at a high enough level, and probably can't handle the rep count.
  

• The Rookies.  The Dolphins like to talk about not rushing a player through developmental stages, etc.  But they don't walk the walk.  Davone Bess, Jake Long, Donald Thomas, Philip Merling, Kendall Langford, amongst others were first year starters in 2008.  And look how that turned out.  In 2009, they only Sean Smith has gotten any significant playing time with 1st round pick Vontae Davis coming in distant second.  Turner, Hartline,  Gardner, Nalbone, Clemons, and Wake have barely touched the field or not dressed for games at all.  Well I have to say something to the NFL geniuses out there.  Rookies can and DO make impacts, often significant ones.  And the only way to make sure they don't get 'scared' is to put them in the game.  Has Will Allen looked good this season?  Has Gibril Wilson?  Has Anthony Fasano?  Has Greg Camarillo?  Has Vernon Carey?  Has Jason Taylor?  Let's be honest, none of these guys has looked like starters out there.  I'm not saying bench them and start the rookies, but surely the vets could do with a break on the rep count.  I noticed they used Nate Garner in the San Diego game, and he looked pretty damn good, better than he probably ever has.  Better, I dare say, than Vernon Carey.  But at the same time, on 3rd and goal from the 2 yard line, Nate Garner officially got more NFL pass route running in a game than Patrick Turner and John Nalbone combined.  This paragraph is about both the defense and the offense, but the core thought here is that the Dolphins management is so busy trying to fool people, keep things secret, and 'protect' their rookies, they've forgotten to line up our guys versus their guys, and play football.
  

So what I'm saying here, is that things do need to change, but I'm not confident that the changes made are going to be the logical ones.  Because we haven't seen a whole lot of logic so far.

Coming up on Thursday we get back to having some fun, as our first opportunity of the season to  actually bash an opponent (at least on paper) occurs.  It's the Buffalo Bills, people!  If we can't beat them, we should join the new Arena League.

Miami Has Best Defense in AFC East - Part 2

This is the second part of my attempt to show that Miami's defense will make the biggest noise in the AFC East in 2009.  If you missed Part 1, click here.

Part 2 - New England Patriots

Ty Warren, Jarvis Green and Vince Wilfork. Not bad.  Wilfork is the guy you gameplan against, but Jarvis and Warren have plenty of experience between them.  Up until a week ago, Jarvis was the backup.  The Richard Seymour trade was likely palatable to Belichick because he believes that Green can fill Seymour's giant shoes.  But in 7 years of playing together, Green never supplanted Seymour, starting only when there was an injury.  I expect the NE line to be pretty good but not  as intimidating as they once were.  Seymour is 6'6", 310 lbs.  Green is 6'3" 290lbs.  Still good size, but not Richard Seymour size.

In the Depth Department, New England's not doing as well as they'd like.  2nd round draft pick, Ron Brace, has barely shown up so far.  He is listed 3rd on the depth chart behind Wilfork and Mike Wright, a 295lb injury-riddled, situational player who has played every position on the line.  He's like a Randy Starks, if Starks had spent most of his career in the hospital.  Meanwhile, their best young player, Myron Pryor, is undersized at 6'1" and is currently injured and not practicing.

As I mentioned in part one, the average size of Miami's defensive line is 6'4.3", 307 lbs. And they are a healthy bunch.  From my recollection, only Jason Ferguson missed any time due to injury in 2008.  And none of the seven have had any injuries during the off-season/pre-season.  

At linebacker, the Dolphins have something the Patriots don't have.  A pass-rusher.  Okay, they traded for Derrick Burgess.  How about two pass-rushers? Oh, before we go any further it's important to state that Burgess is not the starter.  They have Pierre Woods at WOLB.  IN 2008 he registered ONE sack in 12 games. On the other side is converted pass rusher Adalius Thomas who registered just 5 sacks in 2008 to lead the team.  Oh wait, that's not right...it was Richard Seymour who led the team in 2008 with 8 sacks.  As a team they only registered 30 total. 10 of those came from the linebackers including 4 from another player they shipped off, Mike Vrabel. 

On the inside they have 2008 Rookie sensation Jerod Mayo, and 2008 undrafted rookie free agent Gary Guyton.  Everyone loves to talk up Jerod Mayo, but he is not a big playmaker, more the dependable tackler.

It's not often Miami's inside linebackers get the edge vs most of the teams in the NFL, but here we're clearly better, with Crowder, Ayodele and Torbor compared to Mayo, Guyton and the third guy, Eric Alexander, who played in only one game and only on kick coverage in 2008.  Even Torbor's an upgrade over this guy.

I don't envy the Pats' secondary one bit.  Both starters at cornerback, Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden, have never played a regular season game for the Pats.  Leigh Bodden was the guy I wanted to pick up instead of Eric Green during free agency.  He had 80 tackles last year as a cornerback.  That's how much opponents were just throwing the rock against Detroit in 2008.  Still, he was the best player on that defense.  But does he know how to WIN?  Springs ain't no spring chicken.  At 34 years of age, he makes our secondary look like babies.  Meanwhile, the Patriots went after Darius Butler early in the draft this year and he has come as close to being a draft bust as you can get without actually starting the season.  He is dead last on the depth chart and probably only made the roster because he was a high draft pick.  

Their safeties are young, not particularly exciting, and once again, another rookie, Pat Chung, has not been consistent thus far.  I read a handful of reports on the starters, Meriweather and Sanders and the consensus is 'average' with early reports that Meriweather was not starter material and that's why the Pats drafted Chung.

The more I watch tape of last year, the more impressed I am by Yeremiah Bell.  He made two game-winning pass breakups, and registered the most tackles on the team.   He seems to possess a great balance of stoicism and quick reaction time.  Gibril Wilson, at the very least, is bigger and tougher than Renaldo Hill, and sharper than Chris Crocker (no, not the Britney Spears guy).  Where we win hands down is the depth.  All three of our rookie DBs have looked good in their time leading up til now.  Our veterans seem re-energized and focused on proving 2008 was not a fluke.  And, this is a highly paid bunch.  With Wilson, Bell, Allen, and Davis making big dents in the salary cap and Smith, J. Allen and Culver making medium sized dents, this is a team that will be expected to perform at a certain level. 

As long as their heart and talent lives up to those expectations, there will be some pro-bowl material out there, which is more than I can say for the Patriots defense.  Not one of their defensive players would make my pre-season prediction list to make the pro-bowl.  I can easily name a handful from Miami that would.

Miami Has Best Defense in AFC East - Part 1

Let's face it. The Dolphins have the most likely IMPACT DEFENSE in the division. It's not an easy argument to sell to most outsiders, but let me give it a go. Feel free to agree/disagree/add to the argument.

Part One - The Buffalo Bills

There's no denying that Buffalo has a fine set of starting defensive linemen. Kelsay, Stroud, Williams and Schobel are among the best groups of starting 4-3 linemen in the NFL. But the Bills are the only team in the division still running a 4-3 scheme. And when you have four guys on the line on every play you need extra reserves. And Buffalo's reserves are NOT good. They are small, injury prone, lack experience and let's face it, any reserve DT in a 4-3 is going to be at best, the 3rd best player at the position. As several of you tend to point out, the best reserve is someone who could be starting for any team but your starter is just a bit better. Well, in these guys' cases, they're not a shave under the first guy, they're under the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and possibly 5th guy.

In comparison, the Dolphins had plenty of competition for their starting line-up, and several of the reserves have looked very strong in the pre-season. And they're a big bunch, averaging over 6'4" and 307lbs. But besides size, they're all very athletic.

Things get worse as you move into the second level. Now, Kawika Mitchell is a very good LB, if you ask me, but his sidekick, Paul Posluszny is very over-rated, in my opinion. I'm not saying he isn't a good linebacker, but his size is suspect and his numbers could be inflated by the lack of support around him. The Bills run defense gave 312 yards to the Patriots last year. The Patriots!! On the other side of Poz, is Keith Ellison, who is just another body, and a small one at that at 6'0", 229lbs.

The Dolphins are pretty stacked at LB thanks to the overload of pass rushers kept on to allow more of a rotation to increase the level of blitzing. Only one of Buffalo's linebackers are smaller than our 7th round drafted practice squadder JD Folsom.

Then things get ugly as you move into the secondary. McKelvin is serviceable and McGee is pretty good but once again, very undersized. Their is no depth at corner, but they kept 6 on the roster. Then there's the Safety position. No one on this team would be starting on another team. Donte Whitner in 3 years in the league has more arrests than interceptions and sacks combined. I don't want to say anything bad about Bryan Scott, the strong safety because he's a classy guy, which is rare in Buffalo, not to mention the entire NFL. But he's only started 16 games once in 6 years in the league and that was the only year he had over 68 tackles in. His size, 6'1" 219lbs makes him just as big as Buffalo's linebackers. Once again, their is no depth to speak of at this position.

Miami kept nine defensive backs in comparison to Buffalo's eleven. And increased competition has helped out this unit as well. I like the idea that even though Sean Smith will start on Sunday, Vontae Davis will forever be clipping at his heels. And Jason Allen and Nate Jones both have huge incentive to play the best football of their lives this year. The only concern with the secondary is that we still don't know if Gibril Wilson is THE guy. To be honest, with Tyrone Culver and Chris Clemons in reserve, I don't see the coaching staff hesitating to make a change if necessary.

The Half-Way House is Seven Eighths Full - Part 2, The Defense

Yesterday, we looked at some of the offensive progression through training camp and two pre-season games. For the most part, the unanswered questions on that side of the ball remain unanswered. We know who the starting right guard will be, but we won't know until game 3 who the starting receivers are, and probably won't know until game 4 who the reserve offensive linemen will be. But despite that uncertainty, the future looks brighter than it did in 2008.

Today we venture into my favorite side of the line of scrimmage - the one where you get to hit someone. The defense of the 2009 Miami Dolphins looks good on paper, and minus a couple of big plays here and there during the pre-season, has looked good on the field has well. The most noticeable strength is the front 7. The jury is still out on the secondary, but I'm confident, if nothing else, it will be stronger than it was last year.

Let's look back to our pre-season previews and compare where we are now:

DEFENSIVE LINE

Jason Ferguson - We were probably all worried that he had lost a step after a down year production-wise, but Fergie looks quick, strong, and as commanding of a nose-tackle as he ever did. Sure, it's just pre-season, and he will wear down as the snap count rises, but for now we don't have anything to worry about, especially because....
Louis Ellis - I said back in June that Ellis had shown some potential but at a weak level of competition and wondered about his work ethic. After seeing him play in the last two games, I know he's a keeper, at least on the practice squad. Did you see him blow past the o-line to get to the QB vs Carolina? I can't remember ever seeing a nose-tackle move that fast. And this guy is built like a wall. I suspect the Dolphins see something in him or he wouldn't have survived this long as a the 4th string NT. With Joe Cohen recently released, Ellis is in better shape now to showcase his talent.
Philip Merling - Merling was projected to be a starter before any OTAs started, but I suspect his inability to get off the line is the main reason for his slip from that status. Last year, Kendall Langford was the one applying QB pressure and Merling was better as a run-stopper. Nothing seems to have changed there. Merling isn't a BAD lineman, he's just not showing an ability to apply pressure. He still makes tackles and has been pretty strong versus the run game. Randy Starks, on the other hand, is better at getting into the backfield, and since this regime seems obsessed with rushing the passer, I suspect they'd prefer to have their linemen do that first and let the LBs handle most of the run-stopping.
Tony McDaniel - I said back in June that McDaniel could have an upper hand in the reserve battle as he could move around the line, much like Starks did in 2008. If Starks is to be the starting RDE, then someone would have to take over his role from the previous year. McDaniel flashed some real athleticism in Game 1, but to be honest, did not have a strong Game 2. The jury is still out on where he falls on the roster.
Lionel Dotson - Dotson has really shown up this year after coming in undersized and under-prepared in 2008. He has been applying a lot of pressure on the QBs in the first 2 games and we've heard a lot of buzz around him coming out of practices. Last year they kept him on the 53 to save him from being picked off of waivers. He did eventually get to play in a couple of games after Ferguson got injured. I think this year he will solidify himself to the point heading into 2010 he'll be considered a 'lock'.

LINEBACKER

Channing Crowder - I know, Crowder gets enough press, but he deserves some mention as he has looked like a different beast in the pre-season. He is actually getting to the quarterback on blitzes. Obviously the Dolphins plan on throwing the kitchen sink at opposing quarterbacks this year, and Crowder could be considered the soap dispenser - not the heavyweight of the basin, or the stainless steel of the faucet, but he just might poke you in the eye, and soap burns once it gets in the eye. Of course, all this blitzing eventually results in turnovers, and isn't that what we all wanted Crowder to contribute?
Reggie Torbor - The most overpaid backup in the NFL has a target on his back. If he doesn't prove that he is worth even half that money, he may be on the chopping block next year. Probably our best bet is if he shows up and we can manage to trade him, because he's not about to take a paycut. Still, he has the energy and the physical skills, but his fundamentals were shaky in 2008 as he adjusted to the 3-4. Perhaps now is his time.
JD Folsom - Wow. Where do I start? I pretty much came out and said this was a horrible draft pick and there was no point even putting a Dolphins logo on his helmet. But he has 'flashed' at times in practice, laying bigger than anticipated hits on people, and has an INT and a tackle for a loss in limited play in the pre-season. He still looks like a big safety, and could be used as a situational player, but he'll probably end up on the practice squad. I still can't believe the Dolphins chose him over Nick Reed. You know how some fans won't let go that we didn't draft Brady Quinn? I think that will be me in 4 years - "We could've had Nick Reed!!" (for the record, in two preseason games, Reed has blocked two punts, forced a fumble, made an amazing interception, and has 3.5 sacks!)
Charlie Anderson - Anderson is a sort of mild-mannered outside linebacker. You can't even put those words together and make it sound right. This guy looks depressed on the sidelines and though he has looked pretty sharp on special teams lately, he's on the losing end of a battle. I said back on June 28th that the Dolphins would likely keep 8 linebackers, with at least 3 of those being inside guys, leaving a maximum of 5 OLBs. I'd be willing to change that number to 9 total, if at least one of them could play both inside and outside. But I don't think I'll need to. Anderson could still have a good shot at making the team.
Matt Roth - I didn't think I'd be needing to mention Roth's name at all in this article. In June I said he wasn't a lock to start, but was probable. At this point, I honestly don't see him being on the 53-man roster. We're about to head into game 3 on Thursday night. The team will have Friday off and return to practice on Saturday. If Roth is not on the field and moving at a high rate heading into the final week of the pre-season, how could the coaches possibly justify putting him on the field ahead of someone like Quentin Moses who has shown tremendous growth? If I were the GM, he'd be on the PUP list as of next week.
Cameron Wake - In June I wrote, "This could be the biggest impact player of training camp. His inability to stand out in the pajama parties could make him even that much more noticeable once they start going full speed." Well, in hindsight I should've said in pre-season instead of in training camp. Any guy that can get to the QB while being held by the facemask is A-OK in my book. Having Porter, Taylor and Wake on the team have really eased the frustration of Roth being sidelined. You would think Roth would want to get out there to prove his relevance. SO how many sacks are we predicting for Wake this year? 20? 25? ;)

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Vontae Davis - Well, despite everyone wanting to throw Davis under the bus after Game 1 vs Jacksonville, I've been very impressed by this rookie's ability to glue himself into the backs of the receivers he's been covering. His fundamentals are better than I thought they were and his tackling has been superb (maybe he can teach some of the vets a thing or two). Two or three times now he's shown that he cannot be juked in the open field. That's something that overly-aggressive players usually get burned on, but he's shown he's not a complete animal but has some ability to be patient.
Jason Allen and Sean Smith - I have to reserve judgment because of their absences last week. Both showed good skills in game 1, but despite Smith's rise to the starting line-up, I'm confident that if Davis continues his strong play, he could wrestle that spot away from Smith. Allen should be secure to make the roster but he'll probably always be the 'most-requested' trade from Dolfans.
Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson - It's not easy being a highly paid starting safety in the NFL. You have one bad game and people start questioning whether or not you belong in the league. These guys are going to be tested this week versus Tampa Bay as they face off a stable of powerful running backs, and a couple of very capable tight-ends. The Bucs' starting WRs are pretty good too and our CBs may need more help this week than in the two previous ones.
Tyrone Culver and Chris Clemons - Another hard one to judge - Culver was fantastic in game 1 and terrible in game 2. Clemons was not so good in game 1 but great in game 2. In any event, both have shown enough to make the team.

There are still a lot of questions to be answered on Defense, but they're not the same questions as in previous years (i.e. which of these shi**y players is not as bad as the others?). Now we get to really put a good group on the field and have solid backups. Which defensive player, vet or rookie, do you see making the biggest impact this year?

Note: Tomorrow morning I will post the PREVIEW of the Tampa Bay game, and on Friday we'll do a RE-CAP. But come Monday morning, I expect everyone to have their projected 53-man rosters ready for comparison before Tuesdays cuts (the Dolphins don't actually have to cut anyone since they're already under the limit).

Last Line of Defense, Part 2 - The Corners

It takes a lot of guts to stand one on one on a receiver out in the open field. It takes a lot of physical ability as well. You need to have 'the feet' and 'the hips', etc. But the most important aspect of a great cornerback, is the ability to use these tools without having to think about it. In fact, it's best not to think at all, if possible. Sure, your past experience can provide a boost to your game and create more opportunities for big plays, but you don't want to be thinking about your past experiences, or your footwork, or your courage once the ball is snapped.

You want to be fully prepared with all that stuff beforehand, so that once the game is on, you can just react. Because no one on the football field has to have a faster reaction time than the cornerback. In an upcoming blog article, I'm going to show everyone how Dolphins WRs Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline were able to get separation on cornerbacks in college, and with the included video you'll see just how fast the cornerback would have to react in order to prevent the catch. I hope to have that up by next Monday so keep checking back for it.

In the meantime, here are the eight cornerbacks currently on Miami's roster, with my quick assessments of them:

Will Allen, # 25.
Well, Will, you've just signed a brand spanking new contract worth millions! What are you going to do now?
"I'm going to prove I'm worth that money by doubling my career interception total in the 2009 season alone!" (note to reader: Will did not actually say this)
"oh, yeah, and as a bonus, I'm going to mentor the younger guys so that we can turn Miami's Secondary into a top 5 unit!" (not to reader: Will did not say this either, and for the record, I would be happy if they were a top 15 unit in 2009)
Okay, we all know Will's a starter and 90% of the time very solid at that position. But even aged veterans can improve their play, right? He had a couple of REALLY poor games in 2008. Mr. Consistent should try to be even more so (consistent, that is). Although some of his poor play was due to injury, and we didn't have the depth to rest him. It should be a different story this year.

Jason Allen, # 32.
Well this year is the 's*** or get off the pot' year for Allen, according to the legion of 'FA TRA JA' also known as 'Fans for the Trading of Jason Allen'. They had the same mantra last year as well. And probably the year before that. A lot of fans and media alike can't allow themselves to see that just because Jason Allen isn't Nnamdi Asomugha, doesn't mean that he should be dumped. It's like if someone offers you a free pizza and you say "um, excuse me, there's no extra cheese on this, it's only moderately cheesy, I don't want it, take it away!" Ok, Jason Allen is not free, and is not a pizza, but the argument is that we want top quality starters, and then everyone else must go. Well that's not the way championship teams work. No matter how good your starters are, they cannot play every play and they will get injured. You need depth at every position. Whether Allen turns into a full-time starter is irrelevant. He's a damn good football player. Plus, if we let him go he will end up on the Jets/Pats/Bills and wreak havoc on us twice a year.

Vontae Davis, # 24.
I'm this close to doing a 180 on my April assessment of Vontae. I originally thought he had tons of ability but was lacking in the mental aspect of the game. Now, I'm starting to feel that he may not be as good as I thought he was, but he's definitely smarter than I thought he was. Ok, he has the most annoying voice I've ever heard from a grown man, and not the largest vocabulary, but everything he's said and done since being drafted by the Dolphins has shown that he is very mature, or at least smart enough to know he needs to be mature, and each press interview he says something that blows me a way because I wouldn't expect that chunk of wisdom to come from him. This kid knows what he's doing. He's taking his time. Media reports are that he hasn't flashed anything during OTAs, whereas the other rookie has. Truth is, by not being noticeable, it means he's not getting blown up either. He is studying the game, the scheme, the players, etc. Keep an eye on Davis. I think he wants this more than any other corner on the roster. And he's going about it the right way.

Will Billingsley, # 27.
I can't think of any other player that's been given half a dozen chances in one season to make the roster like Billingsley has. He went undrafted, was out of football for a year, then signed with Miami in April 2008. Since then he was cut in August, added to the practice squad on August 31st, cut on September 25th, signed on October 6th, cut on October 9th, signed on October 14th, cut on November 21st before being signed again to the practice squad the final week of the season. He then was signed off the PS in January. What does all this mean? Well firstly, it means that the Dolphins like something about him to keep bringing him back. It also means that more than once they've thought that he was expendable. I know nothing about his play on the field, so we'll leave it at that.

Sean Smith, # 31.
Every now and then a rookie comes along and gets all the buzz during OTAs then fizzles when the pads are put on. I don't think that will be Sean Smith though. I've gone back and watched more of his play and noticed something very interesting. Besides his amazing skill-set/size/speed combo, he was allowed to do certain things at Utah because they would line up a safety noticeably close to Smith (ten yards or so). As far as I can tell, this was a safety measure as Smith would line up RIGHT IN THE FACE of his receiver and would get into the guys' shoes practically. This kind of aggressiveness can often lead to getting burned if he were to miss on the jam. I believe they put the safety on Smith to allow him to be that aggressive. If the Dolphins do the same thing, this guy could cause a lot of problems for the opposing offense. Of course it could also lead to a rookie getting beat badly time and again and heartburn in a lot of fans. Of course, there's a guy who plays for the Raiders (mentioned above) who plays this way as well, and opposing QBs and offensive coordinators don't even look at that side of the field anymore.

Eric Green, # 21.
Green has been a starter in this league and has been effective. But then he got injured, got benched, had a tragic loss, and was not allowed to dress for the Super Bowl (let's face it, if you're a Cardinal and you make it to the Super Bowl, it's probably your only chance). He seems all smiley and confident on the outside but I suspect he's not the same player he was a couple of years ago. Still, he's better than the depth we had last year. It will be strange at first seeing a #21 out there who's not Andre Goodman, especially if Green were to win Goodman's old spot.

Nate Jones, # 33.
Nate Jones is a smart guy. He's a seasoned guy. He's a fast guy. He's a tough guy. What he wasn't last year was a good cornerback. He was serviceable at times, god-awful at other times. He was OKAY on special teams, but he missed SEVERAL tackles during the season. He does have all those good traits though. He should be better than he was in 2008. What is holding him back? Just lack of playing time? Or is he not as good as the Trifecta said he was...

Joey Thomas, # 22.
When the Dolphins allowed Thomas to replace Jason Allen in the nickel package last year, I thought they had given up hope on the season and were trying to get him some experience. The reality is, we just didn't have any depth. Thomas had a decent training camp last year, followed by a decent pre-season before being cut. I thought he was going to make the roster last year and thought they were wrong to cut him and keep Jones. Well months later they re-signed him off the Arby's practice squad just to show me why they cut him in the first place. But it wasn't his fault. It was the coaches' fault for taking a guy off the street and sticking him in the game. He wasn't ready. Now he's had the time to prepare, we'll find out who Joey Thomas really is. Football player or janitor.

So those are great eight. Can you find the five who'll thrive? Or do you think there'll be six making picks?

Last Line of Defense, Part 1 - The Safeties

Of all the training camp competitions, the safety position could be the most 'set' position with the fresh contracts being handed out to Yeremiah Bell, Gibril Wilson, and Tyrone Culver and the drafting of Chris Clemons, widely believed to be the top value pick of the Dolphins draft.

But still, Clemons IS a rookie, and guys like Ethan Kilmer and Courtney Bryan might just be 'hungry' enough to push for the final roster spot. There are outlying circumstances as well, depending on special teams, and the development of 'big' cornerbacks like Jason Allen and Sean Smith. It might be possible to only carry three safeties with these bigger body corners allowing for sharper coverage and more speed. So there will still be competition going on in training camp at the Safety position. Here are the bodies:

Yeremiah Bell, # 37.
Bell saved the Dolphins' backsides last year at least twice when he made two final drive stopping pass breakups by the opponent. He also led the team in tackles, and most importantly, he played in all 16 games. The only thing that can stop him now is a relapse in the health category. I'm expecting a pro-bowl-type year from Bell, as he has the confidence boost from last year to actually intercept some of those passes he usually bats down. I also expect there to be more safety blitzes this year and Bell is a likely player in that scheme.

Gibril Wilson, # 28.
I do my best not to watch any Oakland games, but I have caught glimpses of Wilson's play last year. He was a beast against Miami last year, collecting 10 tackles and a sack and had 7 games with double digits in tackles. In a 49-26 loss to New England (we held them to 48-28...we're sooo much better than Oakland), he collected 12 tackles, a sack and an interception, and he did this OFF THE BENCH. The guy has the tools. What we don't know is if he will gel with Bell, and pick up the scheme to the point he's able to not think too much back there and rely on his instincts.

Tyrone Culver, # 29.
Culver was one of our most impressive 'bench' players in 2008 along with Randy Starks. Rarely did I feel unease with him coming in to the game and he did a LOT as Miami frequently played a 3 safety-set with Bell, Hill, and Culver. Culver also rested Bell at strong safety, and played special teams. He is not flashy or a ball-hawk or even a big-hitter. What he is SOLID. Solid all-around.

Chris Clemons, # 30.
Clemons was part of what I called 'an amazing secondary' back in October 2008. In the first month of NCAA football, I had already christened the Clemson bunch as the beastliest of the safety duos, with Clemons and Michael Hamlin just NAILING people and making big plays. Hamlin, however got all the press, as a big, ball-hawking strong safety who also was a media-hound. Meanwhile, the free safety, Clemons, did not rack up huge interception numbers, but he did rack up impressive numbers despite playing next to Hamlin. Clemons also played in 55 straight games and had ZERO injuries in that time. He ran a 4.33 40 yd dash at the combine. He came into the draft ranked as the 3rd best free safety in the draft and was project to go in the 3rd round. I know I, along with a lot of other fans, am very excited to see this guy in training camp and the pre-season.

Courtney Bryan, # 47.
The odds are against Bryan making the roster this year. He is one of the few remaining cogs from the 2007 season, signed as a undrafted rookie, and relegated primarily to special teams. Since our special teams coverage has not been particularly special, and Bryan hasn't been a standout on that crew, I would suspect this is his last chance, really. I can't say I know much about his playing/practice prowess, but he has been burned by several kick returners including that 93 yard punt return against us last year vs the Raiders.

Ethan Kilmer, # 43.
Originally I didn't see any chance that Kilmer was going to make the roster, but thatwas before I found out who he is. I didn't realize at first that Kilmer was actually a wide receiver in College and that he actually played with fellow Dolphin, Cam Wake, at Penn State. He was drafted by the Bengals and he played WR, CB and S during games and practices there. He was injured (thigh) during pre-season in his sophomore year and placed on IR before being released and eventually signed by the Dolphins. So, he did show up and do all kinds of things for the Bengals in his rookie year, then didn't play at all in 2008. Last I heard he was making noise in OTAs, which is more than can be said for ALL of the other safeties in camp. So maybe...who knows?

These are the 2009 Dolphin safeties through training camp. I suspect they will all be kept until the final or at least next to final cuts following the pre-season. With Culver shoring up the 3rd spot, who do you think makes the final cut for the 4th, or do you think the Dolphins will sacrifice one spot in order to keep an extra cornerback?

(Keep in mind, Clemons would never clear waivers)