Thursday, April 16, 2009

If I were a betting man...

  • Newly-signed Punter Jy Bond will be around as competition for Brandon Fields, but would need a lot of things to fall into place to actually make the 53-man team. Bond is an Australian soccer guy who was basically a minor-leaguer/practice squad guy. He has spent a couple of years trying to become an NFL punter.

  • John Madden, newly-retired, will still be around on Thanksgiving with one of his freakish five-legged turkeys.
  • I've finally caught up on my work here thus can turn to more BS speculating. It seems to me the frequent interest by the Dolphins in drafting a tight-end is a potential HUGE smoke-screen, meaning they like the kid, Haynos, and he will be featured more in 2009, eventually replacing either Fasano or Martin.
  • There are a few writers who feel like they've figured out who THE first pick of the Dolphins will be, or at least the guy they're targeting for that pick. They do this by working it out like a math problem. I do the same below. All this is more BS, and I'd expect the Dolphins haven't completed their draft board yet (I would expect it to be closing down on Sunday night). But one guru is CONVINCED that Rey Maualuga is THE guy. Another guy, a Miami sportswriter is CONVINCED that Michael Johnson is THE guy. I found that surprising since, well first of all, I thought the same thing a while back (check the archives) but also because I now project Johnson below that 25th pick. If I were a betting man, I'd bet these two camps are both wrong and that Miami will do some convulated trade involving 5 teams to get out of the #25 position and pick up more picks and/or improve their position in other rounds. Or we could just stick at #25.
  • Also, short of a top-talent guy falling ten spots to us, I still think the Dolphins will take either a defensive line-man or a 'tweener linebacker. Maualuga is really only going to play one position and that position pretty much already has a locked-in starter in Crowder. Johnson, equally would play the Will, which means he definitely wouldn't start. Would the Dolphins really use their 1st round pick on a reserve-player? I don't think so. That's why the pick is likely either a 'tweener linebacker that can beat out Ayodele or Roth, a wide receiver that can beat out Bess/Camarillo/London, or a cornerback that can beat out one of the Allen's or at the very least beat out everyone else for the nickel spot. The only concession to this theory would be a defensive lineman. That's because while there's no guarantee Merling and Langford would hold on to their starting jobs, they would naturally rotate alot of snaps with any other DEs on the team, so while technically not a guaranteed starter, the new guy would be guaranteed to get a lot of snaps, especially with Vonnie Holliday out fo the picture.
So if I were a betting man, I'd narrow down the guessing to a linebacker that could play BOTH inside and outside (Cushing, Matthews, Barwin), a wide receiver that is an UPGRADE and would most likely start (Crabtree, Britt-Nicks), a cornerback that would at the very least be the 3rd best corner on the team (Butler, Moore, Davis, Jenkins), or a DE who would be a lock to be in the rotation (Jackson, Jerry, Hood).

Out of Cushing, Matthews, Barwin, Crabtree, Britt, Nicks, Butler, Moore, Davis, Jenkins, Jackson, Jerry, and Hood:

Davis is out due to authority issues.
Jenkins is out because he's over-rated but will still be drafted too early.
Crabtree is out because he's going to Cleveland if Seattle passes.
Moore is out because he's graded lower than the rest.
Cushing will be gone.
Jackson will be gone.
Jerry will be gone.

So we're down to Matthews, Barwin, Britt, Nicks, Butler, and Hood. Six players. Want to stop here? Ok we'll press on....

Matthews - if drug tests are negative, his stock will rise thanks to a phenomenal pro-day and individual workouts. He will be gone by #25.

Barwin - I feel it in my bones that New England will pick a running back at #23. They would be the first team that Barwin could be taken by at that position.

Britt - I see him quietly moving up teams' boards. Has been very low-key during the lead-up to the draft, but has two extremely impressive years of game film and good solid combine/pro-day numbers. In my mind, he's at least an equal grade with Nicks.

Nicks - we know he's graded in that area. Solid guy but I still think Britt is better. To be honest, I'm not sure Nicks was even the best or even SECOND-best receiver for UNC. He has the numbers though.

Butler - the only CB left. The Dolphins have worked him out twice and interviewed him at least twice.

Hood - I have not seen reports of him working out for the Dolphins. That must mean that he HAS in private, right? Might be overgraded due to demand for big D-linemen. Might be a reach at #25.

I think both receivers might be a reach as well, though probably a justifiable one. But let's knock them out too.

That leaves: Connor Barwin and Darius Butler.

This is where it actually gets easier. Out of those two, only one has the measurables that the Trifecta likes.

With the #25 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, The Miami Dolphins choose....

No comments:

Post a Comment