Friday, April 23, 2010

2010 Draft - Round 1 Report

Well round 1 has come and gone, we got a legitimate 3-4 DE, and a HIGH second round pick, so while there may be some disappointment in the fact we didn't draft one of our favorites, we still did better than most teams.

Buffalo used their pick on CJ Spiller - a great playmaker, but not a Left Tackle or a QB, their two biggest needs and best value pick for the #9 overall.

Cleveland took CB Joe Haden at #7 instead of a QB or a defensive lineman. I think that pick may turn out to be even worse that Buffalo's.

Perhaps the biggest surprise was Jacksonville taking Cal DE, Tyson Alualu with the 11th overall pick. I had Alualu in the mid 50s on my board.

Oakland swiped up Alabama ILB Rolando McClain and early reports are they are trying to switch to a 3-4. It makes sense for the personnel they have, but they will have to target a weakside OLB in round two - they pick one spot ahead of us at #39 overall so Miami may want to try to trade up with Cleveland (or whomever Cleveland trades with because they are expected to try to get to #33 to get a QB.

My favorite prospect, Michigan's Brandon Graham, went to a 4-3 team - another head-scratching move. In fact, there were several head-scratchers once we got through the first 6 picks. Ultimately, once again, the New England Patriots worked the board to perfection, picking up extra draft picks and still getting a great player in Devin McCourty - though they had Jared Odrick very high on their board as well.

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Now, let's talk Odrick. He is 6'5", 305 lbs and pretty much has been that way since 8th grade - this is not a guy who has grown or gained an inch during 4 years of college - he played at the same size in HS, and he played allover the field in HS, not just as a DT. He's not a fantastic player, in comparison to Suh and McCoy, but what he does bring to the table is drive, determination, coachability, ZERO diva-itis, and long arms which help broaden his tackle area. I'm planning on watching a PSU game or two to get some more analysis done, but from what I have seen, he is a very good tackler. He's also a guy who played several positions in College, in PSU's hybrid defense there was a lot of 5-2 fronts similar to what Miami does so perhaps that was a factor in their decision. We all know that Miami wants to be able to take 7 DL to the game and rotate them constantly to keep them fresh and also to prevent o-linemen from 'locking on' to any specific player. It's a great theory, but it was hard to see it working all the time in 2009 - perhaps it was a personnel issue.

At the same time, there is a very strong possibility that either Paul Soliai, Philip Merling or Tony McDaniel are going to be traded. If not then I wouldn't expect any of the 3rd tier guys: Ikeaka Alma-Francis, Ryan Baker, and Lionel Dotson to be around much longer.

I think someone threw out the possibility of us going to a 4-3 scheme. That would entail us asking a couple of players to put on 30 lbs and the entire front 7 to unlearn everything they've been doing for the last two years - not to mention Bill Parcells relinquishing full control - and Mike Nolan changing his mind-set of the last decade. It's not going to happen.

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Now, let's discuss what's going to happen tonight. The Dolphins have the 40th, and 73rd overall picks tonight. We have 2 shots at greatness.

Most fans want or think we should go OLB here. I thought so last night too but I've thought about it and now think it may not be good value at #40. I think we should wait until #73 or later. However, there are many options, so here are my three suggestions. Please chime in with your comments and your dream scenarios.

SCENARIO #1:

#40 - Sergio Kindle, OLB - medical issues forced Merling to drop, Dolphins could get an even better deal here.

#73 - Morgan Burnett, FS - The safety out of Georgia Tech could be a real steal at 73. In pads he looks like Sean Smith's clone, with his 6'3", 210lb frame topped with dreads.
The difference is he can hit people and tackle. His ball-skills are stellar with 14 picks in 3 seasons.




SCENARIO #2:
#40 - Nate Allen, FS - Allen is probably the highest rated Safety still on the board unless you are a USC fan. To me, Allen is very much like Yeremiah Bell, and that's not a bad thing considering how valuable Bell has been and the fact he's getting older. Allen is a solid, physical player and could play both safety positions.



#73 - Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, DB
- Owusu-Ansah represents value with his position flexibility, being able to play FS and nickel corner, and his return skills. Miami could double up on safety on Day 2, and get a couple of OLBs on Saturday.



SCENARIO # 3:

#40 - Golden Tate, WR - Let's be realistic, Brandon Marshall helps bring Bess and Camarillo from average to slightly above average.  Using the 2nd rd pick on an already above average or even pretty good WR and then lining him up across from Marshall, would then make him good or REALLY good.  This would also benefit Marshall and Henne and of course whichever shmuck we have playing tight-end.  Tate would be really good value at #40 and can return kicks.


#73 -  Torrell Troup, DT -  One of the best options to replace Soliai, Troup's work ethic is stellar, he's intelligent, and he's 6'3", 314 lbs.  If he lasts till 73, we should not hesitate to take him.

39 comments:

  1. Tin,
    Just a quickie before I read your blog (no one reads your stuff anyway, blah, blah, blah - lol) but are you streaming tonight? Dan W was asking on the last blog.

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  2. Here's a tweet I did find on Kindle, but I read another that has now disappeared.

    <span>"Sergio Kindle falls due to medical concerns: Texas pass rusher was projected as a first-rounder"</span>
    <span></span>
    <span>The other claimed he had microfractures in his knees that would require surgery and him sitting out all his rookie year? BS or no? I'm out of here now but wonder how that will pan out. Enjoy the rest of the draft all.</span>

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  3. If a link is available, I will.  The action starts 90 mins earlier today.

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  4. I LOVE the breakdown Tin!!!!! I have learned so much since I started coming here and I really appreciate it. Even my husband last night was like "how do YOU know who these players are???" Since I am usually quite draft impaired--even though I love watching it every year!

    Are you have the chat tonight as well?

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  5. I don't know the details on that, but I did find out yesterday he suffers from narcolepsy.  Perhaps he was in church praying on his knees and he fell asleep and woke up three days later with knee problems.

    Personally I think the report could be BS because we would have heard about it after the combine, or after his pro-day.

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  6. Keep in mind I had a late 1st to mid 2nd grade on Kindle since January.  I've never considered him a top to mid 1st talent.

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  7. I like scenario #2 the best, although #3 is tempting.  I just have more faith in the WR corps than some I guess.  So Tin, are you officially not endorsing the "Odrick to NT" theory?  Or any other player (Starks) going to NT? 

    Is it at all realistic for Merling to pull a Roth and move to SOLB? Longer arms, more athletic.....

    I guess I would rather see some guys we have converting than being traded (exception Soliai).  I can't wait to see how this keeps progressing!

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  8. Yes the chat will be up this afternoon as well.

    I would love to take the credit for your improved draft-skills, but the truth is, you made the effort to read about it. 

    Now, another topic, are you going to change your avatar or are you switching to the dark side?

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  9. Golden Tate Nyet!!  Notre Dame players have been flops the last few years.
    Besides we have a WR logjam & holes with flubs & a senior citizen.  Maybe a TE, but lets' stick with DB & DL.
    Maybe OL & WR in the later picks.

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  10. i just love there is some excitement going on!!!  Was anybody else going crazy not knowing the details of our trade last night?

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  11. If you look back in the archives, you'll see I wrote an article last year about the Dolphins moving away frmo the traditional 3-4 with the 3-down nose tackle and moving to a rotational corps of 300lb guys who can slide around, sub in and out, flip sides, play nose, etc.

    I don't think anything has changed there, but hopefully Nolan can make it work better than Passthebaloney

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  12. The misinformation that came out in the first 5 minutes was insane - thank heavens miamidolphins.com was updating on the fly - you know their info is real because they would've gotten it before the draft even started

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  13. At #40 I want a pass rusher. Sergio Kindle (if he's there) or Everson Griffen (although I know Tin doesn't like USC guys). At #73 I'd go for the best available FREE Safety (which rules out guys like Cam Chancellor who project as SS at the next level).

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  14. Yeah I checked that out and things are making much more sense now (until we draft Cody AND Troup and trade Henne for Tebow)

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  15. I forgot to ask: Does anyone have a live stream for tonight that is not on justin.tv? I live in Europe and the draft is not televised at all over here. With justin.tv I always get a message that my country's national limit is reached and get kicked out.

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  16. I don't have a problem with Griffen at 40, though I suspect he may be taken by the time we pick.  He has a strange history at USC - he started both the 2007 and 2008 seasons as the starter but got benched both years after 2 games.  So I wonder what that's all about.

    In some updated mocks tody I'm noticing Kindle is not even listed, so maybe this medical issue really is that serious.

    Personally I project Kam Chancellor to plays FS, I like him a lot.

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  17. Tin I like your scenarios... though my dream scenario is combining your 2nd and 3rd.

    Nate Allen/Torrell Troup... that's been one of my fantasies since this process began. If it played out i'd be ecstatic.  I love both of these players and they fit needs of ours.

    Your 2nd scenario kind of left me scratching my head... I obviously like Nate Allen, I also like Akwasi Owusu-Ansah... but I've always thought both of them would be better as FS's... Nate Allen obviously, but i look at Akwasi and I see a FS. So I think it's a one or the other situation.

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  18. That & it went to commercial everytime the dolphins were up or about to make their selection... The suspense reminded me of watching a dolphin game.

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  19. Good stuff, Tin. I'd like to see us get an OLB and S in the next two rounds. Burnett looks like a trifecta type of player and Owusu-Ansah is a good prospect as well. The trifecta could be interested in Koa Misi and Jason Worilds at OLB.

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  20. Have to say I'd love to get Burnett.  That video was the first highlights I've seen on the player.  Hopefully he's still available at 73.  Definitely looks like he could come in immediately and contribute. 

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  21. Yes the commercials were timed to a tee to take any Dolphins discussion off the table.  It was uncanny.

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  22. The trifecta likes to double up on picks when they need a starter.

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  23. Thanks for the video of Odrick on the previous post...I really like this new Dolphin!

    Is there a reason you chose a 2007 highlight for Nate Allen?  I didn't really pay attention to the title of the video until I started watching it and then was laughing because lo and behold there was....Pat White!  lol

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  24. yeah... that's to be sure, but in this situation I don't see it... I think Culver is a good backup and a capable starter. I hope we just go 1 fs, and take a SS development player day 3.

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  25. If you look up any USF defensive highlight video on youtube from the last
    four years you'll see at least 3 instances of Pat White being destroyed.
    Trust me when I say, I know Pat White. I knew what he was before we drafted
    him.

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  26. There aren't really any good highlight videos of Nate Allen except his 2007 season, at least i haven't seen any... not that he didn't have great highlights, just nobody took time to make a video, he arguably had a an equal or better season in 09.

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  27. This is true and we need OLB help as much as this country needs a bailout!

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  28. Tin,

    What do you think is going to happen with DL with the Odrick pick?  I saw your post earlier about rotating, which I'm sure is always part of it.  Do you see Merling being moved?  Will Odrick challenge Soliai or Langford?

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  29. Yeah USF doesn't have a lot of televised games to begin with and when they
    do no one records them

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  30. About an hour left until draft time :D

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  31. I think McDaniel can be traded to Cleveland to jump to #38.
    OR - we could package Merling and our 3rd (#73) to move up to #58 with
    Arizona.
    OR - we could trade Justin Smiley, our 40th and a late 6th/early 7th to move
    up to #33 with St Louis.
    I could keep going....

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  32. Tim The EnchanterApril 23, 2010 at 2:16 PM

    Chris Cook is another good DB prospect who could play corner or safety.

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  33. I'm not really a fan of his, but I think the main problem is his draft grade.  I think he comes in around 3rd/4th.  Media reports all say high 2nd.

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  34. chatroll is open!  I'll see everyone in 45 minutes!

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  35. Tim The EnchanterApril 23, 2010 at 2:29 PM

    I've heard a lot of good things about Cook and that a lot of teams are interested in him. Because he has good size 6-2 210 4.45 speed, can play corner and fall back at safety if he doesn't pan out at there, teams like that in players. That's why I think Dan Williams went where I thought he should go. He can't play safety. LOL

    If he can't play NT in a 3-4 there is nowhere for him to go. In a 4-3 he's a DT and can probably have a good career there. One dimensional players usually get drafted a bit later.

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  36. Okay... since it's hailing like crazy here and I have been awoken, my mind started wandering... So i'll post on why I now feel pretty postive about our first 3 picks.

    For Starters what were our Needs going into this draft: NT, FS, OLB, LG, TE

    With the news breaking via Jeff Ireland that Randy Starks is moving to NT, and that he isn't just making the move to NT he is currently intended to be our 2010 Starting NT that to me changes things. Randy Starks has the prototypical NT size, this will be his 3rd season in a 3-4 defense, Jay Ratliff and Ferg took about that long before they got their shot to start, Starks is just 26 years old. NT need Filled, DE need open.

    Jared Odrick goes from BPA, to BPA who fills a need. When Jeff Ireland said he suspected we'd know very soon what position Odrick was brought into play he wasn't kidding, the smokescreen is now clearing and they felt comfortable letting that cat out of the bag. They obviously wanted teams to think they were targetting a NT for the first 3 rounds, for whatever reason they feel comfortable now revealing they aren't overtly in need of one, I suspect that's because they now want teams to not associate us with NT so we stand a better chance to add a NT depth/project. Thus it was no longer beneficial to keep the Randy Starks move a secret. Jeff Owens fits the bill as a NT target.

    Koa Misi, to me fits a need, I consider him a SOLB. He had multiple snaps in a two point stance as a DE. <span><span><span>"has a nice repertoire of tricks ... not cameron wake in terms of outside speed, but very creative rusher" - Ireland. Misi was 275 at DT his sophomore year, 244 at Senior bowl, 251 at his pro day. Kid can change his weight to fit a more stout Parcells mold. Ireland sited his versatilty having played "DL,DE,OLB,ILB" as enticing us to take him and that we believe he will play OLB for us.
    </span></span></span>

    John Jerry, the much maligned Captain Hemorrhoid... I haven't watched this kid a lot, as I suspect many people who dislike this pick haven't. That's a bit unfair way to go about this, ultimately he does fill a need at LG assuming Smiley is on the way out. From scouting around here is what i've found on the kid. Scouts Inc. ranks him the 4th best guard. From multiple reports he is a very agile guard who is excellent when pulling, He has high awareness when picking up stunts or blitzes, Good Instincts. People would like to see him get a meaner streak, be more of a "mauler", I'd say he's surrounded by good influences in that regard at miami. Again, I haven't watched enough to throw my judgement on him out like I know for certain, that's just what i've read.

    In retrospect I have a positive feeling about all of these picks, especially our #1 Jared Odrick, i always like it, but now I LOVE it. I think now that the smokescreen has cleared a bit in retrospect what we've done makes a lot of sense and i'm left feeling optimistic.

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  37. <span>Okay... since it's hailing like crazy here and I have been awoken, my mind started wandering... So i'll post on why I now feel pretty postive about our first 3 picks. For Starters what were our Needs going into this draft: NT, FS, OLB, LG, TE  
     
    With the news breaking via Jeff Ireland that Randy Starks is moving to NT, and that he isn't just making the move to NT he is currently intended to be our 2010 Starting NT that to me changes things. Randy Starks has the prototypical NT size, this will be his 3rd season in a 3-4 defense, Jay Ratliff and Ferg took about that long before they got their shot to start, Starks is just 26 years old. NT need Filled, DE need open.  
     
    Jared Odrick goes from BPA, to BPA who fills a need. When Jeff Ireland said he suspected we'd know very soon what position Odrick was brought into play he wasn't kidding, the smokescreen is now clearing and they felt comfortable letting that cat out of the bag. They obviously wanted teams to think they were targetting a NT for the first 3 rounds, for whatever reason they feel comfortable now revealing they aren't overtly in need of one, I suspect that's because they now want teams to not associate us with NT so we stand a better chance to add a NT depth/project. Thus it was no longer beneficial to keep the Randy Starks move a secret. Jeff Owens fits the bill as a NT target.  
     
    Koa Misi, to me fits a need, I consider him a SOLB. He had multiple snaps in a two point stance as a DE. <span><span><span>"has a nice repertoire of tricks ... not cameron wake in terms of outside speed, but very creative rusher" - Ireland. Misi was 275 at DT his sophomore year, 244 at Senior bowl, 251 at his pro day. Kid can change his weight to fit a more stout Parcells mold. Ireland sited his versatilty having played "DL,DE,OLB,ILB" as enticing us to take him and that we believe he will play OLB for us.  </span></span></span>
     
    John Jerry, the much maligned Captain Hemorrhoid... I haven't watched this kid a lot, as I suspect many people who dislike this pick haven't. That's a bit unfair way to go about this, ultimately he does fill a need at LG assuming Smiley is on the way out. From scouting around here is what i've found on the kid. Scouts Inc. ranks him the 4th best guard. From multiple reports he is a very agile guard who is excellent when pulling, He has high awareness when picking up stunts or blitzes, Good Instincts. People would like to see him get a meaner streak, be more of a "mauler", I'd say he's surrounded by good influences in that regard at miami. Again, I haven't watched enough to throw my judgement on him out like I know for certain, that's just what i've read.  
     
    In retrospect I have a positive feeling about all of these picks, especially our #1 Jared Odrick, i always like it, but now I LOVE it. I think now that the smokescreen has cleared a bit in retrospect what we've done makes a lot of sense and i'm left feeling optimistic.</span>

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  38. The sporting news draft guide had us mocked at taking ...
    pick 43: Jared Odrik
    pick 73: John Jerry at

    4th Round: S-Stuckey
    5th Round: RB-James Starks
    6th Round: TE-Jameson Konz and WR-Mike Williams
    7th Round: LB-Mike McLaughlin, LB-Keaton Kristick and RB Lonyae Miller

    Didn't find it online, think this was the hard copy.  Posted on Phinsheaven.com

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